金融官员与地方政府隐性债务风险：抑制还是提升——来自289个地级市的经验证据

文章基于2009-2018年289个地级市数据样本，结合"烙印理论"，考察了金融官员对地方政府隐性债务风险的具体效应及其作用机理。研究发现，相对于非金融官员，金融官员能显著地抑制地方政府隐性债务风险，表现为"治理效应"。进一步研究表明，巡视未覆盖地区、地区金融生态环境越佳和制度环境越好时，金融官员抑制地方政府隐性债务风险效果越明显。文章实证分析了官员的金融经历对地方隐性债务风险的作用机理及具体效应，有效地诠释了"金融副省长现象"，为金融干部队伍建设和金融监管提供理论解释与经验证据支持，也为现阶段防范化解重大风险攻坚战提供了启示。     

依法治校视野下高校教师聘任制探析

教师聘任制就是教师管理法治化,是依法治校在高校人事制度改革方面的核心内容。通过实施教师聘任制,我国高校实现了对教师单纯的自上而下的行政管理向平等协商的契约法律关系的转化,建立了教师管理制度的新格局,提高了学校的管理水平和核心竞争力。但不可否认,目前高校教师聘任制还处于初步阶段,面临着诸多问题。文章试图通过对中国高校教师聘任制不同历史发展阶段的特征的总结,探寻我国高校教师聘任制的历史发展轨迹和发展方向,并在此基础上,针对当前实践中存在的四个问题问题进行了深入分析,进而提出完善我国高校教师聘任制的设想,为深化高校人事制度改革,实现依法治校提供思路。     

The influence of the Industrial Internet of Things on business models of established manufacturing companies – A business level perspective

The emergence of the Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) poses a large impact on established business models of manufacturing companies. This study aims at analyzing the influence of the IIoT on these business models from a business level perspective. In particular, it focuses on the interrelationships between business model component changes. While the sparse body of extant management literature examines just a subset of business model elements as affected by the IIoT, a framework comprising an entire set of elements is provided. Besides, their direct and indirect interrelationships, and the most important changes in each of the elements, are investigated. For this purpose, an exploratory multiple case study approach is employed, which is based on relevant IIoT-related experiences of 76 German manufacturing companies. By triangulating data from semi-structured expert interviews and archival company material, the study provides in-depth insights and a better understanding of IIoT-driven effects on manufacturing business models. It contributes to extant management literature by revealing the value proposition, internal infrastructure management, and customer relationships predominantly influenced by the IIoT. Moreover, it is shown that IIoT-triggered business model changes are offer-driven, particularly by production and process optimization within customers' production systems. These value proposition changes result in subsequent modifications of the remaining business model elements.     

Current validity of the Delphi method in social sciences

The Delphi method is a popular technique for forecasting and an aid in decision-making based on the opinions of experts, which has been in existence for over half a century. This work evaluates its methodology and reviews its validity in the present day, especially in the area of Social Sciences. Three recent applications in this field are also explained, professional in nature, which have some characteristics that are not frequent with respect to other Delphi studies published. The main aim of two of these studies was to provide input for economic or statistical quantitative models, using the judgement of expert groups, while the third study aimed to analyse a complex social reality by means of a Policy Delphi in order to obtain reliable information before taking a policy decision. These applications highlight how this technique may be adapted to different social realities and requirements, making a positive contribution to social progress, provided it is applied with the necessary methodological rigour and with a good knowledge of the social medium in which it is being applied. Finally, there is an explanation of a number of lessons learned from the theory and aforementioned experiences, which may contribute to the successful outcome of a Delphi exercise.     

试析商业银行客户经理制中的委托代理问题

商业银行的决策层与客户经理之间是一种委托代理关系,由于决策层对客户经理的行为控制乏力,因而引发了委 托代理问题。本文作者在阐述客户经理中的委托代理问题的表现形式,并分析其形式原因的基础上,提出了遏制该问题的 措施。     

生态系统管理中的首要问题─—咨询与决策

中国政府和专家对资源保护、环境改善负有重大责任。实践中生态系统研究的难点和专家个人的局限性给咨询工作带来了困难，决策的正确性也常受到决策者思想方法的影响。实现生态系统的科学管理需要专家、决策者和政府机构协调行动。     

会计电算化的现状及其发展趋势

本阐述了我国会计电算化目前存在的主要问题：人们对会计电算化的认识还不到位、电算化基础管理工作十分薄弱、会计电算化人员素质偏低、会计软件所存在的问题。并相应地对所存在的问题提出了一些改进措施。同时探讨了会计电算化的发展趋势。     

Approach for a pro-active emerging risk system on biofuel by-products in feed

Worldwide biofuel products have rapidly entered the market and consequently so did the availability of their by-products for feed production. A pro-active emerging risk system for biofuel by-products is essential in order to prevent the occurrence of emerging hazards in feed and livestock production. In the current study, two biofuel by-products were elaborated upon, namely Dried Distillers Grains with Solubles (DDGS) resulting from bioethanol production and microalgae slurry resulting from biodiesel production. A holistic approach was used in which both factors from within the feed chain as well as outside the feed chain were incorporated. A list of critical factors linking dynamics in the biofuel production chain with possible feed safety risks was established after consultation of experts in in-depth interviews. Subsequently, a workshop was organized to determine the most important critical factors. Indicators (signals that indicate a change in critical factors) and information sources were linked to these factors for the individual cases. Based on expert judgment, the most important critical factors identified for the two selected cases were: chain complexity, composition of the feed product, origin of raw materials and climate change. Ranking of the indicators showed that in both cases the number of chain stages was the most important general indicator for feed safety risks.     

The Delphi method as a ritual: Inquiring the Delphic Oracle

Is Delphi just a namesake? Or does it make sense to connect the Delphi method to the ancient Delphic Oracle? To bring some elements of response to these questions, this article will present the Delphic Oracle in the first part and its actions with its prophecy seekers and the Oracle's staff, including the Pythia. This first part will show the importance of conforming to the procedure in the revelation of the Oracle and the latter's role in policy-making. The second part of the article will compare and contrast the oracular practice in Delphi with the Delphi method, and more generally with expert-based futures methods, from the characteristics of the knowledge revealed, on the one hand, and the role of the actors in this inquiring process on the other.     

基于任人唯亲视角的组织任用分析

人是组织的核心,组织选拔、任用人才是组织发展的关键环节。任人唯亲作为组织任用的一种表现形式,在所有文化中广泛存在,但是人们一直对其持批判态度。通过观察组织任用现实可以发现,任人唯亲具有一定的合理性。领导根据"亲"的关系准则(信任准则、信任预期准则、任务绩效准则和亲缘准则)来决定任用对象,这些关系准则受领导价值准则的影响,因此要规范领导的价值准则,才能确保组织任用成效。