Marx on division of labour,mechanization and technical progress

The paper reconstructs Marx's analysis of the development of the forces of production in terms of the interaction among division of labour in particular processes of production, social division of labour and technical progress. It also brings out Marx's conception of technical progress and establishes his view of the essential interdependence among the development of the forces of production, the process of capital accumulation and the expansion of markets; it further brings out the role of competition as a fundamental driving force in the interrelated processes of accumulation and of development of the social productivity of labour.     

Financial repression and external openness in an endogenous growth model

An endogenous growth model has been developed that extends Sidrauski (1967), Roubini and Sala-i-Martin (1992,1995) and Lucas (1988) by combining financial development, human capital investment, and external openness. Financial development and trade liberalization are shown to increase the economic growth rate by increasing the marginal benefits of human capital investment. Expansionary governments are, however, provided with an incentive to increase the money supply growth rate, to repress the financial sector, to close its economy, and to impose a high proportional income tax rate.     

Information and Communication Technology (ICT) and Singapore’s economic growth

Singapore’s remarkable success in economic development has been strongly associated with the country’s vigorous efforts to embrace the Information and Communication Technology (ICT) revolution to promote economic growth. This study provides a comprehensive investigation of the contributions of ICT to Singapore’s economic growth during the 1990–2008 period. It documents three key findings. First, there is a strong positive association between the intensity of ICT use and value-added and labor productivity growth at the sector level. Second, ICT investment contributed approximately 1 percentage point to Singapore’s GDP during 1990–2008, and its role in driving economic growth has become increasingly important over time. Third, the contribution of the ICT manufacturing sector to Singapore’s growth was notable, but it was on the decline and faced difficult restructuring challenges. This paper also provides valuable policy lessons and strategic insights for governments in both developed and developing countries that aspire to embrace ICT to promote economic growth.     

关于2012年下半年经济形势的两个判断

本文首先从生产和需求两个角度对今年下半年经济增长形势进行判断,认为下半年我国经济增速将初步扭转持续回落的走势,三季度增速可能会比二季度略有回升,四季度增速可能会比三季度略有回升,但回升幅度均有限。接下来,从通货膨胀压力和抑制通货膨胀因素两个角度对下半年通货膨胀形势进行判断,认为下半年我国通货膨胀率可能会延续回落的走势,但回落幅度会有所减小。     

我国经济发展指标体系的构建与应用研究——基于经济发展的数量与质量角度

经济增长与经济发展是经济学中的两个重要概念,本文把单纯的经济增长划归为经济发展的数量方面,将经济发展分为数量与质量两个方面,并基于这个划分角度构建了经济发展指标体系,提供了构建经济指标体系的一个新视角。同时,本文利用该经济发展指标体系对我国1978～2009年的宏观经济数据进行实证研究,刻画了我国经济发展全貌的变动趋势,为经济发展方面的研究提供了一个全局地图。     

Growth and value hybrid valuation model based on mean reversion

This article proposes a novel valuation model, growth and value hybrid model, to estimate the stock price. This proposed model combines the essence of the asset-based approach, the income-based approach, and the principle of mean reversion to develop the theoretical closed-form formula consisting of three coefficients: value coefficient, value support coefficient and growth coefficient. Regression analysis is employed to fit market data to determine these coefficients. Moreover, this study proposes the double sorting method to build the quantile regression models of the formula to estimate the stock price at a specific quantile. The results show that the predictive capability of the hybrid valuation model is superior to the model without using value support coefficient, which supports the assumption that the PBR is not associated with the ROE when the ROE is less than a threshold. In different time periods of the stock market, no significant difference exists on the value support coefficient. However, the variations of the value coefficient and the growth coefficient are significant.     

Impact of China's currency valuation and labour cost on the US in a trade and exchange rate model

Ricardian dynamic general equilibrium analyses show that under free trade arrangements a low income country with lower wage cost and large endowment of labour has comparative advantage in trade. Efficiency gains from this enhance economic growth and welfare of households simultaneously in both low income and advanced economies. Theoretical predictions are empirically validated here with structural VAR analysis based on quarterly data over the time period 1995:1 to 2009:1 on China's relative wage cost, interest rate differential, real effective exchange rate (REER), relative GDP and the US current account balance. It is shown how the relative prices of labour, capital and the currency affect the economic activity in China and current account balance in the US. With free capital inflows and outflows and restrictions on labour mobility, comparative advantage of China and the trade deficit of the US will both be minimised if China allows real appreciation of the Yuan and complete adjustment in prices. Higher production cost and prices in China could reduce welfare of Chinese households and the trade imbalance of the US, while higher relative GDP of China lowers the current account balance for the US.     

Growth,deficits and uncertainty: Theoretical aspects and empirical evidence from a panel of 27 countries

We examine the relationship between fiscal deficits and per-capita income growth in a panel of 27 European countries, allowing for perceived risks, in terms of fiscal sustainability, associated with additional government spending. Such risks are proxied by the conditional variability of manufacturing production and stock market returns and by the unconditional variability of two survey-based economic-sentiment indicators. To help clarifying how fiscal variables impact on growth and to provide a point of reference for the interpretation of the empirical results a structural growth model is first identified. We find evidence of an asymmetric relationship, in that fiscal deficits give rise to adverse growth effects if they coincide with high uncertainty regarding the prospects of the economy and no significant negative growth effects in the low-uncertainty case.     

我国政府支出对经济增长拉动作用研究

运用协整理论等现代计量分析方法,对我国改革开放以来政府支出与经济增长间的关系进行实证研究.结果表明,我国的政府消费支出、投资支出、国债融资与经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系;政府消费支出具有很强的生产性,与投资支出相比更能促进经济增长的实证性结论.     

Sector- and economy-wide effects of terminating the use of anti-microbial growth promoters in Denmark

In Denmark the poultry industry and the National Committee for Pig Production, together with the feedstuff industry, decided to voluntarily abolish the use of all Anti-microbial Growth Promoters (AGP). The poultry industry abolished the use of AGP from 15 February 1998 and the pig industry followed on 1 March 1998 (for pigs over 35 kg) and 1 January 2000 (for pigs under 35 kg). To evaluate the effects of the removal of AGP, data from both the poultry and pig industries were collected prior to and after the removal of AGP from animal feed. Utilizing these production data, this paper calculates economy-wide effects of the removal of AGP using the Agricultural Applied General Equilibrium (AAGE) model of the Danish economy. The results show that the long-term effects are a moderate decline in the production and export of pig meat, and a positive indirect effect on other industries including poultry due to lower rental rates for primary factor inputs. The overall implication is a small decline in real GDP of 0.03%, reducing public and private consumption by 68 DKK per capita per year in Denmark.