现金股利对会计信息的治理

会计只能提供相对相关和可靠的信息,在控制逆向选择和道德风险方面作用有限,形成了会计目标实现的障碍,这迫使投资者不得不去寻找其他信息渠道,以期更有效地决策。现金股利就是投资者寻找的信息渠道之一,它和会计信息在提高信息的相关性、可靠性以及控制逆向选择和道德风险方面共同发挥作用,并形成竞争态势,这种竞争态势实质上起到了对会计信息的治理作用。     

人民币汇率预测及方法选择——基于ARIMA与GARCH模型

自2005年7月人民币汇率改革以来,人民币持续升值,已影响到经济生活的各个方面,正确分析与预测汇价及其波动对各经济主体金融政策与投融资决策的制定有着十分重要的意义。本文选取国内外学者较为认同的ARIMA和GARCH模型对人民币美元汇率建模,并对其预测误差进行分析,结果表明在对人民币兑美元中间价的预测中,GARCH模型预测相对ARIMA模型更优。     

信用衍生品的信用风险转移对金融稳定性的影响

银行信用风险转移激励与监管当局提高金融稳定性的目标是一致的,监管当局应该通过鼓励金融机构之间的总信用风险转移,使得信用风险转移的收益最大化;研究还发现,随着跨部门之间信用风险转移的出现,为了使得个体激励与提高信用风险管理中金融机构稳定性的社会目标相一致,应该鼓励部门之间的差异化监管。     

人民币汇率波动对国际企业价值影响实证研究

双对数计量经济模型可以较为准确地描述人民币汇率对国际企业价值的影响.实证分析表明,人民币汇率对企业中短期产生的影响较大,且影响强度随着国际企业外贸收入占主营业务收入比例的增长而增大.通过对行业指数(包括非金融行业指数和金融行业指数)的中期历史数据的分析,发现不同行业受到外汇风险的影响各有不同.作为研究结果的应用,根据实证结论有针对性地提出了外汇风险管理建议.     

Monetary policy shocks and exchange rates in Asian countries

In this paper, we empirically investigate the effects of monetary policy shocks on exchange rates in Asian countries. To do so, we use VAR models which impose sign restrictions on impulse responses to identify monetary policy shocks. We find that contractionary monetary policy shocks lead to significant exchange rate appreciation in Malaysia, the People’s Republic of China, and the Republic of Korea. However, in India, Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand, we find either a significant depreciation or no significant effect. These results suggest that an interest rate increase (or decrease) may not necessarily shield Asian countries from exchange rate depreciation (or appreciation) pressure following a U.S. interest rate increase (or decrease).     

The implementation of monetary policy in New Zealand: What factors affect the 90-day bank bill rate?

This paper discusses the implementation of monetary policy in New Zealand and its flow-on effects on the 90-day bank bill rate over the 1999–2005 period. The effects of external factors are considered as well. Our findings indicate that the maturity spectrum ratio exerted a positive effect on the 90-day bank bill rate while the allotment ratio did not. This interest rate had a tendency to revert to the level set by its Australian counterpart, though at a relatively slow speed. No such link exists between the NZ 90-day rate and the U.S. 90-day rate. Neither the maturity spectrum nor the allotment ratio contributed to the volatility of the most important short-term interest rate in New Zealand.     

Compensating Wage Differentials with Unemployment: Evidence from China

We estimate the economic value of mortality risk in China using the compensating-wage-differential method. We find a positive and statistically significant correlation between wages and occupational fatality risk. The estimated effect is largest for unskilled workers. Unemployment reduces compensation for risk, which suggests that some of the assumptions under which compensating wage differentials can be interpreted as measures of workers’ preferences for risk and income are invalid when unemployment is high. Workers may be unwilling to quit high-risk jobs when alternative employment is difficult to obtain, violating the assumption of perfect mobility, or some workers (e.g., new migrants) may be poorly informed about between-job differences in risk, violating the assumption of perfect information. These factors suggest our estimates of the value per statistical life (VSL) in China, which range from approximately US$30,000 to US$100,000, may be biased downward. Alternative estimates adjust for heterogeneity of risk within industry by assuming that risk is concentrated among low-skill workers. These estimates, which are likely to be biased downward, range from US$7,000 to US$20,000.      

Risk Perception and Buying Behavior: An Examination of Some Relationships in the Context of Cruise Tourism in Jamaica

Cruise tourism continues to grow substantially, even as many other forms of travel stagnate. In this era of increasing worldwide violence against tourists, safety, security, and risk abatement are becoming principal components in travelers' decision-making processes. This work examines the issue of perceived risk and safety and what impact these perceptions have on shopping behavior. The research takes place in Jamaica, a country with a reputation for aggressive vendors. Findings indicate that those visitors who traveled with others spent more time shopping and purchased more. Additionally, it was found that first time visitors express higher levels of discomfort with their surroundings than did repeat visitors, thus inhibiting purchase behavior. Finally, it was found that levels of perceived risk and security did have an impact on a traveler's intention to return to Jamaica.