ESTIMATION OF GLOBAL AND NATIONAL LOGISTICS EXPENDITURES: 2002 DATA UPDATE

The objective of this research was to estimate logistic expenditure for the global economy. An Artificial Neural Network was used to generate national estimates. The estimation set constitutes 24 countries representing approximately 75% of the global Gross Domestic Product. The model utilizes variables that capture economic activity, transportation activity, income level, country size, and geographic location. This research updates previous estimates and represents continuous improvement of the estimation method, including new input variables, better information quality, mathematical model refinement, and methods of model validation.     

大病保险制度对农村中老年人医疗费用负担的影响研究

基于中国健康与养老追踪调查在2011、2013、2015和2018年的四期面板数据,本文利用地级市层面实施大病保险的时间差异,采用双重差分法实证分析大病保险制度对农村中老年居民医疗费用负担的影响,并从不同年龄层和收入两个角度对制度的实施效应进行异质性分析。研究发现：大病保险使农村中老年人的住院自付费用有效降低14.4个百分点,有助于医疗费用负担的减轻;大病保险的实施对中年人群体和中等收入群体的效果尤为显著,但对老年人群体、低收入群体和高收入群体的影响有限。据此,未来需要进一步完善制度设计,减少弱势群体的医疗费用负担。     

Impact of microcredit on borrowers’ expenditures: a fuzzy regression discontinuity design approach

This article uses the data from 69 villages in Bangladesh to estimate the effect of participation in microcredit programmes on household expenditures. A regression discontinuity design (RDD) is used to identify the credit effect. Our results show heterogeneous treatment effect on different types of expenditures. We show that access to credit reduces per capita expenditure on durable goods such as kitchen equipment, furniture, repair and maintenance of house and increases the expenditure on per school-going child. We also show insignificant impact of access to credit on non-durable goods and health care, recreation and gifts. Interestingly, our results indicate a positive impact of microcredit on village-level expenditures.     

高职院校支出预算硬约束探究

针对高职院校预算资金执行缓慢无力的现象,从高职院校内部着眼,分析主要原因,提出硬化支出预算约束的措施.     

政府间财政支出竞争性多标准检验及效应传导——兼析财政支出竞争的地区差异效应

本文运用绝对收敛标准、条件收敛标准、空间相关系数标准和变异系数标准对我国政府间财政支出竞争的存在性进行了检验.随后通过地方财政支出行为与地区经济增长的效应传导机制的梳理,实证分析了我国财政支出竞争的地区差异效应.     

Strategic Responses to Advances in Seismic Technology in the Petroleum Industry

The world petroleum industry has been revolutionized by a change in exploration technology from two‐dimensional (2D) to three‐dimensional (3D) seismic mapping. One of the main effects of the newer technology has been to decrease the cost of finding oil, particularly in offshore fields. We examine the impact of the new technology on the exploration activities of the major international petroleum companies and find that they have aggressively increased petroleum exploration expenditures. As a result, we suggest that the companies have achieved a prisoner's dilemma outcome, where they are collectively worse off in terms of profits, providing a possible explanation for the recent wave of large‐scale mergers in the industry.     

研发投入、专利与经营绩效实证研究:以台湾为例

世界各国将研发作为可持续发展驱动力,以研发投入作为创新政策工具之一,并将专利产出作为评估指标。基于台湾新竹科学园区6大产业1989-2012年经营绩效、研发投入、专利数和投资金额数据,运用回归分析方法探讨了研发投入、专利与经营绩效之间的关系与影响。结果显示,政府研发投入与企业经营绩效正相关;研发投入与专利数正相关,但专利件数与经营绩效相关性较弱;企业投资规模与园区经营绩效正相关。进一步验证了政府将研发投入作为创新政策工具的有效性,可为政府及企业制定研发创新政策提供参考。     

政府科技支出、生产率与区域经济增长实证研究

政府科技支出的主要目的是刺激和引导科技创新,促进技术进步,提升生产率。利用地区面板数据随机系数模型,实证研究了我国东、中、西部地区政府科技支出的生产率改进机制和效应,结果显示:不同地区、不同政府科技支出项目的生产率改进机制和效应不完全相同,故3个地区政府科技支出的调整方向不完全相同,虽然3个地区均需大幅减少政府挖潜改造支出,但东部地区应侧重于增大政府科学事业费支出规模,而中、西部地区则需重点扩大政府科技三项费支出规模。     

教育支出规模与方式对生育水平的影响

本文构建了一个两期的世代交叠模型,通过理论演绎发现,如果公共财政教育支出让家庭感知到其作为生育补贴的方式进入家庭生育决策模型中,那么增加公共财政教育支出的确会促进社会生育。进一步采用2006-2017年省级面板数据,进行经验研究和异质性分析发现:增加公共财政教育支出会促进社会生育但不显著;教育早期阶段财政投入越大,越会显著地促进社会生育,尤其在幼儿园阶段,财政教育支出每增加1%,出生率上升0.495‰;相比补贴给教育供方,补贴给教育需方家庭的财政教育支出更可能会促进社会生育,等等。给我们的政策启示在于,让民众感知到财政教育支出对生育成本的降低作用,加大幼儿园以及学前的财政教育支出,增强对教育需求方家庭的补贴。