The end of the flat tax experiment in Slovakia: An evaluation using behavioural microsimulation in a dynamic macroeconomic framework

The paper introduces a new way of linking microsimulation models with dynamic general equilibrium frameworks to obtain an evaluation of the impact of detailed tax and benefit measures on the aggregate economy. In the approach presented in this paper, income heterogeneity interacts with the macro-economy via aggregated individual labour supply decisions which influence, and are influenced by, the dynamic evolution of the real wage rate. The method involves a reduced-form representation of the information flow between the macroeconomic and microeconomic blocks. The practical usefulness of the approach is demonstrated by evaluating actual and hypothetical tax reforms that involve abandoning the flat tax system in Slovakia. A hypothetical move to a highly progressive tax structure is shown to generate some employment gains but is associated with a drop in aggregate income and tax revenue.     

Does it pay firms to register for taxes? The impact of formality on firm profitability

This paper estimates the impact of registering for taxes on firm profits in Bolivia, the country with the highest levels of informality in Latin America. A new survey of micro and small firms enables us to control for a rich set of measures of owner ability and business motivations that can affect both profits and the decision to formalize. We identify the impact of tax registration on business profitability using the distance of a firm from the tax office where registration occurs, conditional on the distance to the city center, as an instrument for registration. Proximity to the tax office provides firms with more information about registration, but is argued to not directly affect profits. We find tax registration leads to significantly higher profits for the firms that the instrument affects. However, we also find some evidence of heterogeneous effects of tax formality on profits. Tax registration appears to increase profits for the mid-sized firms in our sample, but to lower profits for both the marginal smaller and larger firms, in contrast to the standard view that formality increases profits. We show that owners of large firms who have managed to stay informal are of higher entrepreneurial ability than formal firm owners, in contrast to the standard view (correct among smaller firms) that informal firm owners are low ability.     

开征累进物业税的战略构想

地价过快上涨和投机需求旺盛是造成房价不合理上涨的两个重要原因。在城乡同时开征累进物业税可以解决上述问题。累进物业税的开征对象包括城市住宅、城市已出让土地及农村住宅。在城乡共同开征物业税的基础上,将物业税归为地方税种,在中央和地方之间重新分配土地出让金,弱化地方抬高地价的内在冲动。     

基于交易或事项分类设计所得税会计债务法分析

本文从影响所得即净资产变动(基于经济收益观)的交易或事项出发,分析了时间性差异与暂时性差异的成因,探索利润表债务法与资产负债表债务法的设计思路。在此基础上,提出易于与税法衔接简化的资产负债表债务法——发生额资产负债表债务法。     

中国政府间转移支付制度对改善收入分配效果探析

改革开放解放和发展了中国的生产力,使一部分人先富起来,但中国的贫富差距却被拉大了。作为一个社会主义国家,中央政府应该通过再分配的方式,让全体人民分享市场运作的成果,实现共同富裕这一目标。近年来出台的一系列社会政策显示,1998年后,中央政府既有政治意愿也有财政能力来调节收入再分配,然而,这些政策效果却不明显。本文以山西省1993-2005年县级财政数据为样本,通过分析中央政府转移支付结构和地方政府支出结构,得出中央政府通过对地方政府转移支付这一财政手段并不能有效缩小贫富差距这一结论。     

Size,trend, and policy implications of the underground economy

We study the underground economy within a dynamic and stochastic general equilibrium framework. Our model combines limited tax enforcement with an otherwise standard two-sector neoclassical stochastic growth model. The Bayesian estimation of the model based on Italian data provides evidence in favor of an important underground sector in Italy, with a size that has increased steadily over the whole sample period. We show that this pattern is due to a steady increase in taxation. Fiscal policy experiments suggest that a moderate tax cut, along with a stronger effort in the monitoring process, causes a sizeable reduction in the size of the underground economy and provides a positive stimulus for the regular economy. Both of these effects jointly increase total fiscal revenues.     

资源税改革中的税率选择:一个资源CGE模型的分析

长期以来,资源税改革一直受到社会各方关注,目前相关研究成果多集中于定性分析,对资源税税率的设置更缺乏定量研究.本文构建资源CGE模型,引入资源账户,通过枚举法对资源税对资源税税率设置的合理范围进行定量分析,研究资源税税率设置的合理区间.研究结果表明:如资源税税率设置合理,可以有效增加资源税税收收入,大幅减少资源消耗,增加社会福利,促进社会经济的可持续发展.     

中国省级税制结构变动的主导动因——基于面板门限模型的检验

国际经济一体化和国内政策调整主导了税制结构变化.政策制定者若顺应税制结构一般演变规律相应进行调整将会实现社会和谐发展,调整应同时兼顾国际化带来的冲击.从长期来看,经济发展对税制结构的作用程度减弱.若不存在冲击波动,税制结构将趋于稳定;税收来源的多元化和税收收入的指数化有利于降低税制结构波动程度.因此,开征财产税,实现社会保障的费改税,建构多元化且指数化的税收收入体系是我国中长期税制改革的方向.     

Tax collection,the informal sector,and productivity

An important determinant of informality in a country is its tax enforcement capacity, which some authors argue further distorts the decisions of firms and creates inefficiency. In this paper, I assess the quantitative effect of incomplete tax enforcement on aggregate output and productivity using a dynamic general equilibrium framework. I calibrate the model using data for Mexico, where the informal sector is large. I then investigate the effects of improving enforcement. I find that under complete enforcement, Mexico's labor productivity and output would be 19% higher under perfect competition and 34% higher under monopolistic competition. The source of this gain is the removal of the distortions induced by incomplete enforcement of taxes. These distortions affect the economy in three ways: by reducing the capital–labor ratios of informal establishments; by allowing low-productive entrepreneurs to enter; and by misallocating resources towards low-productive establishments. As a result, TFP and capital accumulation are reduced, and hence output. I decompose the gains following the guidelines of five leading papers in the literature of resource misallocation across plants. I isolate the effects of pure factor misallocation, distorted occupational choices, capital accumulation, and complementarities. I also study marginal improvements in enforcement and find that there is an inverted-U relationship between the size of the informal sector and output. This reflects the fact that improving enforcement entails a tradeoff: more taxes vs. fewer distortions.     

Conjectural variations, symmetric equilibria and economic policy

In this paper, we consider conjectural variations in a simple static general equilibrium model under oligopolistic competition. The modeling of conjectures captures the role played by beliefs in a micro-founded model. So, the economy may have three kinds of symmetric general equilibria. Furthermore, these equilibria can be Pareto-ranked by the conjectural variation parameter. Finally, we consider the implementation of a tax on the strategic behaviors in case of balanced-budget rule. The comparative statics illustrates the idea according to which the effectiveness of the multiplier mechanism to mitigate the market distortions depends on the symmetric equilibrium considered. Therefore, the effect of the tax on the prices and economic activity depends on the degree of market power which is conjectured by the agents.