基础设施投资与吸引外国直接投资关系的实证研究——基于我国经济转型期二者因果关系的检验

本文在现有国内外研究的基础上,依据我国改革开放20多年来的实际数据,针对基础设施投资与外国直接投资(FDI)之间的相关性进行了协整检验和格兰杰检验,结果发现:二者之间不仅存在协整关系,还存在单向的格兰杰因果关系,即FDI是带动基础设施投资的格兰杰原因,而基础设施投资并不是引致FDI增加的格兰杰原因。本实证检验还用事实证实了目前许多地方政府以增加基础设施投资来吸引外商投资的盲目性。     

Security: The Virtual Quest

ABSTRACT

Security and related contingency recovery plans ensure a business' survival when it is faced with potential information systems breakdowns. Its primary objective is to prevent a calamity from occurring and to limit the impact of destructive events related to computer-based information systems. Most disaster recovery plans, when put into effect, fail to serve the intended purpose. The value of a properly implemented security is to prevent external intrusions before they start, and have an internal recovery plan to restore service so that assets are not adversely affected.

This paper provides some insight regarding security as well as identifying some of the pitfalls or weakness in this part of an organization's communication network. Emerging technologies such as the use of biometrics, authentications, steganography, and data encryption used for security will be the focus of the paper.     

外资并购模式对我国上市公司治理结构影响的差异性分析

以我国沪、深两市在1999～2005年内发生外资并购的48家上市公司为样本,选取股权结构、董事会、监事会、股东大会、高管层以及信息披露六个维度共13个指标,通过因子分析法定量研究外资并购对我国上市公司治理结构的影响,发现不同并购模式下公司治理结构得到优化的比例呈现较大差异:拍卖收购模式为100%,协议收购非流通股为40.91%,二级市场收购流通股为60%,增资扩股为50%,成立合资公司为22.22%,收购母公司为40%。     

人民币升值带来的财富幻觉探讨

本文从我国现有的外汇管理制度和面临的特殊发展阶段及发展背景出发,指出人民币对外升值对内贬值将是我国现阶段和未来所面临的一种重要现象。人民币升值及其升值预期将带来我国外汇储备快速积累,在结售汇制度下发生货币倍增效应,给我国带来明显的财富效应;人民币对内贬值即通货膨胀扩大了我国GDP的规模和国际排名,也给我国带来了财富效应。本文指出人民币对外升值对内贬值带来的财富效应在一定程度上是一种财富幻觉,并对这种情况下的宏观经济政策提出了对策建议。     

The futures of offshoring FDI in high-tech sectors

This paper examines what is still a relatively new phenomenon in the literature, the outsourcing/offshoring of high-technology manufacturing and services. This has become a concern for both policy makers and academics for two reasons. Firstly, policy makers have become concerned that the offshoring of high-technology sectors in the West will follow the more labour intensive sectors, and move to lower cost locations. Secondly, international business theory has tended to view low costs, and high levels of indigenous technological development as being the two main drivers of location advantage in the attraction of FDI. We show that this may not be the case for offshored high-technology manufacturing or services.     

World Bank lending and regulation

Does World Bank lending promote deregulation with stronger incentives and critical resources or slow the process by blunting the impact of crises and indirectly promoting state control? This paper analyzes empirical links between aid flows and regulatory burden. Econometric estimates based on panel data for 83 aid receiving countries over 5 year periods from 1970 to 2000 find that World Bank lending, while not specifically targeting high or low regulatory states, is linked to lower subsequent regulation. This link holds for multilateral donors more broadly while bilateral donor funds apparently fail to influence the level of regulation.     

发展中国家对外直接投资的新趋势

文章在系统总结发展中国家对外直接投资历程的基础上,结合发展中国家FDI出现的新特点,认为发展中国家的对外直接投资除已出现学习型FDI、竞争策略型FDI以外,极少数发展中国家的跨国公司已开始进入更为高级的市场势力型FDI阶段。     

微观层面的对外直接投资与对外贸易关系研究

对外直接投资与对外贸易存在替代、互补或者互动的关系;从不同角度,会观察到对外直接投资与对外贸易不同的关系。     

中国高额外汇储备的决定机制及可持续性研究

本文通过构建理论分析框架,分析外汇储备可持续性的决定机制和影响因素,选择我国相关数据和变量,建立了VAR模型并进行实证检验,刻画各因素与外汇储备之间的相关性,分解各因素对外汇储备规模的贡献度,从而识别决定外汇储备的短期和长期因素。研究表明出口导向机制、长期利益分享机制和短期套利机制是决定外汇储备规模的三大机制。在决定我国高额外汇储备持续性的因素中,出口是直接的、短期的因素,外商直接投资和人民币汇率是长期的决定因素,而人民币利率既是长期因素又是短期因素。外汇储备规模短期内仍将保持较高的水平,但从长期看,随着我国经济增长方式的转变和套利空间的缩小,经常项目和资本金融项目的双顺差会减少,相应的外汇储备也会下降。因此,在当前的外汇储备管理中,应稳定外汇储备的来源和质量,实现保值增值目标,并充分发挥其维护金融安全的作用。     

Optimal foreign debt for Egypt: A stochastic control approach

This study assesses the foreign debt policy in Egypt and contrasts it versus the optimal policy during the period 1985–2008. It also presents a forecast of the optimal debt during the period 2009–2014. The optimal debt policy was derived using an open economy model for Egypt. The uncertainties in the model stem from the uncertainties in the interest or debt service payments and the uncertainties in the rate of return on investments. The stochastic control approach was used to find the optimal debt policy. It was found that Egypt could borrow externally as long as the trend in the rate of return on investments exceeds the trend in the real interest rate or the trend in the rate of the debt service payments. The analysis finds that Egypt's foreign debt was higher than the optimal level before 1997. After 1997, foreign debt seems to converge to the optimal level. However, Egypt's foreign debt is still below its optimal level which results in an opportunity cost for the economy to grow, otherwise, GDP could have recorded a favorable increase.