Empirically testing ES success factors in business process reengineering

Previously proposed success factors for Expert Systems implementation are field tested in the context of business process reengineering (BPR) projects. Due to its nature mimicking human expert behavior, ES technology applications in BPR provide a unique opportunity to study major organization changes within a relatively short time. Using Pearson correlations and multivariate regression analysis, eight ES implementation success factors proposed in the literature were empirically tested in this study in terms of their importance to the BPR benefits derived from the application. Sixty-two ES applications within E.I. Dupont de Nemours and Company dealing with business process changes significant enough to be called BPR were used. Despite the relatively small sample size, six of the eight success factors were corroborated: user satisfaction with the ES, the importance and difficulty of the business problem addressed, user attitudes toward ES technology and the particular ES project, the degree of user involvement in the ES implementation process, and the ES developer(s) skills.     

The Effect of Extrinsic Cues on Imported Wine Evaluations: An Experimental Approach

ABSTRACT

This paper reports the results of an experimental study conducted to assess the effect of expert reviews, price, and country of origin, on consumers' evaluations of imported wine quality and value. The study revealed a main effect of expert reviews on quality and value perceptions, and that the effect of expert review is higher than the effects of price and country of origin. The study also revealed that country of origin effect is significant on perceived quality but not on perceived value. Moreover, the study revealed that the effect of country-of-origin information is significant when price information is also present, but becomes not significant when expert review information is added.     

航天测量船通信装备故障诊断系统设计

为更好完成海上卫星测控通信保障工作,根据航天测量船通信装备的特点及故障诊断需求,在将故障树分析法和专家系统两种故障诊断技术相结合的基础上完成了通用通信装备故障诊断系统的总体模型、知识库模型以及故障诊断流程的设计,该系统能有效辅助科技人员迅速、准确定位及解决装备故障。     

低碳经济背景下基层党政领导干部选任长效机制研究

发展低碳经济需要党政领导干部树立低碳理念,尤其需要基层党政领导干部树立科学的发展观、全面的统筹观、正确的绩效观。因此,如何把低碳理念科学地贯彻落实到基层党政领导干部选拔任用工作中去,构建长效激励机制已成为解决问题的关键。文章指出了低碳经济对基层党政领导干部提出的新要求,分析了基层党政领导干部选拔任用激励机制存在的主要问题及其原因,提出了完善长效激励机制的对策。     

Toward a better expert system for auditor going concern opinions using Bayesian network inflation factors

We develop an analytical model intended as the first stage in the development of expert systems to improve auditor knowledge in, and assist in the decision process of, Going Concern Opinions (“GCOs”). Our approach is consistent with a design science approach to developing information systems, resulting in an initial artifact, the mathematical model, which can, through iterative design science and behavioral research, inform a technology-based expert system. Based on Bayesian networks, our model provides insights about auditors’ revision, or inflation, of the probability to issue a GCO based on the interrelationship that forms with the incremental existence of one, two, or three publicly observable financial statement risk factors – net operating loss, negative cash flows from operations, and negative working capital. We calculate the revised probabilities using empirical data of GCOs from 2004 to 2015. Results reveal that the incremental relationship (one, two, or three factors present) effectively models expert auditors’ decisions to issue a GCO, and suggests the existence of these measurable inflation factors that represent situational and auditor-specific factors. We also find that Non-Big Four auditors inflate these factors differently than Big Four auditors to arrive at a decision to issue a GCO.     

Probabilistic population forecasting: Short to very long-term

Population forecasts are used by governments and the private sector for planning, with horizons up to about three generations (around 2100) for different purposes. The traditional methods are deterministic using scenarios, but probabilistic forecasts are desired to get an idea of accuracy, assess changes, and make decisions involving risks. In a significant breakthrough, since 2015, the United Nations has issued probabilistic population forecasts for all countries using a Bayesian methodology that we review here. Assessment of the social cost of carbon relies on long-term forecasts of carbon emissions, which in turn depend on even longer-range population and economic forecasts, to 2300. We extend the UN method to very-long range population forecasts by combining the statistical approach with expert review and elicitation. While the world population is projected to grow for the rest of this century, it will likely stabilize in the 22nd century and decline in the 23rd century.     

母公司超额委派董事对子公司投资效率的双刃效应研究

基于2010—2021年中国沪深A股上市子公司数据，探究母公司超额委派董事对子公司投资效率的影响。研究结果表明，母公司超额委派董事程度与子公司投资效率之间呈倒U型关系。进一步分析发现，在子公司董事会规模较小、董事会互动强度较高以及子公司其他董事社会资本较低的样本中，母公司超额委派董事的治理效应更加显著；母公司超额委派董事通过监督效应、资源效应、信息沟通效应对子公司投资效率产生影响。异质性分析发现，非国有股权属性、多个大股东会强化母公司超额委派董事的积极治理作用。研究结论丰富了超额委派董事在公司治理领域的研究，为母子公司情境下提高子公司投资决策质量提供了经验证据与理论借鉴。     

Effects of appointing new independent directors who are professionally affiliated with their predecessors: Evidence from China

The roles played by independent directors (IDs) have been extensively documented, but the question of how they are appointed remains insufficiently explored. We found that the likelihood of IDs being appointed was higher when they were professionally affiliated with the departing IDs, and this effect was more pronounced when either the predecessor had a compliant voting record or held more directorships in other firms controlled by insiders in the focal firm. The appointment of affiliated IDs who colluded with insiders through predecessors is positively associated with fewer dissenting votes, more related-party transactions, and more severe violations. The effect was stronger for firms that had higher concentrated ownership and were located in areas with a weak institutional environment. Our research showed that predecessors with low independence helps establish a reciprocity norm between affiliated successors and insiders, leading to weak board monitoring.