Growth without normal capacity utilization

Within the demand-led approach to growth, the long-period tendencies of quantities cannot be effectively studied through theoretical positions entailing normal utilization of capacity. Whether in the form of constant or of average normal utilization, this assumption contradicts the supposed autonomy of aggregate demand. Analysis of the operation of the adjustment of capacity to demand suggests that potentially offsetting forces make fully adjusted positions irrelevant. As quantities cannot be assumed to gravitate towards such positions, the relations between quantity variables determined on the normal utilization hypothesis provide a poor guide to the analysis of reality.     

The Non-Trivial Choice between Innovation Indicators

We discuss the strengths and weaknesses of five alternative innovation indicators: R&D, patent applications, total innovation expenditure and shares in sales taken by imitative and by innovative products as they were measured in the 1992 Community Innovation Survey (CIS) in the Netherlands. We conclude that the two most commonly used indicators (R&D and patent applications) have more (and more severe) weaknesses than is often assumed. Moreover, our factor analysis suggests that there is little correlation between the various indicators. This underlines the empirical relevance of various sources of bias of innovation indicators as discussed in this paper.     

Nowcasting China’s GDP Using a Bayesian Approach

Real time nowcasting is an assessment of current-quarter GDP from timely released economic and financial series before the GDP figure is disseminated. Providing a reliable current quarter nowcast in real time based on the most recently released economic and financial monthly data is crucial for central banks to make policy decisions and longer-term forecasting exercises. In this study, we use dynamic factor models to bridge monthly information with quarterly GDP and achieve reduction in the dimensionality of the monthly data. We develop a Bayesian approach to provide a way to deal with the unbalanced features of the dataset and to estimate latent common factors. We demonstrate the validity of our approach through simulation studies, and explore the applicability of our approach through an empirical study in nowcasting the China’s GDP using 117 monthly data series of several categories in the Chinese market. The simulation studies and empirical study indicate that our Bayesian approach may be a viable option for nowcasting the China’s GDP.     

中国养活自己能力的长期预测:技术和政策分析

中国拥有世界五分之一强的人口 ,收入又在迅速增长。因此 ,国际上很自然地会考虑或推测她在今后的几十年是否有能力养活自己。中国的人口预计将从 2 0 0 0年的 1 2 8亿增长到 2 0 2 0年的 1 4 6亿 ,和 2 0 3 0年的 1 4 9亿。与此同时 ,人均收入的增长将导致对家畜和鱼类产品更大的需求 ,因而对饲料的需求也将有很大的增长     

基于层次分析法的广西再生铜产业SWOT分析

文章运用SWOT分析方法从定性角度分析广西再生铜产业在发展过程中所面临的机遇与威胁以及优势和劣势,然后运用层次分析法定量分析影响广西再生铜产业的各种内外部因素,得出:(1)在当前外部环境下广西再生铜产业发展中面临的最大机会是铜的市场需求很大,而最大的威胁是再生铜原料供应日趋紧张;(2)在当前内部环境下广西再生铜产业发展中最大的优势是地理区位优势,而最大的劣势在于技术装备水平落后。最后采用SWOT四边形的方法选择出适合广西再生铜产业发展的SO战略。     

论逆物流外包的有效运作与降低交易成本的途径

逆物流作为物流系统中一个全新的领域，引起了越来越广泛的关注。逆物流交易过程中存在资产专用性和不确定性，而合理采用外包的形式、加强供应链成员间的协作关系、有效降低固定交易成本，对降低逆物流的交易成本具有重要作用。     

我国保险资金运用风险分析

随着保险资金规模的不断扩大,其面临的投资风险也越来越大。分析结果表明,保险资金投资于国债、基础设施建设的风险相对较低;投资于银行存款的风险主要是政府运用利率手段调节宏观经济的结果;而投资于股票市场和证券投资基金的风险非常大。同时,算例分析显示,保险资金应扩大债券类资产的投资份额,慎重选择证券投资基金和股票。     

基于现金流量的企业财务风险测控探讨——以农业上市公司为例

以我国农业上市公司为研究对象,从财务风险测控出发,利用主成分分析法建立判断上市公司是否发生财务风险的预警模型--T模型,针对目前以"ST"作为财务困境企业的分界点不能准确判断出企业是否有足够的现金流量以及能否真正避免财务危机这一现状,结合各项现金类指标,可从企业现金流量的角度判断企业是否存在财务困境,能否偿还各类到期利息及债务,为企业提供一个更为准确的预测和控制财务危机的工具.     

关于工作分析中员工恐惧问题的探讨

工作分析是人力资源管理的基础工作，操作性强。实践中遇到的问题较多，员工恐惧问题尤为突出。本文将对工作分析中员工恐惧的表现形式、原因以及对工作分析的影响进行分析，并提出解决方案，供工作分析实施者参考。     

基于企业动态环境下工作分析的思考

基于企业的动态环境，本文认为动态环境对工作分析实践的影响表现在三个方面：环境变化对企业内部诸要素乃至对工作分析实践的影响；企业生命周期的变化对工作分析实践的影响：员工能力需求层次的提高对工作分析实践的影响。解决动态环境对工作分析阻滞的方法有年度分析和适时工作分析以及对二者的综合处理。