开放条件下的财政与货币政策效果分析

引入国际经济部门之后,IS—LM模型扩展为IS—LM—BP模型,财政政策、货币政策的效果或被放大,或被抑制,完全不同于封闭经济情形下的分析。以IS—LM—BP模型为切入点,分别对固定和浮动汇率制度下的财政、货币政策效果进行了分析。     

The impacts of international tourism demand on economic growth of small economies dependent on tourism

This paper studies the impacts on economic growth of a small tourism-driven economy caused by an increase in the growth rate of international tourism demand. We present a formal model and empirical evidence. The ingredients of the dynamic model are a large population of intertemporally optimizing agents and an AK technology representing tourism production. The model shows that an increase in the growth of tourism demand leads to transitional dynamics with gradually increasing economic growth and increasing terms of trade. In our empirical application, an econometric methodology is applied to annual data of Antigua and Barbuda from 1970 to 2008. We perform a cointegration analysis to look for the existence of a long-run relationship among variables of economic growth, international tourism earnings and the real exchange rate. The exercise confirms the theoretical findings.     

基于系统动力学的危险化学品运输风险因素研究

为了降低危化品运输事故频次,规避危化品在运输过程中的风险,基于系统动力学模型,从人、机、环、管4个维度构建危化品运输风险因素指标体系,使用AHP法对指标权重进行赋值,结合风险因素间的因果关系构建参数方程,利用Vensim软件仿真模拟危化品运输风险水平的变化趋势,确定单因素变量值和人、机、环、管风险子系统权重的变化对危化品运输风险系统动力学模型的影响程度。结果表明：安全意识薄弱、设备故障等风险因素的变动以及人、机、环、管风险子系统的权重变动都会影响危化品运输风险水平,人、机、环、管4个子系统对危化品运输风险的影响程度从高到低依次是人、管、环、机。研究结果可为降低危化品运输过程中的风险和制定危化品运输事故预防策略提供一定参考。     

The cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy: evidence from the OECD

This paper addresses the topic of cyclicality in fiscal policy. In particular, we show that the level of cyclicality varies across spending categories and across OECD countries. In line with leading theories of fiscal cyclicality, we show that countries with volatile output and dispersed political power are the most likely to run procyclical fiscal policies. Wage government consumption is highlighted as the most important channel by which these variables affect fiscal cyclicality.     

The Learning Tourism Destination: The potential of a learning organisation approach for improving the sustainability of tourism destinations

Globalisation, increasing complexity, and the need to address triple-bottom line sustainability have seen the proliferation of Learning Organisations (LO) who, by definition, have the capacity to anticipate environmental changes and economic opportunities and adapt accordingly. Such organisations use system dynamics modelling (SDM) for both strategic planning and the promotion of organisational learning. Although SDM has been applied in the context of tourism destination management for predictive reasons, the current literature does not analyse or recognise how this could be used as a foundation for an LO. This study introduces the concept of the Learning Tourism Destinations (LTD) and discusses, on the basis of a review of six case studies, the potential of SDM as a tool for the implementation and enhancement of collective learning processes. The results reveal that SDM is capable of promoting communication between stakeholders and stimulating organisational learning. It is suggested that the LTD approach be further utilised and explored.     

生态旅游地发展的模型研究

这篇文章运用生态-经济的理论,利用系统动力学的方法,将生态旅游的一些零散论述加以系统化,并通过建立生态旅游的结构模型,探讨生态旅游发展中生态、社会和经济系统之间的结构和行为关系.生态旅游发展的模型涉及了物质资源、文化资源、基础设施、工作市场、游客和财务促销等6个部分,模型的模拟功能有助于理解旅游发展的复杂结构.模型得到验证后,可以成为评价旅游发展政策的工具.     

Implementing Sustainability Reporting （SR）： （Neo-） Institutional Theory Insights in the Analysis of the SGR Group,Italy and CityGas,Bulgaria

The aim of this paper is to investigate how the corporate characteristics and contextual factors influence the choice of managers in initiating the sustainability report/reporting （SR） and to understand the role of organisational dynamics. The research design develops through a deductive and inductive approach. The deductive approach is based on an analysis of the Social and Environmental Accounting Research （SEAR） strands which use the theoretical framework of （neo-） institutional theory to inquire the adoption and diffusion of SR. The inductive method is based on a research case that focuses on the SGR Group. ＂How can the rico-institutional theory help explain the process of SGR＇s SR implementation in Italian and Bulgarian companies＂？ The study identifies both the internal and contextual factors associated with the SR development and the regulative, normative, and cognitive dimensions/factors that affect the implementation and institutionalisation of SR in Italy and Bulgaria, in accordance with the different institutional environments in which the social and sustainability accounting projects are developed.     

Competitive dynamics research: An insider’s odyssey

This paper introduces competitive dynamics research, a body of work that has emerged in the strategic management field over the last two decades. I will focus on my scholarly pursuit—both the substance and the process—during the early years of my faculty career. I will use my twelve core publications written during this period to outline the entire research program, highlight the makeup of each of the four sub-streams of the program, and show how these streams are linked. I will also share my personal learning in the process of building this research program. The paper aims to convey some firsthand experience for researchers and scholars, especially those starting in their careers and international scholars who are interested in publishing in major U.S.-based journals, so they can construct their own research programs and cope with the manifold process challenges in research and publishing.

Nested identities as cognitive drivers of strategy

Research Summary: Organizations face tensions to conform to industry norms for legitimacy yet differentiate for competitive advantage when implementing strategies. We suggest this tension is due to and resolved through organizations’ cognitive negotiations of multiple levels of identity. Through an inductive study in the recreational vehicle industry, we find that organizations concurrently draw on identities at the organizational, industry, and strategic group levels to formulate and enact specific competitive actions. Specifically, we find that organizational identity relates to decisions on product offerings; industry identity relates to downstream strategy; and strategic group identity relates to upstream strategy, firm boundaries, and expansion mode. Our findings highlight the importance of strategic group identity and inform a grounded model describing how organizations draw upon different levels of identity to influence strategy. Managerial Summary: Many managers experience tensions of differentiating their firms’ competitive actions from rivals, while conforming with industry norms and practices. In this article, we argue that a manager can navigate these tensions by understanding their firm, strategic group, and industry identities and how these identities interrelate. Through a qualitative case study of the U.S. recreational vehicle industry, we show that each level of identity influences different competitive actions, with firm identity connected to product offerings, industry identity related to managing downstream distribution, and strategic group identity related to firm boundary and acquisition strategies. Overall, strategic group identity is the most critical for managers as this level filters how they view competitors and provides the rules of competition.     

基于演化范式的技术创新动力机制研究

演化范式的兴起和发展为重新审视技术创新动力机制问题提供了有益视角,应用其倡导的生物学隐喻研究方法,技术可以被理解为以技术知识作为基因型的表型。技术创新的动力一方面来源于技术知识的变化即新技术知识的生产。另一方面来自环境的激活作用,以此为主线可以构建一种有效的技术创新演化动力机制理论。