Financial crisis,GDP variation and earnings management in Europe

The purpose of this study is to examine the consequences of the financial crisis on the European companies’ in conjunction with earnings management practice. It focuses on financially distressed companies that audited by a big 4 auditor during recession years. The study makes use of discretionary accruals as a proxy for earnings management and studies the influence of big 4 auditor, in order to shed more light on possible causes for shifting earnings. The findings of the study provide evidence that financially distressed companies that audited by a big 4 auditor exhibit lower discretionary accruals. The results reveal that Greek and Spanish companies reduce earnings management manipulation during recession. In contrast, Portuguese, Irish and Italian companies show mixed results. They tend to reduce earnings management practices, but there are reasons that influence managers’ behavior to increase earnings management. The findings of this study can be useful for both investors and standard setting authorities.     

基于VAR模型的M2与GDP关系实证研究

近年来,随着我国经济不断的增长,广义货币供应量也在逐年的攀上新的高峰,今年的三月份更是突破了100万亿的大关,那么研究广义货币供应量与经济发展之间的相互关系也就变得很重要。选取1998年1月份至2012年3月份中国广义货币供应量和GDP的月度数据作为样本数据,通过建立VAR模型,运用协整检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解等分析方法,对M2对于GDP发展的影响进行分析。     

The effects of economic growth on income inequality in the US

The paper analyzes the relation between growth and income inequality in the US during the post-war years (1953–2008). We show that the income of the top income groups is more sensitive to growth, defined broadly as current growth and changes in expectations of future growth, compared to the income of the lower income groups. We provide evidence that this increased sensitivity arises for two reasons: (a) the top income groups receive a large portion of their income from wealth, which is more sensitive to growth than labor income and (b) the top income groups receive a large portion of their labor income in the form of pay-for-performance (equity compensation), which is also sensitive to growth. Consequently, we conclude that growth and income inequality are positively associated.     

基于协整方法对贵州信息产业与GDP关系分析

协整概念是20世纪80年代由恩格尔—格兰杰(Engle—Grange)提出的,后来被众多计量经济学家发展成为协整理论。协整理论认为,尽管就单个时间序列而言是非平稳的,但是两个或多个非平稳时间序列一起漂移,这种共同漂移使得这些变量之间存在着长期的线性关系,因此说它们的某种线性组合可能是平稳的,说明这些经济变量存在长期均衡关系。协整的意义就在于它揭示了一种长期稳定的均衡关系,从理论上说,满足协整的经济变量之间不会分离太远,如果发生外在冲击,也只能使它们短时间内偏离均衡位置,在长期中他们会自动回复到均衡位置。协整理论克服了传统经济计量模型依靠差分后的数据来满足平稳性,导致长期变化趋势信息丧失的弊端,使模型同时综合了系统的短期动态波动和长期稳定均衡,为经济分析和预测提供了一种强有力的工具。     

基于协整方法对贵州信息产业与GDP关系分析

协整概念是20世纪80年代由恩格尔—格兰杰(Engle—Grange)提出的,后来被众多计量经济学家发展成为协整理论。协整理论认为,尽管就单个时间序列而言是非平稳的,但是两个或多个非平稳时间序列一起漂移,这种共同漂移使得这些变量之间存在着长期的线性关系,因此说它们的某种线性组合可能是平稳的,说明这些经济变量存在长期均衡关系。协整的意义就在于它揭示了一种长期稳定的均衡关系,从理论上说,满足协整的经济变量之间不会分离太远,如果发生外在冲击,也只能使它们短时间内偏离均衡位置,在长期中他们会自动回复到均衡位置。协整理论克服了传统经济计量模型依靠差分后的数据来满足平稳性,导致长期变化趋势信息丧失的弊端,使模型同时综合了系统的短期动态波动和长期稳定均衡,为经济分析和预测提供了一种强有力的工具。     

GDP nowcasting: application and constraints in a small open developing economy

Despite data limitations, an attempt is made to find out if a GDP nowcasting model can provide reliable forecasts for a small open economy. Two competing Bayesian vector autoregressive models are tested rigorously to obtain the optimal model by minimizing in-sample forecasting errors. The main finding of this study is that GDP nowcasting can produce reliable results for a small open economy despite the unavailability of sufficient data sets and the lack of high frequency indicators.     

Does high‐speed rail connection really promote local economy? Evidence from China’s Yangtze River Delta

High‐speed rail (HSR) has led to a transportation revolution in China. This paper uses the county‐level panel data of China’s Yangtze River Delta to investigate the effect of HSR connection on local economy. To address the issue of endogenous HSR route placement, we use a straight‐line strategy to construct potential HSR connection variables as instrumental variables of the actual HSR connection. Both the difference‐in‐differences and instrumental variable methods show that HSR connection impedes local economy, especially in peripheral regions. The impediment effect is channeled through population reallocation from peripheral to core areas and the restructuring of industries.     

NOMINAL GDP TARGETING AND CENTRAL BANK CONSERVATIVENESS

In the literature on monetary economics, there is the ‘inflationary bias’ result which predicts that the rate of inflation will be biased towards a higher level under discretionary monetary policy than under a rule‐based policy regime. It is established that a credible nominal target can eliminate this ‘inflationary bias’. In this paper, we examine the case of nominal GDP targeting, which is a rule‐based monetary regime. Depending on the degree of conservativeness by the central bank, we show in a stylized model the choice of different combination of inflation and real GDP targets can still result in an ‘inflationary bias’, and there also exists the possibility of a ‘dis‐inflationary bias’.     

How much can we trust China’s investment statistics?

Abstract

Building upon recent research into the underestimation of China’s official final consumption expenditure, this paper investigates the quality of China’s investment data. We strictly follow the official method to estimate the annual gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) expenditure from 2004 to 2012, and the resulting figures are significantly different from the official statistics. This implies that the ‘total investment in fixed assets’ data, which are the primary source for the estimation of GFCF, grossly exaggerate actual investments, and that the official GFCF figures are not, strictly speaking, independently estimated, as they are purported to be. We deduce that the official gross capital formation figure is more or less a residual item obtained by subtracting final consumption and net exports from the official GDP figure that is calculated based on the production-cum-income approach. As a result, the underestimation of China’s consumption expenditure automatically translates into overestimation of investment expenditure. We conclude that China’s official consumption and investment statistics cannot be trusted as the basis for policy discussions and academic research.     

High-frequency credit spread information and macroeconomic forecast revision

We examine whether professional forecasters incorporate high-frequency information about credit conditions when revising their economic forecasts. Using a mixed data sampling regression approach, we find that daily credit spreads have significant predictive ability for monthly forecast revisions of output growth, at both the aggregate and individual forecast levels. The relationships are shown to be notably strong during ‘bad’ economic conditions, which suggests that forecasters anticipate more pronounced effects of credit tightening during economic downturns, indicating an amplification effect of financial developments on macroeconomic aggregates. The forecasts do not incorporate all financial information received in equal measures, implying the presence of information rigidities in the incorporation of credit spread information.