广西在CAFTA建成后的经济增长前景研究——基于斯密定理分析视角

2010年1月,中国—东盟自由贸易区如期建成。文章基于斯密定理进行分析研究,预测了中国—东盟自由贸易区建成后的市场规模,就此预测市场规模给广西经济发展带来的机遇,展望了广西经济增长前景,并就广西如何抓住中国—东盟自由贸易区市场规模扩大的历史性机遇,促进经济增长提出了一些对策建议。     

A two-stage realized volatility approach to estimation of diffusion processes with discrete data

This paper motivates and introduces a two-stage method of estimating diffusion processes based on discretely sampled observations. In the first stage we make use of the feasible central limit theory for realized volatility, as developed in [Jacod, J., 1994. Limit of random measures associated with the increments of a Brownian semiartingal. Working paper, Laboratoire de Probabilities, Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris] and [Barndorff-Nielsen, O., Shephard, N., 2002. Econometric analysis of realized volatility and its use in estimating stochastic volatility models. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B, 64, 253–280], to provide a regression model for estimating the parameters in the diffusion function. In the second stage, the in-fill likelihood function is derived by means of the Girsanov theorem and then used to estimate the parameters in the drift function. Consistency and asymptotic distribution theory for these estimates are established in various contexts. The finite sample performance of the proposed method is compared with that of the approximate maximum likelihood method of [Aït-Sahalia, Y., 2002. Maximum likelihood estimation of discretely sampled diffusion: A closed-form approximation approach. Econometrica. 70, 223–262].     

旅游节庆活动志愿者绩效管理体系设计——以南宁国际民歌艺术节为例

运用现代人力资源绩效管理的思想和方法,以南宁国际民歌艺术节为例,对旅游节庆活动志愿者的管理进行了研究。通过访谈调查和实地跟踪调查,分析民歌节志愿者工作中的绩效管理问题,构建民歌节志愿者绩效管理组织架构,在此基础上,以“片区负责人一团队负责人”层级为例,设计绩效管理体系五个环节工作内容和绩效管理指标体系。     

A. Palmström

Abstract

1. Mr R. Frisch has recently ¹ Ragnar Frisch: Sur les semi-invariants et moments employés dans l'étude des distributions statistiques, Oslo, 1926 (Det Norske VidenskabsAkademis Skrifter, II N:o 3), p. 26. established the interesting identity     

On the Sensitivity of Premiums and Reserves to Changes in Valuation Elements

Upon differentiating the Thiele differential equations and the equivalence condition with respect to some parameter appearing in the equations, one obtains differential equations for the derivatives of the state-wise reserves and the premium level with respect to the parameter. The solution to these equations measures the impact on premiums and reserves of a change in the parameter. Typically only numerical results can be obtained, but the method applies quite generally to multi-state policies and to virtually any parameter, and so represents a panacea in (the vast majority of) situations where analytical results are out of reach. Extensions to higher order derivatives and higher order conditional moments are straightforward. A difference method for computation is devised, and numerical results are reported for some practical cases.     

The effects of multilateral trading systems on risk and return in equity markets

The event study methodology of Brown and Warner (1985) is adopted and augmented to evaluate the effect of the launch of multilateral trading systems on risk and return in equity markets. The methodology is supplemented with various techniques, such as the nonparametric ranking test and kernel regression, to find out if announcements about the introduction of Chi-X Australia generated abnormal returns (ARs). Asset pricing models are fitted with interaction variables, while GARCH, threshold ARCH (TARCH), exponential GARCH (EGARCH) and power-ARCH (PARCH) are used to determine changes in systematic risk. We find evidence in favour of Fisher’s separation theorem and detect a new market anomaly, which we call the ‘Fisher market anomaly’. Our results show that Chi-X system testings affect ARs. Consistent with the adaptive expectations theory, we confirm that the first announcement about the launch of Chi-X affected systematic risk the most. In addition, we identify industry and firm effects in risk analysis.     

Limit theory for panel data models with cross sectional dependence and sequential exogeneity

The paper derives a general Central Limit Theorem (CLT) and asymptotic distributions for sample moments related to panel data models with large n$n$. The results allow for the data to be cross sectionally dependent, while at the same time allowing the regressors to be only sequentially rather than strictly exogenous. The setup is sufficiently general to accommodate situations where cross sectional dependence stems from spatial interactions and/or from the presence of common factors. The latter leads to the need for random norming. The limit theorem for sample moments is derived by showing that the moment conditions can be recast such that a martingale difference array central limit theorem can be applied. We prove such a central limit theorem by first extending results for stable convergence in Hall and Heyde (1980) to non-nested martingale arrays relevant for our applications. We illustrate our result by establishing a generalized estimation theory for GMM estimators of a fixed effect panel model without imposing i.i.d. or strict exogeneity conditions. We also discuss a class of Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimators that can be analyzed using our CLT.     

Cultural tourism in an ethnic theme park: tourists’ views

The quest for cultural exoticism has inspired mass Han Chinese visits to regions in China, such as Yunnan, where several ‘ethnic theme parks’ have been developed. Employing surveys, informal interviews, observations and secondary sources, this study explores tourists’ views of their experiences, including their perceptions of cultural authenticity at an ethnic theme park in Yunnan, China. Mixed reactions existed to the experience of park patronage, with greater satisfaction with the overall experience than with the specific qualities and authenticity of park offerings. Most tourists had a favorable view of the site and enjoyed their overall experience. Many appreciated a packaged version of minority cultures. However, some visitors were concerned about misrepresentation, insufficient interpretation, poor service, high costs and inauthentic souvenirs. Tourists’ perceptions of authenticity and their satisfaction were significantly influenced by their individual backgrounds. The study raises important issues concerning management and promotion of ethnic attractions, given that modern tourists may have diverse needs and expectations.     

No Arbitrage in Discrete Time Under Portfolio Constraints

In frictionless securities markets, the characterization of the no-arbitrage condition by the existence of equivalent martingale measures in discrete time is known as the fundamental theorem of asset pricing. In the presence of convex constraints on the trading strategies, we extend this theorem under a closedness condition and a nondegeneracy assumption. We then provide connections with the superreplication problem solved in Föllmer and Kramkov (1997).     

A general impossibility result on strategy-proof social choice hyperfunctions

A social choice hyperfunction picks a non-empty set of alternatives at each admissible preference profile over sets of alternatives. We analyze the manipulability of social choice hyperfunctions. We identify a domain D^λ of lexicographic orderings which exhibits an impossibility of the Gibbard–Satterthwaite type. Moreover, this impossibility is inherited by all well-known superdomains of D^λ. As most of the standard extension axioms induce superdomains of D^λ while social choice correspondences are particular social choice hyperfunctions, we are able to generalize many impossibility results in the literature.