基于生命周期理论的农业高新产业风险管理

基于生命周期理论,可将农业高新技术产业划分为种子期、成长期、成熟期和升级期四个阶段。文章根据产业化过程中每一阶段的特征,分析了各阶段的主要风险,如技术风险、市场风险、财务风险等的表现和成因,并相应提出有关加强知识产权的认定和保护、建立财政支持的农业科技保险、完善资本市场多渠道融资等方面的风险管理措施。     

新型金融衍生品的风险构成及其监管缺失研究

文章通过对目前全球金融危机中暴露出的新型金融衍生产品的高风险性和监管缺失研究,认为防范新型金融衍生产品风险必须通过明确界定金融衍生品依托的基础资产标准,强化标的资产质量的基础环节监管;通过完善信息披露制度将所有创造风险和掩盖风险的机构都纳入监管的范围之内;同时,应加快对新型金融衍生品风险监管技术的研究,打破分业监管职能,建立统一监管体制,做到监管技术上的全局性、系统性和高效性。     

CONSTANT PROPORTION PORTFOLIO INSURANCE IN THE PRESENCE OF JUMPS IN ASSET PRICES

Constant proportion portfolio insurance (CPPI) allows an investor to limit downside risk while retaining some upside potential by maintaining an exposure to risky assets equal to a constant multiple of the cushion , the difference between the current portfolio value and the guaranteed amount. Whereas in diffusion models with continuous trading, this strategy has no downside risk, in real markets this risk is nonnegligible and grows with the multiplier value. We study the behavior of CPPI strategies in models where the price of the underlying portfolio may experience downward jumps. Our framework leads to analytically tractable expressions for the probability of hitting the floor, the expected loss, and the distribution of losses. This allows to measure the gap risk but also leads to a criterion for adjusting the multiplier based on the investor's risk aversion. Finally, we study the problem of hedging the downside risk of a CPPI strategy using options. The results are applied to a jump-diffusion model with parameters estimated from returns series of various assets and indices.     

房地产金融调控新“亮剑”

2007年9月27日中央政府出台的《关于加强商业性房地产信贷管理的通知》实质上是国家新一轮产业大调整的开始,开发商对此认识不足,造成十分被动的局面。2008年8月28日中央政府颁布了《金融促进节约集约用地的通知》,第一次使土地管理和金融管理结合到一个文件,表示了政府在房地产领域控制金融风险的决心和力度。开发商应正确领会。     

浅析我国巨灾保险体系的构建

我国是世界上巨灾风险比较严重的国家之一，保险业应在巨灾风险管理中发挥应有的功能。起到“减震器”的作用。2008年我国南方雪灾及四川地震暴露出我国现行巨灾保险制度存在的重大缺陷——巨灾造成损失的保险赔偿远低于全球平均水平，绝大部分损失靠政府的补贴和扶持，国内防范巨灾风险的基本保险险种几乎是空白。因此，巨灾保险制度的构建迫在眉睫。     

Temporary contracts and young women in Spain

In this article we analyse the determinants of temporary employment through a balanced panel of workers from 1995 to 2000. First, we estimate a panel with 1267 individuals with ages ranging from 16 to 65 years. We obtain that the probability of having a temporary contract increases for people younger than 46 years old. Secondly, we estimate separately the sample of people younger than 46 years old and we obtain that the probability of temporality increases for young people with university level of education. More interestedly, the probability of being in a temporary contract is smaller for young women that for young men in Spain.     

Loan price modelling for local governments using risk premium analysis

Previous studies have highlighted the question of government loan interest as one of great current importance. Government borrowing levels are high, and reducing interest payments would generate savings to meet other spending needs and/or to lower taxation, thus supporting the sustainability of public finances. However, no previous study has presented a method for a local government to calculate its own credit risk and thus be in a position to negotiate lower interest rates on its borrowing. This article defines a financial model that enables local governments to estimate the interest rate payable on a bank loan, based on their credit risk premium, in accordance with the Basel II rules and the findings of our empirical study of large local governments.     

我国商业银行利率敏感性缺口分析

金融自由化的迅猛发展使得中国银行业正面临着严峻的利率风险,识别和衡量利率风险并提升国内商业银行的利率风险管理能力,是我国商业银行利率风险管理面临的迫切问题。本文针对目前我国商业银行在利率市场化进程中所表现出来的特征,以中国工商银行为例通过利率敏感性缺口的方法实证分析我国商业银行目前所处的风险状态,并给出利率风险的防范和规避措施。     

中小企业内地创业板上市的财务战略筹划

本文通过对中小企业财务的核心要素进行系统分析,结合创业板对上市企业财务上的具体要求,提出中小企业在筹备创业板上市的过程中的财务战略筹划方案。     

基于博弈论视角的新型农村合作医疗中供给诱导需求和供需合谋问题探析

利用贝叶斯博弈模型分析在新型农村合作医疗制度中医疗机构和农民之间的博弈,分析引发医疗服务供给诱导需求的原因,以及由于道德风险引发的医疗机构和农民之间的合谋,并且提出建立第三方购买机制等若干建议,以控制医疗费用不合理地快速增长.