The role of managerial risk‐taking in the ‘rise and fall’ of the CDS market

Since the innovation of credit default swaps (CDSs) in 1997, the market for CDSs grew dramatically to $62 trillion in 2007 (ISDA 2010). However, this market declined significantly with the onset of the GFC, prompting the question, ‘What lies behind the phenomenal growth and the eventual collapse of the CDS market?’ Using CDS spread data from 319 bank and non‐bank financial institutions across 33 countries over the period 2001–2010, I provide evidence of the determinants that affect risk‐taking by financial institutions, proxied by CDS spreads, and argue within an agency theoretical framework that managerial risk‐taking contributed to the ‘rise and fall’ of the CDS market.     

Herding behaviour in the Australian loan market and its impact on bank loan quality

We examine the effect of herding behaviour on the credit quality of bank loans in Australia. We find that bank herding varies with different types of loans. It tends to be more prevalent in owner‐occupied housing loans and credit cards than other types of loans. During the global financial crisis period, herding in owner‐occupied housing loans was most pronounced due to the flight‐to‐quality phenomenon in the housing sector. Furthermore, we find that the big four banks tend to herd more than smaller and regional banks. Bank herding behaviour is countercyclical, as it is negatively related to real GDP growth and the cost of funding but is positively related to market risk. Regulatory capital requirements may also encourage herding as banks are required to hold less risk‐weighted capital for residential loans. Most importantly, bank herding is related to higher impaired assets and therefore lower loan quality. Our findings may have implications for policymakers and bank regulators.     

Quadratic Hawkes processes for financial prices

We introduce and establish the main properties of QHawkes (‘Quadratic’ Hawkes) models. QHawkes models generalize the Hawkes price models introduced in Bacry and Muzy [Quant. Finance, 2014, 14(7), 1147–1166], by allowing feedback effects in the jump intensity that are linear and quadratic in past returns. Our model exhibits two main properties that we believe are crucial in the modelling and the understanding of the volatility process: first, the model is time-reversal asymmetric, similar to financial markets whose time evolution has a preferred direction. Second, it generates a multiplicative, fat-tailed volatility process, that we characterize in detail in the case of exponentially decaying kernels, and which is linked to Pearson diffusions in the continuous limit. Several other interesting properties of QHawkes processes are discussed, in particular the fact that they can generate long memory without necessarily being at the critical point. A non-parametric fit of the QHawkes model on NYSE stock data shows that the off-diagonal component of the quadratic kernel indeed has a structure that standard Hawkes models fail to reproduce. We provide numerical simulations of our calibrated QHawkes model which is indeed seen to reproduce, with only a small amount of quadratic non-linearity, the correct magnitude of fat-tails and time reversal asymmetry seen in empirical time series.     

中国金融市场风险与宏观经济景气之间的关联动态研究

为了揭示中国金融体系与宏观经济运行的系列结构性变化及其关联动态,文章分别基于货币流动性宽松程度、剩余收益模型以及银行资产负债表,对中国货币市场、股票市场与银行体系的风险进行了测度和评估;并在分析上述三个金融子市场风险变动规律及其传递机制的基础上,运用时变参数向量自回归模型实证检验了各金融市场风险与宏观经济景气之间的关联动态。研究发现:在金融危机爆发前后,不同金融市场风险之间的传递关系发生了重要转变,并且与宏观经济景气变动之间的交互影响也存在显著的阶段性差异,呈现出"良性循环"与"恶性螺旋"的非对称性切换。这些研究为中国新时期积极转变宏观经济调控政策决策机制、创新宏观经济调控与金融监管模式,实现宏观经济与金融体系的双重稳定提供了有益的经验依据与政策启示。     

上市促进了企业创新吗?——来自创业板制造业企业的经验证据

本研究利用手工收集的2009-2013年在创业板市场申请上市的制造业企业样本以及企业创新专利变量,经过对成功上市企业与终止上市企业的样本匹配,运用双重差分模型考察了上市是否促进我国创业板制造业企业创新,研究结果表明,上市显著促进了企业专利创新。进一步地,我们探讨了上市促进企业创新的机制,结果发现,上市通过改善融资约束显著促进了企业创新,而上市没能通过影响代理问题作用于企业创新。该结果意味着直接金融发展有助于推动企业创新;资本市场的风险分担及融资机制能够降低企业融资约束、进而促进企业创新。这不仅为直接金融促进企业创新提供了新的证据,也为我国进一步发展与完善资本市场,进而促进经济转型、创新发展提供了新的政策启示。     

不同来源金融资本对企业研发投入的影响研究

以中小板上市公司为样本,就不同来源金融资本对企业研发投入的影响进行了理论分析与实证检验。结果发现：①内源融资与企业研发投入正相关,高成长性企业表现尤为显著;②政府补助与企业研发投入正相关,资产负债率与企业研发投入负相关,且资产负债率负向调节政府补助与企业研发投入的正相关关系。企业应适度控制债权融资水平,提高企业研发投入动机,并有效发挥政府补助对研发投入的积极作用;③风险投资、外商直接投资与机构投资者对企业研发投入的影响不显著。     

The triggers and clustering properties of merger waves

This article studies the triggers and the agglomeration of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity within clusters constituted by time, market and industry. Based on almost 500,000 individual transactions, we find that industry factors play a significant role in triggering activity and that M&A agglomerates strongly across related industries. While clustering in time turns out to be insignificant, stock market effects can be either an attracting or a repelling force, depending on the type of deal examined. This supports the view that merger waves are largely driven by industry shocks.     

企业资源对新创上市公司创业投资决策的影响

公司创业投资（CVC）是企业外延式发展的主要路径,主要发生在大型成熟企业。近年来,我国创业板新创上市企业发生的CVC活动也比较活跃,企业资源成为影响企业选择CVC战略的重要因素。以2009-2011年在创业板上市的204家制造业企业为样本,通过其从上市至2014年12月31日之间参与的CVC数据,分析企业技术资源、财务资源和商誉资源对新创企业CVC决策的影响。通过二分类Logit实证检验发现：技术资源对新创上市企业选择CVC战略具有积极影响;充裕的现金流对新创上市企业选择CVC战略具有促进作用;商誉资源对公司创业投资决策的影响并不显著。     

Reputational Herding in Financial Markets: A Laboratory Experiment

We study reputational herding in financial markets in a laboratory experiment. In the spirit of Dasgupta and Prat [2008], career concerns are introduced in a sequential asset market where wages for investors are set by subjects in the role of employers. Employers can observe investment behavior, but not investors' ability types. Thereby, reputational incentives may arise endogenously. We find that a sizable fraction of investors follows an established trend even in a setting where there are no reputational incentives. In a setting where there are reputational concerns, they do not seem to create substantial herd behavior.     

The relationship between financial sector development and savings mobilisation in South Africa: An empirical study

This article examines the link between financial sector development and savings mobilisation in South Africa for the period 1980–2012. Taking the life-cycle hypothesis as our theoretical background and using Johansen co-integration that allows for hypothesis testing, the empirical results revealed a long-run relationship between savings, interest rates and financial sector development. We find an inverse relationship between the interest rate and savings, implying that South Africans are net borrowers because the income effect overwhelms the substitution effect. This in part explains the low level of savings in recent time. Important policy lessons for boosting the national savings rate are discussed.