中国的经济发展战略与地区收入差距

本文认为 ,当前中国大陆各省区市之间发展水平差距的主要原因在于 ,重工业优先发展的赶超战略下形成的生产要素存量配置结构 ,与许多省区市的要素禀赋结构决定的比较优势相违背 ,从而导致大量的赶超企业缺乏自生能力。基于各省区市的数据进行的实证研究与我们的假说相容。     

出口与增长:中国三十年经验实证(1978-2008)

改革开放三十年来,我国经济和时外贸易成就斐然.那么,对外贸易与经济增长两者之间究竟是什么关系,中国奇迹般的经济增长何以能够实现,出口对于增长贡献了什么,我们从出口和增长的关联中能够得到哪些经验.本文在全面解析三十年经济成就以及参考国内外文献的基础上,实证检验和分析了出口推动中国经济增长的作用,并从中总结和得到了相关的经验扣结论.     

Input–Output Structural Decomposition Analysis: A Critical Appraisal

Over the past decade, input–output structural decomposition analysis (SDA) has developed into a major analytical tool. We review the development of SDA and its relationship to other methodologies. We present the fundamental principles of alternative approaches to deriving SDA estimating equations and explore the various decompositions of changes in IO tables. We also identify several complications and unresolved issues. Most importantly, we find that a rigorous grounding in economic theory is lacking for SDA, but we are able to offer some suggestions as to how it might be established.     

“德合”船基于MOSES软件的DP作业分析

结合“德合”船DP动力定位系统,以康斯博格DP吊重测试文件为基础,基于MOSES软件对DP吊重测试过程中船舶关键数值进行模拟分析。建立了基于Moses软件的船舶模型及计算模型,对吊重过程中船舶吃水变化进行分析,选择典型吃水给到水动力模型中计算DP动力响应。从计算结果可以看出,随着吊机受力增加,船舶吃水逐渐增加,DP系统输出功率明显增加且对应关系明显。此计算结果为“德合”船DP测试安全进行提供数据支持,该计算模型也可以为以后海上DP吊装作业积累数据经验并提供参考。     

影响力系数和感应度系数计算方法的探析

讨论了影响力系数和感应度系数的主要计算方法。利用河北省2002年投入产出表,对不同计算方法进行了计算比较论证;阐述了影响力系数和感应度系数的确切含义,并对影响力系数和感应度系数的规范计算提出了一些看法和建议。     

Trends and Forecasts for Inbound Tourism to China

Summary

The development of tourism in China over the last two decades is reviewed. It is argued that the success of the economic reforms in China which has resulted in fast economic growth has also been the main cause of rapid tourism growth in China. Forecasts of international tourist arrivals by source country market and destination region within China are generated over the period 2001-05. An integrative approach is used which combines both time-series and econometric methodologies, termed structural integrated time-series econometric analysis (SITEA).     

The role of social capital in encouraging residents' pro-environmental behaviors in community-based ecotourism

This study integrated the theoretical perspective of social capital into community-based ecotourism (CBET). Two destinations were selected to test the conceptual model to see whether social capital improves cooperation between community residents and the coordination of CBET development, and whether its role is persuasive and encourages residents' pro-environmental behaviors. The sample consisted of 420 residents living in two typical ecotourism destinations in China. Findings from a two-stage structural equation model analysis show that economic benefits have a direct impact on residents' pro-environmental behaviors; and the cognitive, rather than structural social capital has a partially mediating effects on this relationship. These findings indicate that a high level of social capital, particularly the cognitive variant, is instrumental in encouraging residents' pro-environmental behaviors.     

论社会保障的生命周期及中国的周期阶段

从国家保障、福利国家、强制储蓄和社会保险等主要的社会保障模式中 ,可以看到由产生、成长、高峰、衰退和消亡等阶段组成的社会保障体制的生命周期。中国的新社会保障体制在其生命周期上已经完成产生阶段 ,正处于成长阶段的中期 ,经过另外三十年左右的努力 ,将可以进入高峰阶段。为此 ,中国需要在社会保障体制的改革和建设中对农村保障、养老保障、失业保障和医疗保障诸方面 ,付出一系列特殊而具体的努力     

Economic impact of onabotulinumtoxinA for overactive bladder with urinary incontinence in Europe

Background: Overactive bladder (OAB) is a common condition that has a significant impact on patients’ health-related quality-of-life and is associated with a substantial economic burden to healthcare systems. OnabotulinumtoxinA has a well-established efficacy and safety profile as a treatment for OAB; however, the economic impact of using onabotulinumtoxinA has not been well described.

Methods: An economic model was developed to assess the budget impact associated with OAB treatment in France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK, using onabotulinumtoxinA alongside best supportive care (BSC)—comprising incontinence pads and/or anticholinergic use and/or clean intermittent catheterisation (CIC)—vs BSC alone. The model time horizon spanned 5 years, and included direct costs associated with treatment, BSC, and adverse events.

Results: Per 100,000 patients in each country, the use of onabotulinumtoxinA resulted in estimated cost savings of €97,200 (Italy), €71,580 (Spain), and €19,710 (UK), and cost increases of €23,840 in France and €284,760 in Germany, largely due to day-case and inpatient administration, respectively. Projecting these results to the population of individuals aged 18 years and above gave national budget saving estimates of €9,924,790, €27,458,290, and €48,270,760, for the UK, Spain, and Italy, respectively, compared to cost increases of €12,160,020 and €196,086,530 for France and Germany, respectively. Anticholinergic treatment and incontinence pads were the largest contributors to overall spending on OAB management when onabotulinumtoxinA use was not increased, and remained so in four of five scenarios where onabotulinumtoxinA use was increased. This decreased resource use was equivalent to cost offsets ranging from €106,110 to €176,600 per 100,000 population.

Conclusions: In three of five countries investigated, the use of onabotulinumtoxinA, in addition to BSC, was shown to result in healthcare budget cost savings over 5 years. Scenario analyses showed increased costs in Germany and France were largely attributable to the treatment setting rather than onabotulinumtoxinA acquisition costs.     

沿海欠发达地区经济联动开发模式研究——以江苏沿海开发为例

区域经济联动发展作为一种区域经济合作方式,受到密切关注。沿海欠发达地区面对经济高地的压力,要紧紧抓住其发展机遇,充分挖掘自身优势,打造新的经济发展模式,才能赶超经济发达地区。本文在总结国内区域经济联动发展理论与实践的基础上,提出沿海欠发达地区要建立多角度、多层次的经济联动开发模式。首先要实现城市联动,通过不断强化中心城市的集聚、扩散作用和壮大县域经济实力,打造经济中心与腹地经济联动发展的沿海经济圈;其次要实现产业联动,通过传统特色产业与新兴高科技产业联动和陆地产业与海洋产业联动相结合,打造支柱产业与新兴产业联动发展的沿海经济带;还要实现＂港口-城镇-产业＂联动,通过港口与城镇联动和港口与产业联动,打造港口、产业和城镇三位一体的港口经济区。希望可以为沿海欠发达地区的经济发展提供理论依据和借鉴参考。