Income risk and farm consumption behavior

Using panel data from Illinois grain farmers, a direct test of the relationship between income risk and farm consumption behavior is conducted. The estimation results indicate that income risk significantly affects farm consumption and the results are robust using alternative risk measures. This finding casts doubt on the relevance of the conventional life-cycle permanent income hypothesis, which implies that risk has no effect on consumption.     

The effects of real exchange rate depreciation on stochastic producer prices in low-income agriculture

This paper considers the effects of real exchange rate depreciation on stochastic agricultural producer prices in low-income agriculture. Conventional wisdom, that real depreciation achieved through nominal currency devaluation stimulates tradables production, does not universally hold in the presence of stochastic prices. In fact, real depreciation is only stimulative in two cases–importables that remain importable and nontradables that become exportable. GARCH estimation of time-series price data on several commodities from Madagascar support the hypotheses generated by the analytical model.     

Are gold,USD, and Bitcoin hedge or safe haven against stock? The implication for risk management

This study investigates whether gold, USD, and Bitcoin are hedge and safe haven assets against stock and if they are useful in diversifying downside risk for international stock markets. We propose a combined GO-GARCH-EVT-copula approach to examine the hedge and safe haven properties of gold, USD, and Bitcoin. We then examine the attractiveness of these assets in reducing stock portfolio risk by using downside risk measures estimated by the proposed approach and other competing models. We also evaluate the relative performance of the proposed model in reducing downside risk with the competing models. The findings of the study indicate that the USD is the most valuable hedge and safe haven asset closely followed by gold, while Bitcoin is the least valuable. It is also observed that the proposed combined approach performs best in reducing the portfolio downside risk. The findings of this study are of significance for portfolio managers and individual investors who wish to protect the portfolio value during market turmoil.     

物流金融风险分析及防范对策

作为一种新型业务,物流金融解决了制造企业的融资瓶颈问题,为银行业的金融创新提供了条件,但同时物流金融业务也面临着许多风险。从物流金融的概念出发,讨论了物流金融的作用,分析了物流金融在实践中存在的各种风险,最后提出物流金融业务风险的防范对策。     

Forest management under fire risk when forest carbon sequestration has value

We develop a multiple forest use model to determine the optimal harvest date for a forest stand producing both timber and carbon benefits under a risk of fire. An empirical application is provided for a forest owner producing maritime pine in Southwest of France. Our results indicate that a higher risk of fire will decrease the optimal rotation period. On the contrary, higher carbon prices increase the optimal harvesting age. To investigate the contradictory effects of fire risk and carbon price on forest rotation, we identify the set of carbon prices and fire risks that lead to a given rotation age. We also show that forest owner's willingness to pay for a risk reduction can be substantial (37.33 euros by ha and by year to reduce the annual fire risk from 1.26% to 0.07%).     

从风险管理的角度控制物流风险

本文根据现代风险管理原理引入“物流风险成本最小化”模型对物流风险进行量化．并在此基础上对模型进行简化，从物流损失控制的角度分析了物流风险管理的决策方法。     

Valuing and Pricing Retail Leases with Renewal and Overage Options

We consider retail leases with landlord overages options, with tenant renewal options, with both and with neither. We illustrate how the ratio of initial expected sales to the sales threshold can be manipulated to equate the value of the landlord overage options to that of the tenant renewal option at the same initial rent. Not only are the values equal, but the cumulative distributions of potential IRRs on the two leases are nearly identical, suggesting that these leases are equally attractive to risk-averse investors and thus that the same risky discount rate can be used in valuing the leases. In contrast, the appropriate risky discount rate for the overage lease is calculated to be 75–160 basis points greater than that for the renewal lease.     

水泥企业并购的财务风险识别与控制

当前,并购重组已成为国内知名水泥企业做大做强的战略选择,但企业并购重组过程中不可避免地存在企业并购的风险,由于信息的不对称性、外部环境的不确定性、经营管理活动的复杂性和企业自身能力的有限性而导致企业并购后达不到预期的经济效益,甚至给并购之后企业的经营活动留下隐患。并购风险贯穿于整个并购活动,作为企业并购成功关键因素的财务风险应该引起我们足够的重视,能否识别、规避和控制并购中的财务风险,决定着并购的成败。