基于VaR修正理论的投资组合优化模型

根据风险价值VaR的计算思路,本文提出了基于GARCH理论的风险计量投资组合优化模型;同时在修正的VaR——尾条件期望的基础上对证券组合投资的优化模型做了进一步的改进。     

我国创业板市场的风险研究及对策探讨

本文对创业板在中国的设立背景以及在中国的现状进行了分析,针对创业板存在的风险进行了系统的探讨,从而能够正确认识创业板市场当中存在的风险因素,以探寻降低创业板市场风险的手段和措施,促进创业板市场良性运行。     

浅议对安全生产风险管理体系建设的认识

本文主要是认识安全生产风险管理体系建设工作的必要性和重要性,落实责任与资源。旨在交流探讨如何抓住关键环节,推动体系工作,如何结合实际,全员参与,不断总结、持续改进进一步提高电力建设安全生产管理水平。     

APPLYING A GENETIC ALGORITHM TO INTERNATIONAL DIVERSIFICATION OF EQUITY PORTFOLIOS: A SOUTH AFRICAN INVESTOR PERSPECTIVE

This paper uses the genetic algorithm (GA) approach to generate a portfolio optimisation scenario of a South African investor who seeks to maximise return from investing in S&P500, FTSE100, NASDAQ, DOWJONES, CAC40 and the DAX from January 1, 2005, to January 31, 2008, but facing exchange rate risk. The GA searches for the optimal solution in the entire set of financial constraints without looking for partial derivatives of the utility function. Whereas most financial problems require a non‐linear and time‐varying model, the GA, with its survival principle of offspring chromosomes, is better suited to this type of problem than local optimisation methods. The performance of the GA is compared with two non‐linear models, namely the quadratic mean‐variance (QMV), which maximises the portfolio mean‐variance, and the quadratic variance minimisation (QVM), which minimises the portfolio variance. The results show that neither the QMV nor the QVM takes into account the domestic investors' risk attitude towards investing in foreign equities and therefore does not provide any international diversification benefits. In addition, the bootstrapping scenario of 10,000 simulations reveals that neither the QMV nor the QVM outperforms the GA in terms of Sharpe ratio and flexibility in dealing with investors' risk attitude towards investing in foreign equities denominated in foreign currencies.     

金融信用法律规制的理论探讨

金融信用交易随着金融业的勃兴而迅速发展,金融信用的发展要求有健全的法律制度,这已成为金融业持续发展的共识。作为规制金融信用的法律制度,其基本价值取向是保障金融信用行为的秩序与安全,这是制度的逻辑起点也是制度建构的基本目标。要实现这个价值目标,就要建立以金融产权法律制度和信用风险控制法律制度为核心的金融信用法律体系,同时还要从司法实践出发以整体主义的思维来推进金融信用的法治化。     

THE NUMÉRAIRE PROPERTY AND LONG‐TERM GROWTH OPTIMALITY FOR DRAWDOWN‐CONSTRAINED INVESTMENTS

We consider the portfolio choice problem for a long‐run investor in a general continuous semimartingale model. We combine the decision criterion of pathwise growth optimality with a flexible specification of attitude toward risk, encoded by a linear drawdown constraint imposed on admissible wealth processes. We define the constrained numéraire property through the notion of expected relative return and prove that drawdown‐constrained numéraire portfolio exists and is unique, but may depend on the investment horizon. However, when sampled at the times of its maximum and asymptotically as the time‐horizon becomes distant, the drawdown‐constrained numéraire portfolio is given explicitly through a model‐independent transformation of the unconstrained numéraire portfolio. The asymptotically growth‐optimal strategy is obtained as limit of numéraire strategies on finite horizons.     

Impact of China's currency valuation and labour cost on the US in a trade and exchange rate model

Ricardian dynamic general equilibrium analyses show that under free trade arrangements a low income country with lower wage cost and large endowment of labour has comparative advantage in trade. Efficiency gains from this enhance economic growth and welfare of households simultaneously in both low income and advanced economies. Theoretical predictions are empirically validated here with structural VAR analysis based on quarterly data over the time period 1995:1 to 2009:1 on China's relative wage cost, interest rate differential, real effective exchange rate (REER), relative GDP and the US current account balance. It is shown how the relative prices of labour, capital and the currency affect the economic activity in China and current account balance in the US. With free capital inflows and outflows and restrictions on labour mobility, comparative advantage of China and the trade deficit of the US will both be minimised if China allows real appreciation of the Yuan and complete adjustment in prices. Higher production cost and prices in China could reduce welfare of Chinese households and the trade imbalance of the US, while higher relative GDP of China lowers the current account balance for the US.     

石油企业集团跨国经营财务风险的对策研究

在我国石油企业跨国经营过程中,财务风险的严峻性日益凸显。目前我国石油企业集团跨国经营呈现区域广泛、业务范围复杂等特点,取得了突出的成果,同时面临严峻的石油价格风险、汇率风险、经济和投资风险。有必要从建立财务预警机制、监控海外投资风险、运用金融衍生工具避险等几方面对跨国经营中的财务风险进行有效防范和控制。     

Does conglomeration really reduce credit risk?

I quantify the effects of conglomeration on credit risk by first computing theoretical default probabilities for conglomerates and their hypothetical stand‐alone counterparts and then mapping them into physical probabilities using a comprehensive database of corporate failures. Comparing the credit risk of conglomerates with that of hypothetical stand‐alone firms, I report significant reductions in the annual probability of default for small firms. My results support the proposition that managers can have a strong incentive to engage in conglomeration, even if it reduces shareholder value and show for which firms this is the case.     

大型消防装备采购风险识别与规避

分析了大型消防装备采购风险来源及其成因,论述了风险识别的一般原则、基本步骤和主要方面,提出了大型消防装备采购过程中风险规避途径,对我国日趋增长的大型消防装备采购工作具有参考价值。