Performance and learning in an ambiguous environment: A study of cryptocurrency traders

We investigate the performance and learning ability of traders in an environment governed by ambiguity, such as the cryptocurrency market. Using a profit decomposition methodology, we find significant cross-sectional and temporal heterogeneity in performance. Traders do not learn to progressively increase the magnitude of returns; however, they are able to improve on their ability to realise profits as a mechanism of adaptation to survive through ambiguity. This adaptation increases as traders progress through their career. Moreover, we find evidence in support of the gambler’s fallacy. We argue that learning in ambiguous environments has limitations, allowing traders primarily to survive.     

The contractionary effects of tax shocks on productivity: An empirical and theoretical analysis

I analyze the effects of tax policy changes on US Total Factor Productivity. VAR estimates show that permanent and exogenous tax increases have strong, permanent, and negative effects on TFP which represent about 80% of change in output following the tax increase. I then build a DSGE model which has learning-by-doing and endogenous TFP evolution. The benchmark model is able to replicate the empirical impulse responses. However, when I calibrate the model as in the literature, the effect of taxes on TFP is substantially less elastic than in the data. I argue that this divergence may arise because tax changes labeled as exogenous can give spurious results or because of a mis-specified model.     

创业导向对创新绩效的影响:顾客授权与开放式创新视角

开放经济下企业往往利用开放式创新范式进行技术创新。从开放式理论视角探讨创业导向对创新绩效的作用机制,重点探讨顾客授权的调节作用。以开放式创新为中介变量,以顾客授权为调节变量,构建一个被调节的中介作用模型。采用259家制造业企业的调查问卷数据检验研究假设,结果表明:开放式创新部分中介了创业导向与创新绩效间关系,顾客授权正向调节创业导向与开放式创新间关系以及开放式创新与创新绩效间关系,顾客授权与创新绩效呈正相关关系。最后,提出了管理建议和未来研究方向。     

Creating competitive advantage: Linking perspectives of organization learning,innovation behavior and intellectual capital

Drawing on learning theories and the intellectual capital (IC) theory, organizational learning research has discussed the benefits of searching for market opportunities and maintaining a competitive advantage in dynamic environments. To explain organizational performance and survival, the previous literature has focused mainly on what organizations do, but it has failed to address how and what they should do. This study argues that if hotel management is open-minded about exploratory and exploitative learning, it can open the door to capturing opportunity and competitive advantage through increased innovation behavior and human capital accumulation. Further, IC theory has also confirmed that social capital and relational capital will strengthen the relationship between innovation behavior and human capital. This study analyzes data from 595 hotel managers and finds strong support for the proposed hypotheses.     

The business model in entrepreneurial marketing: A communication perspective on business angels' opportunity interpretation

Entrepreneurial marketing has emerged as a recent perspective within the marketing field, taking the challenges and characteristics of small firms and founding teams into account. Specifically, in the early stages of entrepreneurial marketing, besides potential customers a variety of other stakeholders tend to be in the center of attention. Among these stakeholders, business angels as early-stage investors represent a vital target group. In this paper, we aim to shed light on entrepreneurial marketing in the early phases of new venture creation, in which entrepreneurial firms have an inherent need to market the value of a business opportunity toward potential investors. In particular, we contribute to the literature by introducing the business model as a narrative device for the marketing of early-stage new ventures toward potential business angels. In this regard, the business model is suggested as playing a critical role through making the inherent economic value of a technology explicit. Building on narrative theory, we investigate the role that the business model plays in the decision-making process of 17 business angels. Based on our findings, we propose a model that links the business model to a business angel's interpretation of an investment opportunity and discuss implications for theory and practice.     

Nonparametric learning rules from bandit experiments: The eyes have it!

How do people learn? We assess, in a model-free manner, subjectsʼ belief dynamics in a two-armed bandit learning experiment. A novel feature of our approach is to supplement the choice and reward data with subjectsʼ eye movements during the experiment to pin down estimates of subjectsʼ beliefs. Estimates show that subjects are more reluctant to “update down” following unsuccessful choices, than “update up” following successful choices. The profits from following the estimated learning and decision rules are smaller (by about 25% of average earnings by subjects in this experiment) than what would be obtained from a fully-rational Bayesian learning model, but comparable to the profits from alternative non-Bayesian learning models, including reinforcement learning and a simple “win-stay” choice heuristic.     

Passive learning: a critique by example

In models of learning by experimentation that exhibit signal dependence, a benchmark using a passive learner has been proposed. The use of this benchmark is flawed – first, passive learning does not disentangle the effects of knowing that beliefs, as well as other state variables, might change, and we address this issue directly by introducing a naïve learner. Secondly, and more tellingly, passive learning does not do what it is supposed to do, namely help measure the gains from active experimentation; the naïve learner enables us to illustrate this point in the context of a particular example.     

二语词汇习得过程研究

词汇是二语学习的一项重要内容。学习者在二语词汇学习过程中必然会受到母语学习策略、母语认知和母语思维的影响。在词汇学习过程中,二语学习者要逐步减少对母语的依赖,逐渐适应二语词与概念的直接对应复习并运用所学词汇,对词汇信息进行深入全面的加工,培养二语词汇能力。     

外部研发合作广度与新产品开发绩效：一个有调节的中介模型

基于企业外部合作伙伴分布广泛的特点,从外部研发合作广度的两个维度（市场广度和研究广度）出发,选取2010—2018年160家中国制造业上市企业数据,运用多元回归分析法探讨外部研发合作广度对企业新产品开发绩效的影响。结果表明,外部研发合作的市场广度和研究广度正向影响新产品开发绩效,其中,研究广度的作用更为显著;网络学习在外部研发合作广度对新产品开发绩效的影响机制中存在部分中介作用;知识库同质性正向调节外部研发合作广度与网络学习的关系。结论丰富了新产品开发绩效前因变量研究,对企业制定外部研发合作战略,提升新产品开发绩效具有重要管理启示。     

营商环境、企业家精神与技术创新关系研究

优化营商环境、激发市场主体活力是我国新时期推动经济高质量发展的重大举措。选取2009-2018年30个省市级面板数据,构建中介效应模型,实证分析营商环境质量对企业家精神的激励效应及技术创新的促进作用。研究发现：①营商环境优化对中国技术创新具有显著正效应,但其影响更多表现为资金供给而非制度供给;②企业家精神是营商环境与技术创新的中介变量,营商环境要素、企业家创新精神和创业精神激励结构对技术创新的影响存在异质性;③营商环境显性激励作用明显,但内生激励不足。研究结论可为持续优化营商环境、激发企业家精神、促进技术创新提供政策启示。