Incorporating Collateral Value Uncertainty in Loss Given Default Estimates and Loan-to-value Ratios

We present a model of risky debt in which collateral value is correlated with the possibility of default. The model is then used to study the expected loss given default, primarily as a function of collateral. The results obtained could prove useful for estimating losses given default in many popular models of credit risk which assume them constant. We also examine the problem of determining sufficient collateral to secure a loan to a desired extent. In addition to bank practitioners, regulators might find our analysis useful in reviewing banks’ lending standards relative to current collateral values. In particular, the current proposals for The New (Basel) Capital Accord involve options for the use of banks’ own loss given default estimates which might benefit from the analysis in this paper.     

Default- and call-adjusted duration for corporate bonds

Call and default can potentially alter the timing and amounts of promised cashflows for callable, corporate bonds. While prior research has indicated the theoretical importance of adjusting Macaulay duration for the impacts of default and call, the question of their relative impact remains a matter of debate [The High Yield Debt Market, Dow Jones Irwin, New York, 1990, p. 18; J. Finan. 53 (1998) 2225]. We develop a theoretical analysis incorporating both default and call effects on duration and test its implications employing a previously unexplored data base of Canadian, investment grade, corporate bond indices containing an unusual provision making it possible to identify callable and noncallable indices.     

Cross-hedging foreign currency risk: Empirical evidence from an error correction model

In this article, the traditional price change hedge ratio estimation method is extended by applying the theory of cointegration in the case of cross-hedging of spot exchange risk of the Belgian franc (BF), the Italian lira (IL), and the Dutch guilder (NG) with U.S. Dollar Index futures contracts. Previous studies ignore the last period's equilibrium error and short-run deviations. The findings of this study indicate that the hedge ratio estimated by the error correction method is superior to that obtained from the traditional method, as evidenced by the likelihood ratio test and out-of-sample forecasts. Hedgers will be able to control the risk of their portfolios more effectively at a lower cost.     

Return and risk in initial public offerings of both shares and warrants

In the past few years there has been an increasing number of new issues of shares of common stock together with warrants intended to raise interest in initial public offerings of relatively young, growing firms. In this study we examine the pricing efficiency of stocks and warrants offered simultaneously to the public as a single unit. We present a model for evaluating the warrants in such offerings and test it empirically against data from the Tel-Aviv Stock Exchange, where such offerings have become standard. We find that the issued units are usually undervalued, allowing for significant abnormal positive returns. But, while the warrants are usually underpriced, the stocks are overpriced. Largely consistent with the evidence from other financial markets around the world, we also find abnormal negative rates of return in the long run.     

Dynamic analysis of stock return volatility in an integrated international capital market

This paper examines the dynamic behavior of the stock return volatility for Canada, Japan, Germany, and the United Kingdom. The evidence indicates that international stock return volatility is mainly influenced by the U.S. stock return volatility and the exchange rate volatility, supporting the international capital market integration hypothesis. There seems to be some correlation between stock return volatility and macroeconomic volatility, but the effect is relatively weaker. In addition to the economic fundamentals, the noise component is found to be time varying, confirming the AR(MA)CH specifications in the stock return models.     

资本约束、风险管理与商业银行成长

基于资本必须覆盖风险命题的要求,银行的风险管理能力决定了银行的资本规模和资本的配置,银行资本管理实质上等价于风险管理,资本约束实质上就是风险约束。资本软约束是制约中国商业银行成长的主要障碍之一,但仅仅致力于资本充足率问题的解决并不能保证我国商业银行的可持续成长,风险约束是制约我国商业银行成长的瓶颈。只有从制度、技术和经营战略等方面入手,不断提高风险管理能力,建立以资本约束为核心的业务增长模式和资源配置方式,尽快实现成长模式由资金约束到资本约束的转变,中国商业银行才能在效益、质量和规模协调发展的基础上实现持续成长。     

金融服务外包的风险控制及其监管研究

金融服务外包是金融领域的新兴业务,从国际范围看,金融服务外包行业正处于行业生命周期的高速成长期,尤其是近年来发展迅猛;目前我国金融业务外包已经开始起步并呈现不断发展的趋势。金融服务外包有利于强化金融机构的核心竞争力、规避经营风险和降低经营成本;但也会带来外包失败、成本增加、收益分配的不确定性、战略泄漏等风险。金融机构自身要加强内部控制防范风险,金融监管部门也应加强监管,要合理限定金融服务外包的范围、规范监管机构的权限与监管程序、规范金融机构选择外包商的基本程序和机制、要求金融机构和外包商建立应急机制,并适度从严监管跨国金融服务外包。     

我国涉外企业外汇交易风险研究

随着世界经济逐步向全球一体化的方向发展以及我国对WTO相关条款的逐步履行,我国与其他国家的经济往来也变得更加频繁。更为重要的是,我国外汇管理体制改革的进一步深化和外汇市场的发展和完善,使得人民币汇率开始走向市场,汇率变动的频率和范围将大大增强。因此,在这一背景下,本文以科学性和前瞻性为指导原则,通过阐述我国涉外企业面临的外汇交易风险现状和问题,揭示这类企业加强外汇交易风险管理的必要性,在此基础上,来探讨外汇交易风险对我国涉外企业净利润的影响,最终结合我国外汇管理体制改革的实践,提出有效防范和规避外汇交易风险的建议和对策。     

金融风险管理的演进:动因、影响及启示

近半个世纪以来,无论是金融风险管理的理念和组织架构,还是金融风险管理的具体内容和方法,都发生了巨大的变化。本文从金融机构对自身利益的追逐、外部环境的复杂多变、金融理论与技术的进步以及人们对重大损失性事件的反思等方面,深刻地揭示了推动金融风险管理演进的主要因素,沿着这一思路,本文进一步分析了这一演进给金融领域带来的深远影响及其对我国金融业发展的启示意义。