高压聚乙烯市场回顾及展望

由于受到各种因素的影响，我国的高压聚乙烯市场及生产企业面临巨大的压力。为了提高企业的竞争力，就提高产品技术含量，抓好产品结构调整问题提出了建议。     

SCSI总线在高速微处理机中的应用

本文详细地介绍了ＳＣＳＩ总线在高速微处理机中的应用，着重介绍了ＳＣＳＩ总线的结构和特点，以及ＳＣＳＩ控制器与高速微处理机之间的硬件和软件工作原理。采用ＳＣＳＩ总线进行数据交换，提高了数据通信的速率，保证了通信质量。     

开发人禽流感险是适应市场勇于创新的表现

当下正是人们普遍关注禽流感疫情之时，民生人寿和华安财险两家保险公司先后推出专门针对人禽流感的定期人寿保险，引起了保险界极大关注，褒贬不一，批评者认为这是哗众取宠；保费没有精算基础；发生大规模赔付怎么办。本文却认为推出人禽流感保险是新兴保险公司适应市场勇于创新的很好表现，开展特色业务一般都是通过经验估计制定费率，尔后在实践中不断调整和完善；在国家和整个社会全体动员积极预防禽流感的情况下，导致疫情大规模扩散引发大规模保险赔付的概率微乎其微，不存在影响其它险种客户利益的情况。     

Future of Economic Growth for South Korea*

More than 80 percent of US growth between 1950 and 1993 can be attributed to transition dynamics (increases in R&D intensity and educational attainment), with less than 20 percent of growth deriving from population growth. Similarly, growth accounting shows that 80 percent of economic growth in Korea can be attributed to transition dynamics. However, the specific factors that have moved Korea far from its steady state are significantly different from the factors that have done so for the USA. In addition to the growth rates of the two countries, we also analyzed the (steady‐state) level of output per worker to determine where the Korean economy is headed relative to the USA. In 1960, Korea was characterized as poor (0.111) relative to its own steady state (0.765), and incomes were at 11.1 percent of those in the USA. Since then, however, Korea has been growing more rapidly than the USA. In our analysis, we also consider the extreme case where total factor productivity levels converge completely. Interestingly, in this case, the USA and Korea exhibit unconditional convergence similar to what is generally observed in the OECD. As the economy approaches the steady‐state income level, however, the growth rate of output per capita will decline.     

Interference of Local Government, Industrial Concentrative Rate and Corporate Diversification

This paper studies the effects of internal and external environments on the strategic decision-making of diversification using the cross-sectional data of China＇s 1 033 non-financial listed companies in Shenzhen and Shanghai Exchange. Corporate external-environment is substituted by index of marketization and market concentrative rate, and internal-environment is substituted by governance framework and financial status. The multi-regression analysis shows that the strategic decision-making of diversification is prominently affected by external factors such as index of marketization and market concentrative rate, and is significantly negative related to the proportion of state-owned shares and corporate shares. There is no correlation between diversification and whether directors hold concurrently, or manager compensation, cash flow, and debt ratio.     

Should Estonia euroize?

Estonia has been operating a currency board arrangement tied to the deutschemark, now the euro, since 1992. Optimal currency area considerations, policy orientation and the flexibility of prices and wages in Estonia support a case for monetary union with the eurozone. But the European Union requires Estonia to wait until EU accession and subsequent Eurosystem accession before it can adopt the euro. In the meanwhile, gains expected from euroization — lower and more stable interest rates, lower transactions costs in trade and increased transparency, all of which would promote trade, investments and economic growth — would be forgone. In this context, the paper raises the question, should Estonia go ahead and euroize now? JEL classification: E42, E58, F33.     

人民币汇率定价的逆周期因子：启用时间、驱动因素与实施效果*

本文对2017年5月—2019年9月期间人民币汇率定价过程中逆周期因子的使用进行了测算，并构建非限制性VAR模型分析了中国央行两次启用逆周期因子的驱动因素和实施效果。研究发现：第一，相对于官方公布时间，两次逆周期因子调节均呈现出提前开始和滞后结束的情况，且调整幅度呈现逐渐收窄的趋势；第二，第二次逆周期因子的调节幅度大于第一次；第三，人民币汇率波动是第一次逆周期因子调节的主要驱动因素，而离岸在岸汇价差和汇率政策不确定性是第二次逆周期因子调节的主要驱动因素；第四，两次逆周期因子调节均对人民币汇率波动产生了抑制作用，但加剧了离岸市场人民币贬值预期。     

汇率风险套期比率确定方法的比较与评析

套期比率确定方法可大致分为基于回归技术和基于均值/方差理论的套期比率确定方法两类。采用新的计量分析工具来研究不完备市场中的套期保值,以及带“摩擦”的金融市场中的套期保值,将会成为现代套期保值理论新的理论领域。     

Dynamical analysis of corporate bonds based on the yield spread term-quality surface

Our aim of this research is to propose a model which estimates implied relative credit reliability from the yield spread of defaultable bonds and evaluates their spread risk. We introduce “yield spread term-quality surface” (YSTQS) which is defined on the space of duration and credit reliability of the issuers, and express their yield spread. First, we review the general pricing theorem of defaultable bonds with unpredictable recovery in the no-arbitrage context based on the external hazard rates. Second, we show that the dynamics of state variables determine the shape of the YSTQS, and they drive the YSTQS if the loss-adjusted hazard rates are described by a function of them. Finally, we show an empirical analysis of our model with daily yield spread, duration, and the credit ratings of corporate bonds.