中柬双边经贸合作对柬埔寨国内经济增长效应的实证研究

1993年,柬埔寨组建新政府,实施自由市场经济体制改革和对外开放政策。20年来,中柬双边经贸合作取得了令人瞩目的成效。实证研究表明,1994~2012年,中国对柬埔寨的贸易、投资、援助不同程度地推动了柬埔寨国内经济的高速增长,其中,柬埔寨自中国进口贸易经济效应最为显著,援助次之,投资相对较低,柬埔寨对中国出口贸易最低。     

城乡建设用地增减挂钩背景下农民被上楼问题分析

一项旨在以城带乡、以工促农、有利于土地集约利用的城乡建设用地增减挂钩政策,在实施过程中却演变成了一场“农民被上楼”运动,并引发了一系列问题。本文从该政策实施的背景、动因入手,对政策实施所引起的一系列问题进行探讨,阐述在当前加速城镇化背景下农民被上楼的根本原因及严重后果,并在此基础上对城乡建设用地增减挂钩政策提出建议。     

Government Social Spending and GDP: has there been a change in social policy?

Government Social Spending (GSS) is made up of a very heterogeneous range of variables, monetary transfers for retirement or illness, unemployment benefits, family services, active labour market policies and health expenditure. We believe that each of these components is of enormous importance to the economic development of a country. As has often been affirmed, however, GSS is one of the economic aggregates most sensitive to the ups and downs of economic growth. In moments of crisis, sharp cuts are almost immediate, and these may or may not be recovered when times are good. In this article, we examine the sensitivity of GSS to the evolution of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in order to reveal the relationship between the two.     

A Note on Impacts of International Trade on Economic Growth and Inflation

Results of this study indicate that short- and long-term effects of international trade on inflation, GDP, and inflation-adjusted GDP growth vary over periods with fixed or freely floating exchange rates or a big accumulated trade deficit. Causalities between trade and other macroeconomic variables are also different in different periods.

This study does not find supportive evidence that “phantom GDP gains” may significantly change impacts of imports on productivity, CPI, and inflation-adjusted GDP and causalities between imports and other macroeconomic variables, although a structural break is found in the relationship between imports and GDP at the beginning of 2003.     

The Dynamic Links Between Exports,Foreign Direct Investment,and Economic Growth: Evidence from European Transition Economies

ABSTRACT

By applying time series and panel data cointegration analysis, this study investigates the causal relations between exports, inward FDI and GDP for fifteen European transition economies over the period 1995–2014. This study goes beyond previous empirical works by using two auxiliary variables in the aforementioned nexus: domestic investment and government spending. Empirical findings suggest that though the effect of openness is beneficial to all economies of the region, the presence of export-led growth and FDI-led growth hypotheses are validated mainly for the group of economies that entered the European Union in 2004. Conversely, for the remaining economies, the results confirm the prevalence of a culture for saving over spending, which eventually provokes the beneficial expansion of their local investment and export capacity.     

政府决策依据的转变:从GDP到GNH

政府做出的任何决策都应以最广大人民利益为出发点和落脚点。在以科学发展观为统领,建设社会主义和谐社会的今天,国民幸福指数开始进入决策者的视野,为政府作出科学合理的决策提供更为全面的依据。本文从影响国民幸福指数的因素分析入手,认为政府在决策时,经济发展和民生应成为最为关键的问题。     

Swedish Harvests, 1665–1820: Early Modern Growth in the Periphery of European Economy

Abstract

Today, one of the greatest challenges facing macroeconomic history is to quantify economic growth in the early modern period. This article presents and discusses a series of total and per capita harvest production in Sweden within present borders for the period 1665–1820. The series is based on three main indices: grain prices, subjective harvest assessments and tithes. Various sources of harvests are more reliable as indicators of relative changes than of absolute levels. For example, tithes probably only taxed between 15 and 60 per cent of the actual harvests, but seem to capture annual harvest fluctuations reasonably well. To estimate the absolute level of per capita harvests, the index of the per capita harvest production is linked to data for the early nineteenth century, which are more reliable. The article argues that harvests stagnated during the studied period, which is in line with several other studies for various European countries. The annual fluctuations were substantial.     

陕西省GDP的预测方法比较与选择

以陕西省1993年至2010年不变价格的GDP为样本,分别应用了二次函数模型、指数函数模型和自回归整合移动平均模型对原数列进行了拟合、分析与预测。经过比较,三者的误差依次为17.948 3%,8.752 9%,3.389 0e-06。自回归整合移动平均模型与原序列高度拟合,误差几乎为零,因此不需要组合预测。     

中美贸易摩擦对我国海洋渔业的影响及对策研究

中美贸易摩擦已经涉及我国海产品及海洋渔业产业,其中我国对原产于美国的海产品加征关税已经实施,美国已发布对我国加征 10%关税的海产品清单。研究发现,中美互为重要且较稳定的海产品贸易伙伴国,中美贸易摩擦对我国海产品生产、进出口、消费产生负面影响,主要包括推动海产养殖成本上升、导致美国自中国进出口份额下降近一半、引起海产品价格上涨等问题。提出了扩大国内国际市场、推进海洋渔业产业转型升级和加大海产品加工企业财税扶持力度等应对建议。     

Assessing the importance of international tourism for the Turkish economy: A social accounting matrix analysis

The international tourism sector has grown rapidly in Turkey since the 1980s and Turkey ranks among the top ten countries in terms of tourist arrivals and receipts. Previous studies on international tourism in Turkey are partial equilibrium studies which emphasized the importance of the sector for foreign exchange earnings, employment creation, and economic growth. The social accounting matrix (SAM) modeling approach is superior to partial equilibrium analysis as it takes into account intersectoral linkages. This paper analyzes the contribution of international tourism to the Turkish economy using two SAMs for 1996 and 2002, respectively. Two analyses are conducted using the SAM impact model: (i) sectoral comparison of GDP elasticities, and (ii) SAM impact analysis of international tourism on output, value-added, and employment. The results show that the GDP elasticity of international tourism is relatively low and the impact of foreign tourist expenditures on domestic production, value-added (GDP), and employment in Turkey are modest. The results imply the possibility of leakage of foreign tourist expenditures out of the economy.