ON THE MOTHER AND CHILD LABOR NEXUS UNDER CREDIT CONSTRAINTS: FINDINGS FROM RURAL INDIA

There is an emerging consensus that lack of credit is a major cause of child labor and inequality in the intrahousehold distribution of resources. At the same time, patterns in how children spend their time appear to be strongly influenced by maternal employment decisions. This paper includes an assessment of the effect of credit constraints on maternal employment and that of maternal employment on the intrahousehold allocation of labor, a nexus which has been left unexplored by existing studies. Three findings emerge: (1) a mother is more likely to work outside when a household lacks resources, and her domestic labor can be easily replaced by other members, (2) credit market accessibility is one of the major determinants of maternal labor, and (3) elder daughters assume a large part of the burden of maternal employment by providing domestic labor. Under binding credit constraints, results of this study support the collective as opposed to the unitary model of households.     

Parameter instability, superexogeneity, and the monetary model of the exchange rate

Parameter Instability, Superexogeneity and the Monetary Model of the Exchange Rate. — This paper argues that failure to test for parameter time invariance yields misleading results. Time heterogeneity other than unit roots will make the parameters of the unrestricted system unstable and statistical inference invalid. However, if the instability stems from a particular subset of variables (superexogenous with respect to the parameters of interest), conditioning on them results in a partial model with stable parameters, and standard inferential procedures can then be used. We apply this methodology to test the monetary model of the exchange rate and find that both system and single-equation estimates support it in the case of yen-dollar exchange rate.     

The trade balance and the terms of trade in a two-country two-sector OLG economy

We consider a two-country, two-sector OLG model. It is shown that the trade balance and the relative price of exports are always positively related when exports are labor intensive regardless of the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption. A large response of savings to future prices becomes a sufficient condition for an inverse relation between these variables only if exports are capital intensive. In this case, a rise in the terms of trade can be followed by a trade balance decline if consumption goods are capital intensive and the income effect implied on savings is negative and large.     

Internal and external exchange rate equilibrium in a cointegration framework. An application to the Spanish peseta

A simple cointegration methodology is used to compute the equilibrium real exchange rate for the peseta. The stock of foreign assets and the evolution of sectoral prices are considered to be the fundamentals for the real exchange rate. After testing for cointegration, we proceed to decompose the series into a permanent and a transitory component, following the method devised by Gonzalo and Granger. The permanent component of the real exchange rate corresponds to its (time-varying) equilibrium value, and the deviation of the actual real exchange rate from this equilibrium value gives an estimation of the degree of misalignment of the real exchange rate. By the end of the sample (1998:1), the peseta is estimated to be undervalued around 6%.     

The Agency Problems Embedded in Firm’s Equity Investment

We find that agency problems are embedded in firm’s excess and abnormal equity investments that are mainly dictated by controlling shareholder’s motives and ethical choices manifested in ownership and board structure. The excess equity investment is gauged with respect to industry average. The abnormal equity investment is specifically referred to the number of nominal investment companies that are fully controlled by the controlling owners while subject to little governance. Our empirical evidences of 345 Taiwanese non-financial listed firms show that firm’s excess and abnormal equity investments are negatively correlated with controlling shareholder’s cash flow rights while are positively correlated with the control–cash flow deviation, and board affiliation. The results are supportive of the positive incentive hypothesis and the negative entrenchment hypothesis put forth by La Porta et al. (2002, Journal of Finance 57, 1147–1171) and Claessen et al. (2002, Journal of Finance 57, 2741–2742). The negative relation between equity investment and firm’s value further supports the agency postulation that corporate excess and abnormal equity investments represent a leeway for controlling shareholder to exploit wealth of minority shareholders. This study potentially contributes to the literature of business ethics by portraying an empirically testable linkage from controlling owner’s ethical choices to his actions and therefore firm’s value. Yin-Hua Yeh, Ph.D., is Professor and Director of the Graduate Institute of Finance at Fu-Jen Catholic University (FJU) in Taiwan. He is also the Director of the Center for Corporate Governance and Business Ethics at FJU. His main research and teaching areas are corporate governance, corporate finance, and merger and acquisition. Tsun-Siou Lee, Ph.D., is Professor of Finance at National Taiwan University. His main research and teaching areas are corporate governance, futures and options, and financial innovation. Pei-Gi Shu, Ph.D., is Professor of Business Administration at Fu-Jen Catholic University in Taiwan. He is also the Vice Dean of Management College at FJU. His main research and teaching areas are mutual funds and behavioral finance.     

DO MARKETS PENALIZE AGENCY CONFLICTS BETWEEN CONTROLLING AND MINORITY SHAREHOLDERS? EVIDENCE FROM CHILE

Using a sample of Chilean listed firms with widespread presence of economic conglomerates that use pyramid structures to control affiliated companies, we find that firms where controlling shareholders have higher coincidence between cash and control rights are persistently more valued by the market. We carefully check that our results are not driven by omitted variable biases and control for reverse causation using a feature of Chilean Corporations Law that provides an exogenous instrument for ownership concentration.     

Evaluating the Macroeconomic Effects of the ECB's Unconventional Monetary Policies

We quantify the macroeconomic effects of the European Central Bank's unconventional monetary policies using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model which includes a set of shadow interest rates. Extracted from the yield curve, these shadow rates provide unconstrained measures of the overall stance of monetary policy. Counterfactual analyses show that, without unconventional measures, the euro area would have suffered (i) a substantial loss of output since the Great Recession and (ii) a period of deflation from mid‐2015 to early 2017. Specifically, year‐on‐year inflation and GDP growth would have been on average about 0.61% and 1.09% below their actual levels over the period 2014Q1–17Q2, respectively.     

Aggregate stability under a budget rule and labor mobility

Whether a balanced budget rule stabilizes or destabilizes an economy depends on various factors such as the production function or the instrument used to balance the budget. This paper argues that migration, which has widely been neglected in the literature, also affects equilibrium properties. We study the effect of pro-cyclical labor mobility in a neoclassical growth model with public debt and a balanced budget requirement. Labor mobility can destabilize the economy due to external effects. After a negative shock hits the economy, living abroad becomes relatively more attractive, resulting in out-migration. This increases per capita public debt as migrants leave behind their implicit liabilities. The government increases tax rates to satisfy the balanced budget requirement, which further depresses the economy and increases out-migration. The destabilizing effect of public debt kicks in at only slightly higher debt levels than the ones observed in the Euro area after the financial crisis.     

Safe‐haven currency: An empirical identification

This paper attempts to empirically identify strong safe havens among six currencies: the Swiss franc, Japanese yen, British pound, euro, Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone. Using Markov regime‐switching vector autoregressive models, we test whether the currencies are negatively related to risky assets and whether the negative relation is stronger in times of crisis than in times of growth. We find that (1) the Swiss franc and Japanese yen qualify as strong safe havens, and (2) the other currencies qualify as “equity‐like” or risky currencies.     

Domestic Credit Growth and International Capital Flows*

During the pre‐crisis period, Europe experienced substantial cross‐country variation in domestic credit growth and cross‐border capital flows. We investigate the inter‐relations between domestic credit growth and international capital flows during the period 1993–2008, with a special focus on the boom period of 2003–2008. We establish that domestic credit growth in European countries is strongly related to net debt inflows but not to net equity inflows. This pattern also holds for an extended sample of 54 advanced and emerging economies.