出生缺陷地理风险因子的空间分析

出生缺陷是影响人口出生质量最重要的因素。大量研究表明,出生缺陷仅仅靠单纯的生物医学研究还不够,多学科的交叉研究是有效探讨出生缺陷病因和预防的唯一出路。利用北京大学人口环境健康组调查数据,分类了能够在地理空间上归属的出生缺陷风险因素,将这些因素存在的空间相关性进行了传统统计分析方法不适宜的风险因子与出生缺陷统计因果之间的研究。探讨了空间分析技术在出生缺陷的地理风险因子研究的一般步骤与关键技术,为出生缺陷研究提供了新的思路。     

Art as an investment: Short and long-term comovements in major painting markets

This paper examines the short and long-term price linkages among major art and equity markets over the period 1976–2001. The art markets examined are Contemporary Masters, French Impressionists, Modern European, 19^th Century European, Old Masters, Surrealists, 20^th Century English and Modern US paintings. A global equity index (with dividends and capitalisation changes) is also included. Multivariate cointegration procedures, Granger non-causality tests, level VAR and generalised variance decomposition analyses based on error-correction and vector autoregressive models are conducted to analyse short and long-run relationships among these markets. The results indicate that there is a stationary long-run relationship and significant short and long run causal linkages between the various painting markets and between the equity market and painting markets. However, in terms of the percentage of variance explained most painting markets are relatively isolated, and other painting markets are generally more important than the equity market in explaining the variance that is not caused by innovations in the market itself. This suggests that opportunities for portfolio diversification in art works alone and in conjunction with equity markets exist, though in common with the literature in this area the study finds that the returns on paintings are much lower and the risks much higher than in conventional financial markets.The authors would like to thank delegates to the 14th Australasian Finance and Banking Conference, University of New South Wales, seminar participants at the Queensland University of Technology and Massey University, Masaki Katsuura, and two anonymous referees for helpful comments on earlier versions of this paper. The financial assistance of a Queensland University of Technology, Faculty of Business Research Initiative Grant is also gratefully acknowledged.     

欠发达地区民间借贷的对策研究

近几年民间借贷案件数量不断上升,金融风险问题增多。从民间借贷风险防范的视角,以欠发达地区安徽省某地级市为例,介绍了欠发达地区民间借贷的现状,剖析了民间借贷存在的风险问题,如投资渠道不够畅通、民间借贷市场发展不规范、群众诚信意识不强、群众风险意识薄弱,提出风险防范建议,如加强政府对正规金融的支持、加强金融监管、加强诚信机制建设、增强民众金融素养。     

技术创新项目风险分析与综合评价

文章分析了企业技术创新项目的风险因素,在此基础上设置了风险评价指标体系,建立了模糊评判模型,对企业技术创新风险进行了科学评价,并能定量地衡量企业关于某个项目的技术创新风险大小,为企业技术创新决策和采取风险控制措施提供了依据。     

企业电子商务战略的风险与管理对策

实施电子商务战略是企业获取竞争优势的手段之一。但其面临风险。这风险不仅指安全风险，更危险且难以辨认的风险是竞争风险、变革风险、消费者风险和经营伙伴风险。本文试图就这四种风险进行分析并提出相应的管理对策，以期为实施电子商务战略的企业提供参考。     

Technology assessment: Impact of high-tech engineering research on energy consumption

A technology assessment (TA) program was launched in Switzerland in 1991. One project in the series of pilot projects was meant to assess the impact of so-called LESIT technologies on energy consumption. (LESIT was a priority research program and a German acronym for power electronics, systems and information technology.) In this paper the institutional environment, applied methods and main results of the TA study are summarised. One of the questions that arose was whether it is reasonable to expect a high-tech engineering research program to serve any societal goals other than the more immediate technical and economic goals the research partners in university and industry are accustomed to follow. It was found that without special efforts this expectation was not realistic. Politically desirable goals are best served when enough emphasis, time, and money are given to the process of bringing together research partners from academia and industry who all have a (self-serving) interest in furthering the politically desirable goal and then support their collaboration.     

利率风险管理的重要免疫工具:持续期模型

利率市场化进程的加快凸现利率风险管理的重要性和迫切性.作为一种利率风险管理的重要免疫工具,持续期配比策略在近些年来有了较大发展.本文在深入探讨Macaulay持续期的三种重要含义的基础上,详细地分析和比较了近期提出的几种主要持续期即:方向持续期、 部分持续期和近似持续期,最后简单讨论了将这些持续期模型及其免疫策略用于中国市场应注意的问题.     

风险投资的风险分担机制分析

风险投资的高风险性决定了建立投资风险规避机制的重要性。风险投资面临着技术风险、市场风险、资金风险、管理风 险和环境风险等风险类型,在此基础上需要制订规避投资风险的一系列策略。     

试论我国地方政府债务及其风险控制

地方政府债务是指地方政府承担的,所有需要其在将来运用资产或其它经济资源偿还的义务。它具有以下几个特点:首先,地方政府债务是一种综合性的债务。它可能由多种因素诱发产生,或由其它形式的债务(例如金融债务)转化而来。其次,地方政府债务具有较大的隐蔽性。某些形式的地方政府债务并不直接表现在政府资产负债表上,可能直到需要偿还时才会最终暴露出来。第三,作为最终需要地方财政偿还的债务,地方政府债务一般由地方财政实施控制。     

我国商业银行市场风险管理的特殊性:基于金融生态环境的分析

随着我国经济金融改革和发展,尤其是利率市场化和人民币汇率体制改革的深入,中国银行业面临的市场风险显著增大,根据我国具体情况加强银行市场风险管理是十分紧迫的现实任务。本文以金融生态环境为视角,着重分析我国商业银行的内外部环境状况及其影响,揭示我国银行业市场风险管理的特殊性,并据此提出了以金融生态环境改善为基础,提高银行市场风险管理水平的建议。