Financial crisis in Southeast Asia: dispelling illusion the Minskyan way

This paper extends Minsky's financial instability hypothesisto the case of the open, ‘liberalised’, economy,making it possible to put forward a specifically Minskyan accountof the road to the financial crisis in Southeast Asia (1997/1998).The analysis suggests that the threats to growth and employmentemanating from the financial sector which Minsky identifiedin the closed economy setting are much intensified in open,liberalised, developing economies. Financial liberalisationis an important key factor in this process. Rival explanationsof the crisis are examined and rejected in favour of the extendedMinskyan explanation. The policy implications are derived anddiscussed.     

Further evidence on finance-growth causality: A panel data analysis

This paper reassesses the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth. Using recently developed panel methods on a data set of 71 developed and developing countries over the period 1960-2004, our study confirms previous results of a bidirectional causality between finance and growth. In addition, we show significant differences among country groups when considering both long-run and short-run causality. While in low and middle income countries there is no supportive evidence of short-run causality between financial development and economic growth, in high income countries economic growth significantly affects financial development.     

2008年金融危机成因之我见

温家宝总理在2011年3月的政府工作报告中一再强调,2008年金融危机是百年罕见的国际金融危机。对于2008年金融危机产生的原因,各国学者似乎已达成一致共识。文章结合相应的经济理论基础与各国应对金融危机的成效,创新性地提出2008年金融危机产生的原因是科技创新遇阻,认为里程碑式的科技创新成果将是本轮金融危机成为过去的标志。     

上市公司财务报表附注披露存在的问题、原因及改进

本文首先从我国会计环境的实际出发,指出应对上市公司财务报表附注披露进行适度管制,在此基础上结合实例重点分析了我国上市公司财务报表附注披露存在的问题及成因。由于政出多门等原因,我国上市公司财务报表附注披露信息过载与披露不充分问题并存。     

论上市公司会计报表粉饰行为的识别及其防范

近几年我国证券市场出现的几宗大案使人们对会计报表的粉饰有了极大的关注,本文通过对上市公司报表粉饰的动机、常用手段的分析,提出了识别会计报表的粉饰的有效方法,以提高广大投资者识别盈余管理等粉饰方法的能力。     

上市公司利润泡沫的剖析

利润是企业经营成果的集中体现,也是衡量企业经营管理业绩的主要指标之一。随着财务报告信息在市场经济中地位的不断提升,部分上市公司为了寻求对自己有利的财务成果,不惜一切手法操纵利润,甚至采用欺诈手段不合法地调整企业的利润,形成了泡沫利润,损害了投资者的利益,影响了我国证券市场的正常发展。本文针对目前上市公司财务报表的利润浮夸现象,就企业泡沫利润的形成原因、手段进行分析,并对如何识别泡沫利润的手段提出了初浅的看法,最后提出了相应的防范措施。     

IT环境下财务监控内容的拓展

IT技术发展及其在社会经济活动中的广泛应用,促使财务监控由人工系统向计算机系统转换,财务监控内容也就实现了从是否有用且可能提供到仅仅考虑是否有用的转变,在广度、深度、关联度、动态连续性等方面得到充分拓展。IT环境下的财务监控内容可以从对具体财务活动的真实合法性监控、对财务活动综合作用结果的合理性监控两方面进行描述。而财务监控结果则可按分部、会计期间、差异程度、重要性等方式予以揭示,也可以同时按其几种方式进行多维揭示。从某种意义上说,IT环境下财务监控内容的拓展实际上是一种数据挖掘。     

我国财务会计概念框架重要性和可行性探讨

本文从各国财务会计概念框架的实践现状和会计准则的概念框架特征入手,对我国建立概念框架的重要性、可行性进行分析,同时对我国准则制订机构和制订程序的优化提出了初步的建议。     

Natural disasters,growth and institutions: A tale of two earthquakes

We examine the impact of natural disasters on GDP per capita by applying the synthetic control approach and using a within-country perspective. Our analysis encompasses two large-scale earthquakes that occurred in two different Italian regions in 1976 and 1980. We show that the short-term effects are negligible in both regions, though they become negative if we simulate the GDP that would have been observed in absence of financial aid. In the long-term, our findings indicate a positive effect in one case and a negative effect in the other, largely reflecting divergent patterns of the TFP. Consistent with these findings, we offer further evidence suggesting that a quake and related financial aid might either increase technical efficiency via a disruptive creation mechanism or reduce it by stimulating corruption, distorting the markets and deteriorating social capital. Finally, we show that the bad outcome is more likely to occur in regions with lower pre-quake institutional quality. As a result, our evidence suggests that unanticipated local shocks are likely to change long run growth rates, exacerbating territorial disparities.     

Bank capital and the macroeconomy: Policy considerations

We develop a macroeconomic model in which the balance sheet condition of financial institutions plays an important role in the determination of asset prices and economic activity. The financial intermediaries in our model are required to make investment commitments before a complete resolution of idiosyncratic funding risk that can be addressed only by costly refinancing, forcing them to behave in a risk-averse manner. The model shows that the balance sheet condition of intermediaries can drive asset values away from their fundamentals, causing aggregate investment and output to respond to shocks to intermediaries. We use this model to evaluate several public policies designed to address balance sheet problems at financial institutions. With regard to short-run policies, we find that capital injections conditioned upon voluntary recapitalization can be a more effective tool than asset purchases. With regard to long-run policies, we demonstrate that higher capital requirements can have sizable short-run effects on economic activity, and that a long transition period helps avoid undesirable side effects. Finally, we show that the marginal effects of policies can be larger during “crises” because of the nonlinear interactions between some financial frictions and policy actions.