Scientific methods in finance

Computer software can easily produce many financial models with technical skill, but investigators need to interpret and adapt computer output. Such analysis requires a deep knowledge of scientific fundamentals. We argue that an evidential perspective is more appropriate than a decision framework for model selection. We discuss four necessary conditions for any scientific investigation: observables, interpretables, replicables, and robustness in the context of examples familiar to finance professionals. Carefully planning the design of an experiment is the best way to address many econometric maladies. Furthermore, we emphasize the need for more sensitivity testing and for independent replication of empirical results within the finance profession.     

On the source of contrarian and momentum strategies in the Italian equity market

This paper investigates the source of momentum profits, while inferring the validity of the assumptions underlying rational and behavioural theories. Using a unique sample of securities listed in the Italian Stock Exchange from 1950 to 1995, we observe that buying better performing stocks in the previous 3-12 months and selling worse performing stocks over the same period yields significant profits in the short term (less than 1 year). Results also hold when conditioned upon different risk specifications. On the other hand, the continuation effect seems to significantly revert over a longer period. More importantly, in contrast with Conrad and Kaul [Rev. Financ. Stud. 11 (1998) 489], bootstrap and Monte Carlo simulations show that momentum profits are more likely to be generated by stock returns time series properties rather than by their cross-sectional differences. While the overall findings cannot reject the market efficiency hypothesis, we argue that behavioural theory may be a possible “story” to interpret the continuation effect.     

Market Valuation of Research and Development Spending under Canadian GAAP*

Section 3450 of the Canadian Institute of Chartered Accountants (CICA) Handbook requires Canadian firms to capitalize development costs that meet certain criteria and to expense those that relate to research. International Accounting Standard (IAS) No. 38 favours a similar approach. In the United States, Statement of Financial Accounting Standard (SFAS) No. 2 recommends the immediate expensing of all research and development (R&D) spending. The only exception is SFAS No. 86, which requires software development costs to be capitalized when a product successfully passes a technological feasibility test. Consequently, the Canadian financial disclosure regime provides a rich setting for testing the market valuation of capitalized R&D. Our primary research question asks whether capitalized R&D provides useful information to market participants investing in Canadian firms. We use price‐level and return models to assess the value relevance of capitalized R&D disclosed in the financial statements under Canadian GAAP. In line with expectations, using a price‐level model, we find that capitalized R&D and R&D expense as disclosed in the financial statements provide information that is value relevant to market participants. However, we find that R&D capitalized during the year helps explain returns while R&D expense does not. Thus we conclude that the application of section 3450 of the CICA Handbook produces value‐relevant information.     

房地产三种评估价格的比较分析

简要的阐述了比准价格、收益价格、积算价格三种房地产评估价格的形成机理及理论依据，并从对一种观点的局限性分析出发，综合运用市场供求理论、均衡理论以及短边原则，对不同市场背景下三种估价方法得出的评估价格进行经济比较分析。     

Informed and uninformed trading on the Australian dollar

Using a high-frequency data set of the spot Australian/US dollar, this study examines the distribution of quotes, spreads, and returns across the trading day. By identifying the direction of trade and the subsequent quote returns from contributing banks, the segmented nature of the market into market-makers and informed and uninformed traders is investigated. The results suggest that the economic gain possible from private information is maximised over 2 to 5 quotes and is rapidly eroded by 20 quotes (about 2 min later during busy trading times) as other new information enters the market. Also, the analysis is revealing of discontinuities in trading and the volatility of pricing across the trading day.     

Organizational learning and market orientation: interface and effects on performance

This paper discusses the relationship between market orientation and organizational learning and, in particular, the former's contribution to the generation of double-loop learning. Although prior contributions on this topic have been controversial, the authors, departing from the principles of RBV, consider market orientation a resource capable of generating higher order organizational learning and, in this way, capable of additionally reinforcing firms' sustainable competitive advantage. The empirical study provides evidence on the existing relationship between a firm's learning and market orientation degree and the organization's economic and non-economic results. Findings indicate that learning orientation stimulates the market-oriented behavior and that it also positively affects the establishment of long-term relationships with strategic clients. Contrary to prior research a significant and positive effect on business performance is only contrasted in the case of market orientation.     

Benefits of Downward Earnings Management and Political Connection: Evidence from Government Subsidy and Market Pricing

This paper examines the role of downward earnings management and political connection on the receipt of government subsidies and market pricing of subsidies. Using subsidies data hand-collected from Chinese listed firms over the period 2004–2014, the results show a significantly positive association between downward earnings management and the receipt of government subsidies. The results also reveal that a firm's political connection is conducive to securing subsidies for poor performers, but not for good performers. Market pricing analyses demonstrate that share markets value subsidies positively in general, but the effect is ameliorated in firms conducting downward earnings management. No discernible difference is found between the market pricing of subsidies received by firms with political connections and those without.     

Timing of earnings restatements: CEO equity compensation and market reaction

This study investigates the impact of chief executive officers’ (CEO) compensation on their choices regarding the timing of earnings restatements. The results indicate a negative relationship between options exercised and lags in disclosing the restated earnings, suggesting that managers who exercise options in a given year tend to release information quickly. This effect is more pronounced if the options are exercised after the dark period. We also find that the market penalises longer lags in the restatement disclosure. It seems that the CEO would try to optimise the timing of information release so as to balance the costs and benefits.     

中国贸易条件变动趋势分析——基于1993-2017年月度数据的研究

基于1993-2017年月度数据研究发现:中国三大贸易条件指数(2010=100)中价格贸易条件上下波动明显,标准差为6.0;收入贸易条件长期稳步上升,近三年相对于最高点下降了15%~20%;要素贸易条件一直呈上升趋势,标准差为66.2.人民币汇率一次性大幅度变动时,中国价格贸易条件有显著变动.人民币显著升值时,价格贸易条件马上明显改善,但维持时间不长,随后又发生逆转.人民币一次性大幅度贬值导致价格贸易条件长期恶化有一定的时滞.国外发生经济或金融危机而中国宏观经济较稳定发展期间,中国价格贸易条件改善.为此,我国应积极推动人民币汇率向均衡汇率靠拢,针对性地采取限产计划,以提升国际分工地位,从根本上改善贸易条件和增加经济福利.