中国GDP与第三产业就业的动态关联分析——基于VAR模型

文章根据中国1978～2005年第三次产业就业人数和GDP的数据,通过向量自回归(VAR)模型及相应的脉冲响应函数分析了二者的动态相关性。结果表明,第三次产业就业人数对GDP有稳定影响,反向影响关系却在统计上不显著。GDP对于广义单位标准差新息的响应是将在第三期达到高峰,之后很快减弱。第三产业就业人数对此的响应是在初期最大,之后缓慢下降。中国要释放第三产业就业弹性大的潜力,应注重在第一和第二产业基础上的第三次产业的增长质量而不只是速度。     

中国地区经济增长与能源消费强度差异分析

本文假设我国西部与东部地区的能源消费强度差异是西部与东部地区人均GDP差异的函数,然后同其他回归变量一起检验这两个变量之间的关系,并通过使用面板数据计量经济学模型进行实证估计。本文的研究结论为:第一,总体而言,西部与东部地区的人均GDP差异存在收敛,随着人均GDP的收敛,西部与东部地区的能源消费强度差异也是收敛的,但收敛的速度慢于人均GDP的收敛速度。第二,不同西部省份在经济增长过程中的能源使用效率是收敛还是发散存在差异。本文的政策含义是:政府在制定区域经济发展战略时,要鼓励和引导各地区充分利用能源禀赋以及能源利用效率方面的差异进行合作,走能源节约型的可持续的区域平衡增长道路。     

新疆经济发展所处阶段的分析与判断

本文在综合分析新疆人均GDP、产业结构、就业结构等基础上,结合近现代西方经济理论和研究成果,采用上述人均总量指标和结构指标对新疆经济发展所处的阶段进行分析和判断,得出的结论为:新疆目前正处于工业化中级阶段。     

Understanding China’s official statistics

In response to the three influential doubts about government statistics, this article expounds the differences between relevant common economic statistical indicators and the national account indicators that reflect demand structure and national income distribution structure. The comparisons include the following aspects: the differences between household consumption expenditure from household survey and from expenditure-based GDP; the differences between total retail sales of consumer goods and final consumption expenditure from expenditure-based GDP; the differences between government expenditure from government fiscal statistics and government consumption expenditure from expenditure-based GDP; the differences between total investment in fixed assets from investment statistics and gross fixed capital formation from expenditure-based GDP; the differences between inventories and change in inventories from expenditure-based GDP; the differences between foreign trade balance from customs statistics and net exports of goods and services from expenditure-based GDP; and the differences between household disposable income from the household survey and from the Flow of Funds Table, etc. In addition, this article answers the questions proposed by the three doubts correspondingly.     

浅析日本汇率改革历程对我国的借鉴意义——基于对日本GDP和汇率的相关性分析

从1970年开始,日本采取了新的汇率制度,即浮动汇率制度,之后又迫于美国为首的大国压力,大幅度提升了对美元的汇率。今天,贸易持续顺差的中国也面临着同样的处境。通过分析日本实施新汇率制度后GDP和汇率水平的关系,建立回归模型并根据残差,分析汇率政策在1970年后的经验、教训和对我国的借鉴意义。     

基于产业结构的物流成本探究

文章通过引入产业物流权重的概念,对传统的物流成本衡量指标进行修正,并采用标杆管理法,客观地分析了中国和美国在2001~2010年间的物流成本差距,进而更深刻地了解中国物流管理的发展现状,具有一定的理论与实践指导意义。     

Optimal route decision with a geometric ground-airborne hybrid model under weather uncertainty

Adverse weather is the dominant cause of delays in the National Airspace System (NAS). Since the future weather condition is only predictable with a certain degree of accuracy, managing traffic in the weather-affected airspace is a challenging task. In this paper, we propose a geometric model to generate an optimal combination of ground delay and route choice to hedge against weather risk. The geometric recourse model (GRM) is a strategic Probabilistic Air Traffic Management (PATM) model that generates optimal route choice, incorporating route hedging and en-route recourse to respond to weather change: hedged routes are routes other than the nominal or the detour one, and recourse occurs when the weather restricted airspace becomes flyable and aircraft are re-routed to fly direct to the destination. Among several variations of the GRM, we focus on the hybrid Dual Recourse Model (DRM), which allows ground delay as well as route hedging and recourses, when the weather clearance time follows a uniform distribution. The formulation of the hybrid DRM involves two decision variables - ground delay and route choice - and four parameters: storm location, storm size, maximum storm duration time, and ground-airborne cost ratio. The objective function has two components: expected total ground delay cost and expected total airborne cost. We propose a solution algorithm that guarantees to find the global optimum of the hybrid-DRM. Based on the numerical analysis, we find that ground-holding is effective only when combined with the nominal route. Otherwise, it is optimal to fly on the route determined by the DRM without ground delay. We also find the formula of the threshold ground-airborne cost ratio, which we call the Critical Cost Ratio (CCR), that determines the efficacy of ground delay: the higher the CCR, the more effective the strategies involving ground delay. We conclude that both ground delay and route hedging should be considered together to produce the best ATM decisions.     

瑞士R&D经费投入分析

R&D经费投入是评价一个国家科技发展水平和科技实力的重要指标,也是衡量一个国家创新能力和水平的重要尺度。文章对瑞士R&D经费投入规模及强度(R&D/GDP)进行了深入的分析研究。     

无锡市自主创新的发展现状和问题

自主创新是实现无锡可持续发展的重要战略,也是无锡建设"国家战略与地方特色相互交融的创新型城市"的客观要求.本文介绍了无锡市自主创新发展的现状,同时也分析了目前所面临的主要问题,认为在政府科技投入、研发人员数量以及发明专利数量方面与其他城市相比还存在较大的差距.     

Changes of Thai economy since 19701 1

Within the last 30 years, the number of Thai population increased from 35 million to 62 million, the general price level went up 6 times, and Thai currency baht devaluated 2.2 times against the dollar. The industrial production increased 36 times nominally. The biggest industry of Thailand changed from agriculture to manufacture, and the total value of exports jumped by 192 times and that of imports grew by 95 times. Thai current account balance had recorded a deficit every year from 1970 to 1996. During the same period of time, however, the capital account balance had shown surplus. The inflow of foreign capital was the only stronghold of Thai economy at that time. In 1997, Thailand suddenly experienced a total change of its external environment From then on, Thai current account shifted from a deficit to a surplus and Thai capital account turned from a surplus to a deficit. The conclusion of this paper indicates that the future of Thai economy is heavily dependent on whether the amount of surplus in Thai current account could surpass the deficit in Thai capital account