Life Cycle Price Trends and Product Replacement: Implications for the Measurement of Inflation

The paper explores the extent to which products follow systematic pricing patterns over their life cycle and the impact this has on the measurement of inflation. Using a large U.S. scanner data set on supermarket products and applying flexible regression methods, we find that on average prices decline as items age. This life cycle price change is often attributed to quality difference in the construction of CPI as items are replaced due to disappearance or during sample rotations. This introduces a systematic bias in the measurement of inflation. For our data we find that the life cycle bias leads to the underestimation of inflation by around 0.30 percentage points each year for the products examined.     

Ellison-Glaeser指数的修正方法及其应用——对中国制造业行业集聚的再测度

基于Ellison-Glaeser指数和Maurel-Sédillot指数,构建了用于测度中国制造业行业集聚程度的γa指数,将之与EG指数比较。利用γa指数测度两位数制造业行业和三位数制造业行业的集聚程度,并在省级层面阐明了其应用宽度。结果显示:在数据稳定性上,γa指数优于EG指数;除烟草制品业及石油加工、炼焦和核燃料加工业以外,1998—2013年中国其他制造业行业的集聚程度均呈上升趋势;劳动密集型制造业行业的集聚程度高于资本密集型制造业行业和技术密集型制造业行业;重污染制造业行业的集聚程度先升后降,表明其对环境规制强度的变化更为敏感。     

A systematic approach to assess the effectiveness of airport noise mitigation strategies

Regional airports are often located very close to the urban area they serve and the increasing traffic rate that many of them have experienced in the last years has produced several impacts on the communities living close to the airport area, mainly aviation noise. If not properly managed, noise impacts produced by airport operations can cut down significantly the development of airport air traffic with direct effects on the economic and territorial systems. Aeronautical noise has greatly reduced in the last decade, due to aircraft design technological improvements and more severe regulations. However, the noise reduction during a single event does not make the issue of the airport location – and then the whole noise impact – less significant. This paper proposes an assessment process to evaluate the effects of actions adopted to reduce airport noise impacts on populated areas. Both airport-related factors – such as number of take-off; day-evening-night distributions of movements; aircraft type; flying paths – and land-use characteristics have been considered and combined in a density index that synthesizes the impacts of airport noise on the territory. The assessment process has been tested on a real case, the airport of Bologna in Northern Italy. The predicted results, compared with available real data for the test case, are significant and encourage the use of the proposed assessment process as decision support system for the airport management.     

国外区位导向性政策研究最新进展及对雄安新区建设的启示

〖JP2〗国外区位导向性政策研究的最新进展为雄安新区相关研究提供了新视角与新方法。通过总结国外区位导向性政策的现实应用,发现其具有应用灵活、实施区域不完全按照现有行政区划、政策目标多元化等新特征。从理论上看,集聚外部性、劳动力市场摩擦与空间关联效应的存在为区位导向性政策提供了理论合理性,但其作用的发挥受诸多因素制约。在实证评估中,现有研究主要利用基于微观大数据的拟自然方法估计区位导向性政策的因果效应,但现实中其具体效果差异很大,同一政策的效应在不同区位与时点也存在较大差异。因此,雄安新区建设中要兼顾公平与效率,促进区域协调,并对其进行针对性评估。〖JP〗     

Comparison of tail index estimators

We compare various estimators for the index of distribution functions with regularly varying tails by calculating their asymptotic mean squared errors after choosing the optimal number of upper order statistics involved (which is different for different estimators).     

论通货紧缩预警指标的选择 --以日本为例

上世纪90年代发生于日本的通货紧缩,对日本经济打击沉重,使日本经济陷入了长期的低迷状态。因此,研究怎样对通货紧缩进行预警不仅具有重要的理论意义,也具有重要的实际意义。本文利用日本1998～2002年的相关经济数据,分析了这次通货紧缩发生的一些先兆,旨在提出一套能对通货紧缩进行预警的指标体系。     

The introduction of seasonal unit roots and cointegration to test index aggregation optimality: An application to a Spanish farm price index

In this paper we present a methodological proposal of the way integration and cointegration analysis can best be used to test if the level of aggregation of an index is adequate. Using this proposal, we enquire the extent to which a Spanish aggregate farm price index captures the behavior of its components. First version received: October 1994/final version received: September 1998     

极化理论视角下我国金融发展的区域比较

我国金融业快速发展,但各地区金融发展的要素禀赋存在较大差异。如何从国家战略角度解决金融发展布局问题,需要深入思考。本文利用极化理论进行研究,首先通过主成分分析方法设计了我国金融发展综合指数。在此基础上,运用Esteban-Ray指数的原理构造了金融发展极化指数,依据该指数对我国金融发展极化情况进行考察。分析发现我国金融发展极化现象已经出现,并且极化速度较快,金融极化与经济极化表现出较强的负相关关系。通过对东中西部三大区域的极化趋势进行比较,发现东部地区与中西部地区的极化特点有较大差异,据此文章提出了相应的政策建议。     

中国区域经济差异的泰尔指数多指标测度研究

为了研究我国区域经济差异性,创新性地采用泰尔指数测度法,对我国1997-2007年间四大区域的经济差异及其演变过程进行了比较,设计了5个测度指标。分析得出4个结论,即全国五项指标的区域差异均有缩小的趋势;人均GDP、人均城乡居民可支配收入和城镇人均住房面积3项指标的区域间差异均占全国区域总差异的主导地位,另外两项指标比重较小;从区域内部差异来看,东部大于中部、西部,东北地区内部差异最小;地区的教育水平（除东北地区外）差异最大,而波动幅度最大的是城镇居民的人均住房建筑面积,这与全国五个指标的整体差异相吻合。     

浅议经济责任审计的评价

本文从任期经济责任审计的评价内容、评价原则以及评价指标三个方面分析和论证了企业领导人任期经济责任审计评价指标体系,针对任期经济责任审计中存在的问题提出了对策建议.