私法自治原则下职务发明奖酬制度研究

职务发明法律制度旨在协调职务发明人与单位间的利益关系，鼓励相关主体创新，进而促进科技成果转化、加快创新型国家建设。然而《职务发明条例（草案）》中的职务发明奖酬制度约定优先原则极不稳定及政府对市场过度干预的现实，与职务发明制度立法目的背道而驰。因此，要实现对立法本质的回归，应坚持以私法自治为基础，建立以企业为主体、市场为导向的科技创新激励机制，充分发挥科技成果转化相关立法的激励作用。     

广西铁路多式联运发展对策研究

广西作为我国唯一与东盟国家陆海相邻的省区,发展铁路多式联运具有广阔前景和独特优势。基于联运发展环境和班列开行组织2个方面,深入阐述广西铁路多式联运发展现状,分析得出目前存在的联运基础设施亟待完善、各运输方式间协同水平较低、各运输方式分工不够合理、市场综合竞争力有待提高4个方面问题。据此,提出广西铁路多式联运发展对策,即:完善联运设备设施、加强各种交通方式融合、推进运输结构调整、优化联运产品供给、加强技术装备应用,以进一步完善广西铁路多式联运体系,提升社会物流服务整体水平。     

The inventory performance of forecasting methods: Evidence from the M3 competition data

Forecasting competitions have been a major driver not only of improvements in forecasting methods’ performances, but also of the development of new forecasting approaches. However, despite the tremendous value and impact of these competitions, they do suffer from the limitation that performances are measured only in terms of the forecast accuracy and bias, ignoring utility metrics. Using the monthly industry series of the M3 competition, we empirically explore the inventory performances of various widely used forecasting techniques, including exponential smoothing, ARIMA models, the Theta method, and approaches based on multiple temporal aggregation. We employ a rolling simulation approach and analyse the results for the order-up-to policy under various lead times. We find that the methods that are based on combinations result in superior inventory performances, while the Naïve, Holt, and Holt-Winters methods perform poorly.     

基于关键性风险因素的中国金融状况指标体系构建研究

文章从系统性风险冲击来源的角度拓展并构建了包含关键性风险因素的FCI，并以FCI作为同步指标构建了金融景气指标体系，包括金融一致指数、金融先行指数以及金融滞后指数，在此基础上对我国金融状况进行了预测分析。结果显示：关键性风险因素中，房价波动风险与银行业不良贷款风险惯性特征明显，但也受其他因素的冲击影响，需对其进行风险监控，去产能风险则受其他因素的影响显著，需辅以经济政策与调控措施来保证产能过剩行业的稳定；2018年中国经济增长面临较大不确定性，尽管中国金融状况长期向好的趋势性特征没有改变，但当前以及未来一段时间内中国均以较高的转移概率处于风险积聚区制，且存在着影响中国金融状况稳定的其他因素，应更多关注系统性风险的防控。     

驱动与阻碍:网络位置影响知识转移的系统动力学研究

基于网络位置的“双刃剑”特性，从驱动机制和阻碍机制着手构建网络位置影响知识转移的系统动力学模型，并进行仿真和灵敏度分析。结果显示：知识转移受到网络位置驱动与阻碍的双重影响;当企业占据较高的网络中心度与较少的网络结构洞时，协同效应最显著，知识转移量最大。该研究揭示了网络位置对知识转移的影响机制，也可为企业选择合适的网络占位提供借鉴与依据。     

科研不端行为特征与治理对策——国家自然科学基金披露科研不端行为的实证分析

世界著名学术出版商斯普林格（Springer）将刊载于旗下《肿瘤生物学》期刊（Tumor Biology）涉嫌伪造同行评议的中国学者的107篇论文撤稿，引发了社会各界对中国科研不端行为的关注与反思。以2013-2016年国家自然科学基金委员会披露的两批《科研不端行为典型案例及处理决定》中77件科研不端行为的88名涉事人员为样本，发现科研不端行为源于激励诱惑与制度要求、科学家角色冲突与角色序列冲突以及奖励制度与评价制度不对称的共谋。基于此，提出应建立健全科研数据公开机制，加快学术诚信体系建设，深化绩效考核制度改革，平衡奖励制度与处罚制度等政策建议，以维护学术诚信、改善科研生态、预防学术不端。     

我国城市最低生活保障制度的问题及对策探讨——兼论美国社会救助制度的借鉴

我国城市低保制度在保障贫困人口的基本生活、维护社会稳定方面起到了至关重要的作用。但随着经济、社会结构等外部环境的变化,该制度的滞后性日益暴露出来:方式单一、缺乏正式的制度安排、重救济轻发展等。针对这些问题,本文做了一些论述并提出了相应的对策建议,包括扩展救助方式、建立合理的筹资机制、完善制度化的管理等,期待这一重要的社会救助政策日臻完善。     

构建“简政强镇”改革的实现机制:基于改革困境的考量

"简政强镇"改革,使乡镇经济社会管理职能由"权小责大"向"权责一致"转变,已经取得了实质性的进展。但这一改革仍面临着诸多的困境。因此,必须从形成改革共识、理顺行政体制、转变职能定位、保障执法权威以及加强权力监管等方面构建"简政强镇"改革的实现机制,才能从体制和法制上保障改革的顺利进行。     

Demand forecasting based on natural computing approaches applied to the foodstuff retail segment

The purpose of this paper is to compare the accuracy of demand forecasting between two classical linear forecasting models (Autoregressive and Integrated Moving Average -ARIMA and Holt-Winter) and two nonlinear forecasting models based on natural computing approaches (Wavelets Neural Networks - WNN and Takagi-Sugeno Fuzzy System - TS), all applied to the aggregated retail sales of three groups of perishable food products from 2005 to 2013. Moreover, this paper evaluates the impact of demand forecasting accuracy on the demand satisfaction rate and on the overall economic performance of retail business operations. The most accurate model, WNN, had a demand satisfaction rate of 98.27% for Group A, 98.83% for Group B and 98.80% for Group C. WNN estimated a loss of revenue of R$1329.14 million/year with a minimum loss of 166 tons/year, which means that the results of WNN are 37.67% more efficient than the TS, 57.49% higher than the ARIMA and 76.79% higher than HW. This paper presents three main contributions: (i) it examines a question not evaluated in the literature on demand forecasting based on natural computing approaches in the foodstuff retail segment that generates better practical results, (ii) it proposes that a single forecasting model could be applied to different product groups and serves the organization as a whole with a good relationship between the cost and the benefit of the process and (iii) like previous studies, it proves that demand forecasting plays an important role and can generate a competitive advantage for the organization to be incorporated into its strategy.     

国际货币体系演进中的货币霸权转移

从国际货币体系与货币霸权的基本概念入手,分析了金本位制时期的英国货币霸权,金汇兑本位时期英国货币霸权的衰落,布雷顿森林体系时期美国货币霸权的构建以及现行国际货币体系下的美国货币新霸权,说明国际货币体系的演进过程实质上也是货币霸权确立和转移的过程。