从国营到国有——国家股转让效果分析

本文系统地研究了从1997年到2000年在上海证券交易所和深圳证券交易所发生的国有资产局将控制权转让给国有独资企业和国有法人企业的案例数据。研究发现国家股控制权转让后公司业绩有了明显的改善,同时证券市场对国家股转让行为做出了积极的反应,产生了明显的超额收益。     

Corporate Restructuring in Japan Part I: Can M‐Form Organization Manage Diverse Businesses?

The purpose of this paper is to examine the recent organizational restructuring in Japan in the framework of organizational economics, assuming that the product/market portfolio of the firm is fixed. How does a firm set about organizing its internal divisions? I first summarize some stylized facts on corporate diversification strategy and multi‐divisional (M‐form) organization in large Japanese firms from different perspectives. I then analyse the problem of choosing an organizational form. In particular, I argue that, precisely because of its related diversification, the multi‐business Japanese firm adopting the M‐form finds it difficult to differentiate its diverse businesses internally.     

Evaluating the performance of the search and matching model

Does the search and matching model fit aggregate U.S. labor market data? While the model has become an important tool of macroeconomic analysis, recent literature pointed to some significant failures in accounting for the data. This paper aims to answer two questions: (i) Does the model fit the data, and, if so, on what dimensions? (ii) Does the data “fit” the model, i.e. what are the data which are relevant to be explained by the model?The analysis shows that the model fits certain specifications of the data on many dimensions, though not on all. This includes capturing the high persistence and high volatility of most of the key variables, the negative co-variation of unemployment and vacancies, and the behavior of the worker job finding rate. A key role in this fit is played by the convexity of hiring costs and the stochastic properties of the separation rate. The latter is a major component of the rate discounting the future value of the job-worker match.The paper offers a workable, empirically grounded version of the model for the analysis of aggregate U.S. labor market dynamics.     

Time variation in the cointegrating relationship between stock prices and economic activity

The present paper examines whether there exists a long‐run cointegrating relationship between a stock market index and output and interest rates. Moreover, estimation is conducted over the full sample and both a recursive and rolling sample to examine any time variation in the nature of the relationship. The results support evidence of a single cointegrating vector, where stock prices typically exhibit a positive relationship with industrial production and a negative relationship with interest rates. However, there is significant time variation and periods of time where contrary results are observed. As such any model of stock prices needs to account for such time variation     

Incorporating Collateral Value Uncertainty in Loss Given Default Estimates and Loan-to-value Ratios

We present a model of risky debt in which collateral value is correlated with the possibility of default. The model is then used to study the expected loss given default, primarily as a function of collateral. The results obtained could prove useful for estimating losses given default in many popular models of credit risk which assume them constant. We also examine the problem of determining sufficient collateral to secure a loan to a desired extent. In addition to bank practitioners, regulators might find our analysis useful in reviewing banks’ lending standards relative to current collateral values. In particular, the current proposals for The New (Basel) Capital Accord involve options for the use of banks’ own loss given default estimates which might benefit from the analysis in this paper.     

Option pricing in the presence of natural boundaries and a quadratic diffusion term

This paper uses a probabilistic change-of-numeraire technique to compute closed-form prices of European options to exchange one asset against another when the relative price of the underlying assets follows a diffusion process with natural boundaries and a quadratic diffusion coefficient. The paper shows in particular how to interpret the option price formula in terms of exercise probabilities which are calculated under the martingale measures associated with two specific numeraire portfolios. An application to the pricing of bond options and certain interest rate derivatives illustrates the main results.     

Long term dependence in stock returns

We show, using the modified rescaled range statistic, that none of the return series of indices of five European countries, the United States and Japan exhibits long term dependence. This statistic — introduced by Lo (1991) — correct Hurst's (1951) ‘classical’ rescaled range statistic for short term dependence. We also report the classical rescaled range statistic after adjusting the series for short term dependence. This procedure shows, for cases where the results of the modified rescaled range statistic are mixed, that no long term dependence can be found. Simulations indicate reasonable power of this adjustment procedure. Furthermore, we find that estimates of the Hurst exponent, a related measure of long term dependence, are also biased by short term dependence. Simulations show that this measure — that has recently attracted growing interest — cannot distinguish between models with or without long term dependence.     

Does the cost of capital differ across countries? An agency perspective*

In this keynote speech, I ask the question: Does the cost of capital differ for firms located in different countries? I argue that there are two ways to look at the cost of capital. First, there is the neoclassical perspective, which assumes that there are no agency problems. In integrated markets, the neoclassical cost of capital is the same in every country. Second, there is the agency perspective. Agency costs increase the cost of capital understood as the expected rate of return necessary for an investment to leave the value of the firm unaffected. Adjusting the cost of capital for agency costs, I argue that it differs across countries because of differences in corporate governance. I then provide a comparison of the agency-adjusted cost of capital between Japan and the US.     

Back on the balance sheet: The tax effects of contingent claims in commercial banking

Contingent claims separate revenue and cost into two different time periods. Revenue comes in the initial origination process, while the cost comes upon completion of the contract in the event of default. With banks increasing contingent claims in recent years, a higher taxable income leads to a shift in a bank's balance sheet toward tax-free income and tax-shielding liabilities. This provides a valuable case-study of corporate finance theories of tax management. This paper builds a model to illustrate the income features of contingent claims. Call Reports from 1990-1996 are examined, and show significant evidence of increases in leverage associated with contingent claims.     

In search of a residual dividend policy

We survey 309 sample firms exhibiting behavior consistent with a residual dividend policy and their matched counterparts to learn how they set their dividend policies. The findings reveal that the sample firms are more likely than their counterparts to maintain a long-term dividend payout ratio, use long-run earnings forecasts in setting the dividend, and be unconcerned about the cost of raising external funds. Yet, firms behaving as though they follow a residual dividend policy generally do not profess to follow the policy. At best, the sample firms follow a “modified” residual policy in which they carefully manage their payout ratio and dividend trend. Although it may not be an explicit goal of such a dividend policy, consistently low free cash flow typically results.