重大突发公共卫生事件下的金融市场反应

本文旨在评估金融市场对重大突发公共卫生事件的反应,尤其是上市公司所在地的公共治理能力是否会影响上市公司股票收益率。其中,城市公共治理能力以基于实时数据计算的防疫能力和复工复产能力指标来刻画。主要发现如下:第一,防疫能力会影响投资者情绪,但不会直接影响股票收益率;第二,所在地复工复产能力对股票收益率存在正向影响;第三,机制分析表明,经营基本面更容易受疫情影响的企业,如小企业、成长型企业、所在地数字金融基础设施较差的企业,其股票收益率对当地复工复产能力的反应更敏感。本文结论表明,在全国一盘棋的抗疫努力下,投资者对于战胜疫情有信心,短期内复工复产能力对金融市场更重要。从应对措施来看,短期内可对比较脆弱的企业实施精准果断的帮扶,长期内可考虑加强地区防疫能力建设和数字基础设施建设。     

物流企业人力资源准备度评价指标体系的构建

通过对物流企业人员流失和人力资源准备度进行分析,基于平衡计分卡和360度考核方法构建了物流企业人力资源准备度的关键绩效考核指标,通过对指标的量化考核,不断完善企业人力资源准备度相关流程,最终提高物流企业人力资源准备度的有效性。     

铁路车站值班员应急处置能力评价体系构建

车站值班员应急处置能力评价,可以为新入职人员选拔和在岗职业培训提供理论依据和参考。结合车站值班员的作业内容和要求,以安全意识、响应能力、联系能力和操作能力为准则层,选取行车簿册、凭证填记准确率、命令下达、办理准确率和揭挂标识准确率等共计11项指标建立评价体系,并给出每项指标的量化测度方法。通过AHP法确定准则层之间的权重和指标之间的权重,构建基于模糊综合评价法的数学模型。随机选取某个车站值班员进行实例计算,由8位专家对车站值班员应急处置各项指标给出评语等级,验证所提出方法的可行性和有效性,并根据权重的高低,提出优化途径,即提升风险研判精确度与信息通报准确率2项指标的优秀率,能够显著提升车站值班员综合评价的结果。     

基于灾度相对分类的应急物流中心选址

与普通物流服务以成本效益为目标不同,应急物流服务要求以时间效益最大化和灾害损失最小化为目标,因而普通物流服务的设施中心选址的方法往往不适用于应急物流服务的设施中心选址.而现有应急物流服务设施中心的选址模型存在一定的不足,而且没有考虑各受灾点的受灾程度及相应的应急物资需求的差异.为此,本文提出基于灾度相对分类的应急设施服务中心选址算法,以聚类分析方法选取灾损较严重的受灾点为服务设施节点,然后采用重心法进行应急服务设施中心选址.最后,以实例仿真说明算法的有效可行.     

基于供应链视角下的应急物流控制体系建设研究

中国是世界上自然灾害发生较多的国家之一,如何有效预防与应对自然灾害等突发公共事件是包括中国在内的全世界各国政府希望得到有效解决的难题,文章通过梳理相关研究脉络,发现国内外现有文献大多是从一般性应急物流的视角探讨其构建以及研究应急物流某个具体的运作环节等问题,在总结了目前我国在应急物流控制体系中存在应急物流的运作机制有待提高、指挥不到位、技术欠发达、监督机制缺失诸问题的基础上,提出构建基于供应链视角下的应急物流控制体系的研究思路,应急物流的控制体系一般应由组织管理系统、安全监管系统、预警及风险防范系统、信息系统、激励评价系统5个子系统构成。基于供应链视角下认识对待应急物流控制体系则更应该从长远性、全局性与战略性的角度来考虑,使其更加具有计划性、协调性。本文尝试从供应链视角对应急物流控制体系的战略协同、监管、预警与评价等领域进行较系统的阐述。     

Optimizing large-scale emergency medical system operations on highways using the hypercube queuing model

