个人购汇影响因素及风险防范研究

近年来个人购汇交易量持续增长，对个人购汇的影响因素、存在风险及防控措施进行研究，对于完善个人外汇管理、维护国际收支平衡具有重要意义。文章基于山东省个人购汇数据，深入分析了需求、政策和汇率三方面对个人购汇的影响效果，对当前个人外汇管理中的潜在风险和监管难点进行了阐述，并针对存在问题提出了进一步完善管理的政策建议。     

AN AXIOMATIZATION OF QUANTILES ON THE DOMAIN OF DISTRIBUTION FUNCTIONS

In an environment in which the primitive is the space of distribution functions, we characterize the quantile functions by the axioms ordinal covariance, monotonicity with respect to first-order stochastic dominance, and upper semicontinuity. We show how to characterize the VaR in a similar manner.     

Foreign exchange markets and oil prices in Asia

In this paper, we examine whether oil price can predict exchange rate returns for 14 Asian countries. A new GLS-based time series predictive regression model proposed by Westerlund and Narayan (WN, 2012) is used. The main finding is that higher oil price leads to future depreciation of the Vietnamese dong but future appreciations of the local currencies of Bangladesh, Cambodia, and Hong Kong. A comparison of the widely used Lewellen (2004) and WN (2012) estimators show that both provide similar results in in-sample analysis, although WN is relatively superior at longer horizons in out-of-sample analysis.     

Habit Formation in an Overlapping Generations Model with Borrowing Constraints

We introduce habit‐formation in the three‐period OLG borrowing‐constrained framework of Constantinides et al. (2002) by allowing the utility of the middle‐aged (old) to depend on consumption when young (middle‐aged). This specification enables us to separate the effect of the two habit parameters (middle‐aged and old) since each representative age‐group can face different levels of habit persistence. The two‐habit setup underlines some important issues with regards to savings and security returns which do not always conform to the standard findings in the literature. In addition, the model produces equity premium consistent with US data for relatively small levels of risk aversion.     

Size,value, and momentum in developed country equity returns: Macroeconomic and liquidity exposures

The paper investigates value and momentum factors in 23 developed international stock markets. We find that typically value and momentum premia are smaller and more negatively correlated for large market capitalization stocks relative to small. Momentum factors are more highly correlated internationally relative to value. We provide international evidence on three sets of risk exposures of value and momentum returns: macroeconomic risk, funding liquidity risk, and stock market liquidity risk. We find that value returns are typically lower prior to a recession while momentum returns often exhibit little sensitivity. Value returns are typically lower in times of poor funding liquidity, whereas, with notable exceptions, momentum returns are typically unaffected. Lastly, for almost all countries, value returns are high in poor stock market liquidity conditions.     

A model of medium term exchange rate forecast in an open economy The case of the mexican peso

Keynes (1930) and Samuelson (1965) proposals open the possibility of matching predictability and efficiency, as evidenced by the seminal study by Fisher (1930). Recent findings suggest that the foreign exchange market gradually incorporates relevant information allowing the formation of prices in a rational manner but not randomly. Models of exchange rate by term based on asset valuation suggest that the inclusion of risk in the spot rate increases the degree of predictability. The results show that after incorporating an accurate measure of risk, predictability of medium term foreign exchange rate increases.     

原油采购风险控制研究

本文将条件风险价值理论用于原油采购中,通过构建线性规划模型,达到在满足收益要求的条件下控制潜在风险的目的,最后进行了算例分析,结果对企业原油采购有一定指导意义。     

2011-2012年中国宏观经济分析与预测——复苏放缓、风险上扬与结构刚性冲击下的中国宏观经济

本文通过全面总结2011年中国宏观经济的3大表现,利用中国人民大学宏观经济预测模型,指出2012年中国将面临外部经济放缓、内部房地产市场深度调整、泡沫经济逆转以及金融风险加剧的冲击,但在结构刚性的约束下,政府将全面转变政策定位,从而保证中国经济在加速回落中实现反弹,全年经济增长呈现“前低后缓”的模式.     

供应链合作伙伴选择的风险识别与防范

对供应商选择过程中存在的风险进行正确有效的识别和防范,对于提升供应链整体的效率有着重大意义。在对供应链环境下供应商选择中的风险因素进行了识别的基础上,认为在供应链合作伙伴选择中存在环境风险、合作风险和能力风险三种风险,最后提出了相应的具体的风险防范措施,为企业有效地规避和减少供应商选择的风险提供了切实可行的策略,以期对企业有所借鉴意义。