商业银行国别风险管理国际经验与借鉴

中国金融对国际经济依存度的进一步提高加大了中国商业银行的国别风险,国别风险管理已成为我国商业银行全面风险管理的一个新的领域。对成熟的国家或地区商业银行国别风险管理经验的分析结果显示:加强国别风险管理可以提高跨国经营效率,从而保持金融的稳定。     

Expropriation risk and technology

This paper develops a unified framework to analyze the dynamics of firm investment in countries with poor legal enforcement. The firm's technology edge over the government generates endogenous property rights. Industry variation in the technology gap predicts a sectoral pecking-order of expropriations. Long-run investment distortions may be Pareto superior relative to persistent investment at the static optimum. The dynamics of investment and transfers depend on whether incentives (backloading) or efficiency (frontloading) concerns dominate at the initial division of surplus. An increase in government efficiency may reduce its welfare. The model provides a technology-driven rationale for the widespread use of conglomerate structures in emerging market countries.     

Optimal route decision with a geometric ground-airborne hybrid model under weather uncertainty

Adverse weather is the dominant cause of delays in the National Airspace System (NAS). Since the future weather condition is only predictable with a certain degree of accuracy, managing traffic in the weather-affected airspace is a challenging task. In this paper, we propose a geometric model to generate an optimal combination of ground delay and route choice to hedge against weather risk. The geometric recourse model (GRM) is a strategic Probabilistic Air Traffic Management (PATM) model that generates optimal route choice, incorporating route hedging and en-route recourse to respond to weather change: hedged routes are routes other than the nominal or the detour one, and recourse occurs when the weather restricted airspace becomes flyable and aircraft are re-routed to fly direct to the destination. Among several variations of the GRM, we focus on the hybrid Dual Recourse Model (DRM), which allows ground delay as well as route hedging and recourses, when the weather clearance time follows a uniform distribution. The formulation of the hybrid DRM involves two decision variables - ground delay and route choice - and four parameters: storm location, storm size, maximum storm duration time, and ground-airborne cost ratio. The objective function has two components: expected total ground delay cost and expected total airborne cost. We propose a solution algorithm that guarantees to find the global optimum of the hybrid-DRM. Based on the numerical analysis, we find that ground-holding is effective only when combined with the nominal route. Otherwise, it is optimal to fly on the route determined by the DRM without ground delay. We also find the formula of the threshold ground-airborne cost ratio, which we call the Critical Cost Ratio (CCR), that determines the efficacy of ground delay: the higher the CCR, the more effective the strategies involving ground delay. We conclude that both ground delay and route hedging should be considered together to produce the best ATM decisions.     

后金融危机时代房地产金融创新与风险防范

由美国次贷危机引发的全球金融危机深刻展现了房地产金融创新的现实风险,住房贷款供需两旺的繁荣背后,商品房价的高位运行足以引起我们对房地产市场风险的重视,以加快金融创新,增强防范意识和能力。     

指数风险偏好下的最优保险策略

本文讨论了当投保个体和保险公司为指数风险偏好时，在保费约束下投保个体的最优保险策略问题。本文采用求解对偶优化问题的方法求解这个问题，并给出当损失服从指数分布时最优保险策略解的解析式。本文最后讨论了投保个体和保险公司风险厌恶程度以及保费预算变化对个体最优保险策略的影响。     

Managing toxic chemicals in Australia: a regional analysis of the risk society

The paper takes examples from two decades of toxic risk management in Australia in order to examine the challenges that the conditions of the ‘risk society’ pose for the chemicals industry in this country. These issues for corporate governance are set against a shift in political discourse in the direction of the limiting of the state, co‐governance between state and industry, and new community involvements and responsibilities. The paper describes new social movements and alliances influencing corporate structures and processes for decision making in Australia. The case examples lead to conclusions concerning the fundamental innovations in the organizational design of regulatory bodies and corporations that are required if progress is to be made towards sustainability and the re‐establishment of public trust. The findings of this paper are symptomatic of the more general challenges that the ‘risk society’ poses for the mainstream political programmes and their frameworks for regulation, for corporate architecture and for the relationships between governments, corporations and the community.     

相互制保险公司在我国的实践与发展策略研究

相互制保险比照其他保险组织形式具有保险成本低和管理成本低等优势,引入我国后首先进入了农业保险领域,取得了初步的成效,同时在实践过程中也遇到了阻碍和困难。相互制保险的未来发展有赖于相关法律法规建设和自身管理制度的完善。     

新形势下廊坊高科技产业集群发展投资方略研究

高科技是更为先进的生产力,其发展的重要性和紧迫性日益凸显。在实现廊坊高科技产业可持续发展的过程中,科学有效的产业集群发展策略是关键。文章从高科技产业研究的背景出发,结合廊坊自身经济地理环境等独有条件,提出了进一步促进廊坊市高科技产业集群发展的投资方略。     

七级多指标识别模型在商业银行贷款风险防范中的实证研究

本文从商业银行的贷款实际业务中，设置了32个贷款风险因素指标，构建了七级风险模糊识别模型，力求用一套现代定量方法对商业银行贷款风险进行有效的识别，目的在于揭示受评对象未来偿付能力的大小，以及影响该能力的各种因素及其变化趋势，定量化分析受评对象贷款违约的可能性及其严重程度，从而对商业银行贷款质量得出评估意见。