基于GDP与波浪理论的上证综指预测

我国证券市场的发展变化,可以通过指数的走势来反应．而上证综合指数的走势,短期很难判断其变化方向,让广大投资者无所适从。本文试图通过分析我国经济的发展速度．来分析GDP与股票价格的关系,以及运用波浪理论对上证综合指数进行分析和预测．力图从宏观上给广大中小投资者一个正确的判断。通过分析,到2020年,上证综合指数将达到10000点左右。这一结论指明了中国证券市场的发展方向。对广大中小投资者的投资与决策,具有十分重要的现实意义和深远的历史意义。     

M2/GDP水平的国际比较及中国畸高原因探析

M2/GDP是衡量一国经济货币化程度的重要指标,一般说来,该比率越高,经济货币化程度越高,金融业越发达.通过国际比较发现,中国不但存在M2/GDP持续上升的普遍性问题,而且这一问题相对其他主要经济国家表现得更为异常.造成中国M2/GDP畸高的原因可以归结为货币化论、货币沉淀论及货币反替代论.M2/GDP的比例越高,整体支付风险越大,若任由这种局面发展,央行的信用创造能力和银行体系的支付能力都将逐渐蚀空,因此研究如何提高我国金融配置效率、加快金融体制改革及我国现行外汇体制改革等议题,是有效解决我国M2/GDP畸高的必经之路.     

A Multiple and Partial Wavelet Analysis of the Oil Price,Inflation, Exchange Rate,and Economic Growth Nexus in Saudi Arabia

This article provides a fresh insight into the dynamic nexus between oil prices, the Saudi/US dollar exchange rate, inflation, and output growth rate in Saudi Arabia’ economy, using novel Morlet’ wavelet methods. Specifically, it implements various tools of methodology: the continuous wavelet power spectrum, the cross-wavelet power spectrum, the wavelet coherency, the multiple and the partial wavelet coherence to the annual sample period 1969–2014. Our results unveil that the relationships among the variables evolve through time and frequency. From the time-domain view, we show strong but non-homogenous linkages between the four variables. From the frequency-domain view, we uncover significant wavelet coherences and strong lead-lag relationships. From an economic view, the wavelet analysis shows that Saudi economy is still exposed to several global risk factors, which are mainly related to the oil market volatility, and the pegging of the local currency to the US dollar. Such risk factors strongly and negatively affect the real economic growth, exert more pressure on inflation, and substantially limit the freedom to pursue an independent monetary policy.     

从GDP角度反思我国股市市值的严重膨胀

股票市场具有高风险高收益的特征，即使在行情看涨的格局中，也要警惕可能存在的巨大风险。股市市值与GDP的比值是一个衡量国民经济证券化程度的有效参考指标。高位的“市值／GDP”指标是股市市值严重膨胀的一个示警信号。结合我国本轮经济周期中该指标的走势状况，我们可以重新审视我国股市所隐含的潜在风险。     

对外贸易对广西经济增长的实证研究

广西发展对外贸易对促进经济增长有重要作用,为此,应培育市场主体,提高市场经济运行质量,促进资源有效配置;转变对外贸易结构,促进产业结构升级;强调进口的作用以及充分有效地利用好国家给予的优厚政策。     

Optimal route decision with a geometric ground-airborne hybrid model under weather uncertainty

Adverse weather is the dominant cause of delays in the National Airspace System (NAS). Since the future weather condition is only predictable with a certain degree of accuracy, managing traffic in the weather-affected airspace is a challenging task. In this paper, we propose a geometric model to generate an optimal combination of ground delay and route choice to hedge against weather risk. The geometric recourse model (GRM) is a strategic Probabilistic Air Traffic Management (PATM) model that generates optimal route choice, incorporating route hedging and en-route recourse to respond to weather change: hedged routes are routes other than the nominal or the detour one, and recourse occurs when the weather restricted airspace becomes flyable and aircraft are re-routed to fly direct to the destination. Among several variations of the GRM, we focus on the hybrid Dual Recourse Model (DRM), which allows ground delay as well as route hedging and recourses, when the weather clearance time follows a uniform distribution. The formulation of the hybrid DRM involves two decision variables - ground delay and route choice - and four parameters: storm location, storm size, maximum storm duration time, and ground-airborne cost ratio. The objective function has two components: expected total ground delay cost and expected total airborne cost. We propose a solution algorithm that guarantees to find the global optimum of the hybrid-DRM. Based on the numerical analysis, we find that ground-holding is effective only when combined with the nominal route. Otherwise, it is optimal to fly on the route determined by the DRM without ground delay. We also find the formula of the threshold ground-airborne cost ratio, which we call the Critical Cost Ratio (CCR), that determines the efficacy of ground delay: the higher the CCR, the more effective the strategies involving ground delay. We conclude that both ground delay and route hedging should be considered together to produce the best ATM decisions.     

基于协整方法对贵州信息产业与GDP关系分析

协整概念是20世纪80年代由恩格尔—格兰杰(Engle—Grange)提出的,后来被众多计量经济学家发展成为协整理论。协整理论认为,尽管就单个时间序列而言是非平稳的,但是两个或多个非平稳时间序列一起漂移,这种共同漂移使得这些变量之间存在着长期的线性关系,因此说它们的某种线性组合可能是平稳的,说明这些经济变量存在长期均衡关系。协整的意义就在于它揭示了一种长期稳定的均衡关系,从理论上说,满足协整的经济变量之间不会分离太远,如果发生外在冲击,也只能使它们短时间内偏离均衡位置,在长期中他们会自动回复到均衡位置。协整理论克服了传统经济计量模型依靠差分后的数据来满足平稳性,导致长期变化趋势信息丧失的弊端,使模型同时综合了系统的短期动态波动和长期稳定均衡,为经济分析和预测提供了一种强有力的工具。     

实证分析外资、外贸对经济总量的影响

本文借助计量经济学模型,对我国1985-2007年以来的GDP、FDI及进出口数据进行相关回归分析,定性并定量地分析了FDI和进出口对于我国GDP的相关影响作用.     

2012年国家财政性教育经费支出占GDP4%的目标如何实现

温家宝总理在2010年全国教育工作会议上,阐述了中央制定《教育规划纲要》的主要考虑和确定的教育工作方针,他特别强调《教育规划纲要》提出到2012年实现教育财政性支出占GDP4%的目标。2012年国家财政性教育经费支出达到占GDP4%的时间表,意味着党和政府推动教育改革和发展的坚定决心;意味着教育经费投入总量将有一个大的增加,落实科教兴国战略、建设人力资源强国有了重要经济保障。然而,从历史经验看,它也意味着实现这个目标是一个艰巨的任务,我们还面临着许多要解决的新难题。     

热话题的冷思考:绿色GDP的由来、现状及前景探析

环保运动的深入和可持续发展理念的兴起使绿色GDP成为一个热门话题,世界各国纷纷进行实践探索,中国也有所行动。但冷静审视,绿色GDP核算体系的建立困难重重,即使建立也并不能解决中国全面、协调、可持续发展的所有问题。展望绿色GDP,它只能作为传统GDP考核框架下的“局部改良物”而存在,而中国科学发展问题的解决则依赖于对GDP考核体系的根本变革。