In this study, we present a series of well-known optimization methods to address two related decisions associated with the design of large-scale ambulance operations on highways: (1) The question of location, and (2) the issue of districting. As a result of computer storage and runtime constraints, previous approaches have only considered small-to-moderate scale problem scenarios, generally employing exact hypercube queuing models integrated into optimization procedures. We overcome these limitations here by embedding a fast and accurate hypercube approximation algorithm adapted for partial backup dispatch policies in single- and multi-start greedy heuristics. The proposed methods are tested on small-to-large-scale problems involving up to 100 ambulances. The results suggest that our approach is a viable alternative for the analysis and configuration of large-scale highway emergency medical systems, providing reasonable accuracy and affordable run times.     

Multiple perspectives on planning for emergencies: An introduction to the special issue on planning and foresight for emergency preparedness and management

This introduction highlights the diversity of national localities, research methods, case studies, and topics covered by the papers selected for inclusion in the special issue on “Planning and foresight methodologies in emergency preparedness and management.” It then provides a detailed summary of each study, emphasizing what the editors feel are the most important contributions. Concluding remarks include a call for future studies that are needed. An example is planning for ways of supporting and integrating citizen participation in all phases of crisis management, a topic that is missing from this collection.     

Inpatient bed allocation policy under uncertain capacity

This paper concerns the problem of inpatient bed allocation for two classes of patients (scheduled and non-scheduled) when there is uncertainty about daily available capacity. In the afternoon of each day, patients from the scheduled class, also called backlogged elective admissions, are selected from a waiting list, for the admission on the next day. The non-scheduled class, also called emergent admissions, are new requests that arise randomly each day with emergent needs. The capacity of available beds for a medical specialty to provide hospitalization services is uncertain when backlogged elective patients are chosen. Admitting too many of elective patients may result in exceeding a day’s capacity, which can potentially necessitate “overflowing” or “postponing” some emergent requests that should be performed as soon as possible. Therefore, the problem faced by the medical specialty facility at the decision-making point of each day is how many of the backlogged elective patients can be admitted. We formulate this problem as a Markov decision process (MDP) and study the structural properties of the model to characterize the nature of the optimal policy. We propose easy-to-implement policies (the fixed quota policy and the best fixed quota policy), which perform well under fitted distributions. By reporting numerical analyses using real data from a Chinese public hospital, we finally compare the improvements that our proposed solutions could bring to the hospital with the existing practices under several different cost structures.     

Coping with stress in emergency department physicians through improved patient-flow management

This paper provides a method for the real-time monitoring of job stress in emergency department (ED) physicians. It is implemented in a Decision Support System (DSS) designed for patient-to-physician assignment after triage. Our concept of job stress includes not only the workload but also time pressure and uncertainty. A job stress function is estimated based on the consensus views of ED physicians obtained through a novel methodology involving stress factor analysis, questionnaire design, and the statistical analysis of expert opinions. The resulting stress score enables the assessment of job stress using workload data from the ED physicians’ whiteboard. These data can be used for the real-time measurement and monitoring of ED physician job stress in a stochastic and dynamic environment, which is the main novelty of this method as compared to previous workload and stress measurement proposals. A further advantage of this methodology is that it is general enough to be adapted to physician job stress monitoring in any ED. The use of the DSS for ED patient-flow management reduces job stress and spreads it more evenly among the whole team of physicians, while also improving other important ED performance measures such as arrival-to-provider time and the percentage of compliance with patient waiting time targets. A case study illustrates the application of the methodology for the construction of a stress-score, the monitoring of physician stress levels, and ED patient-flow management.     

新时代财政应急保障机制研究

2020年新冠肺炎疫情的爆发,凸显了我国新时代财政应急保障机制的困境.在不断推进国家治理体系和治理能力现代化的进程中,我国数字经济与共享经济的突飞猛进为改良传统财政应急机制提供了契机.本文通过借鉴国外先进经验,结合中国实际情况,提出了完善财政应急保障机制的几点建议.