Paired comparison models with age effects modeled as piecewise quadratic splines

We propose new models for analyzing pairwise comparison data, such as that relating to sports. We focus on changes in players’ strengths and the prediction of future results. Our models are based on the Thurstone-Mosteller and Bradley–Terry models, and make use of the time variation in the parameters. Furthermore, we apply our models to data from the Japanese traditional sport sumo, and analyze this data. The proposed models perform better than the standard Thurstone-Mosteller and Bradley–Terry models according to both the Akaike information criterion and the Brier score. We compare the proposed models in detail by focusing on individual sumo wrestlers.     

The relationship between people's activities and values with the protection level and biodiversity

We investigated how people's recreational activities, values, and land use preferences are related to the protection level, biodiversity and cultural heritage values of nature-based tourism areas in northern Finland. We assessed peoples' opinions using a public participation geographic information system (PPGIS) and analyzed the data together with spatial biodiversity and cultural heritage data from the same area. Associations between the PPGIS place markings with the protection level and biodiversity values were quite low, and for the cultural heritage sites they were altogether missing. Negative preferences were often marked in areas with high numbers of sites rated as pleasant and they overlapped with each other, indicating conflicting preferences. Since most activities are not noticeably related to the protection level or biodiversity values of a site they can be planned so as to protect the biodiversity of the area.     

基于GIS的边坡三维极限平衡模型研究

自然界中发生的滑坡绝大多数呈三维形态,边坡稳定性分析应从三维的角度进行处理。在实际边坡工程作业中,科学地计算边坡受到边界条件约束、荷载作用、土体性质在空间上变异等实际形态的影响,同样需要进行三维稳定性分析。目前边坡稳定性分析仍以二维极限平衡法为主。当滑动面已经确定时,使用三维分析可以恰当地考虑滑坡的三维形态对安全系数的影响,同时可以避免二维分析时如何选择代表性横截面,计算结果是否合理等问题。     

Service-Oriented Computing for intelligent train maintenance

The purpose of this work is to apply the servicization of enterprise information systems in maintenance, particularly in the management of the maintenance process of the component parts of trains. Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) is an architectural approach that permits servicization since it provides a flexible set of design principles used during the modeling practices (abstraction and realization). With a view to supporting the model-driven engineering of software systems, Mode Driven Architecture (MDA) is a design approach delivering a set of guidelines for the configuring of specifications in systems development. Therefore, the combination of these two approaches can be fruitful to address the challenging issues the enterprise information system is facing today. Our study is based on a methodological approach using the MDA models for the automatic generation of web service. The case study concerns a Railways Maintenance Workshop (RMW) at Sidi Bel Abbes (Algeria). Finally, the information system for the management of maintenance of the component parts of passengers and baggage railcars, using the generated solution, is realized and deployed. This software helps to have better management of the RMW by the effective planning of interventions, improve performance by increasing reliability, traceability, and availability of the equipment (parts).     

Pairs trading strategies in a cointegration framework: back-tested on CFD and optimized by profit factor

Statistical arbitrage is based on pairs trading of mean-reverting returns. We used cointegration approach and ECM-DCC-GARCH to construct 98 pairs of 152 stocks of 3 currencies. Stocks trading is done by Contract for Difference (CFD), a financial derivative product which facilitates short selling and provides a leverage up to 25 times. To measure the performance of a leveraged strategy, we introduced the profit factor which is the annualized return rate per unit risk. And the historical risk is measured by maximum drawdown. We compared three main strategies: percentage, standard deviation of cointegration long-term residuals and Bollinger Bands (dynamic standard deviation), with and without double confirmation of short-term standard deviation modelled by ECM-DCC-GARCH. Each of the three main strategies is optimized by two optimizers: absolute profit and profit factor. The optimization period goes from 2012–01-01 to 2014–12-31, and validation period is from 2015–01-01 to 2016–06-01. Our results showed that the USD Bollinger Bands strategy without double confirmation and optimized by profit factor, outperformed other strategies and provided the highest annualized return rate per unit risk; 32% of our sample pairs ended up in loss, and 94% of which are explained by a cointegration break during the testing period.     

基于GIS技术的智慧校园方案设计研究

为改善高校的教育环境,提高高校的综合管理水平,本文提出了高校智慧校园系统的功能设计方案,然后基于可实现性原则,按照使用要素和使用对象两种分类标准将系统功能模块中的具体功能进行了细化设计,最后对智慧校园系统的具体建设过程提出了方案设计,对于更好的实现智慧校园的功能,有着很大的促进作用。     

GPS、GIS在车辆管理中的应用

近年来,随着我国交通事业的发展,车辆的数量在不断地增加。车辆的增加在增加路面交通压力的同时也给车辆的管理带来了困难。传统的车辆管理方式已不适用于当今社会,必须借助于全新的科学技术来为车辆管理提供新的手段。GPS、GIS的综合运用很好地解决了这一问题:GPS为车辆进行精确的定位,而GIS则为车辆的各种信息进行搜集整理。二者的结合,有效地解决了车辆管理中遇到的数量大、流动性强的难题,极大地提高了车辆管理的效率与安全,具有很高的工程应用价值。     

Japan's FDI drivers in a time of financial uncertainty. New evidence based on Bayesian Model Averaging

In this paper we analyse the determinants of Japanese outward FDI stock for the period 1996–2017. This period is especially relevant as it covers a process of increasing economic globalization and two financial crises. To this aim, we consider a large set of candidate variables based on the theory as well as on previous empirical analysis. Our sample includes a total of 27 host countries. We select the covariates using a data-driven methodology, the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) analysis. Moreover, we also analyse whether these determinants change depending on the degree of development (emerging vs developed) or the geographical areas (EU vs East Asia) of the countries considered. We find that Japan's FDI can be explained by a wide variety of variables, that include not only the typical gravitational ones but also institutional and macroeconomic variables, including those that measure financial development. Moreover, Japanese FDI can be explained by both horizontal and vertical FDI motives in the groups of countries analysed. However, in developed, and more precisely, EU countries, horizontal FDI strategies are predominant, whereas for East Asian and emerging countries, there is more evidence in favour of vertical FDI.     

创业企业何以提高创新绩效——基于创业学习与商业模式创新协同联动视角的QCA方法

以150个创业企业为样本，基于创业学习和商业模式创新理论，运用模糊集定性比较分析方法（fsQCA），探究经验学习、认知学习、新颖型商业模式创新和效率型商业模式创新对创新绩效的影响路径及机制。研究发现，存在新颖型商业模式创新等4条创新绩效产出关键路径；相较于效率型商业模式创新，新颖型商业模式创新在关键路径中更容易提高创新绩效；利用QCA方法证实了影响创业企业创新绩效的组态内部各要素之间的替代性。结论丰富了创新绩效产出内部机制，可为创业企业提高创新绩效提供指导和借鉴。     

锚企业与科技新城共生模式研究:以阿里巴巴和杭州未来科技城为例

以阿里巴巴和杭州未来科技城为例，采用Logistic模型探讨锚企业与科技新城共生模式，结果表明：总体而言，阿里巴巴和未来科技城属于互利共生模式，阿里巴巴成长会促进未来科技城发展，而未来科技城发展也会反哺阿里巴巴的成长。2013-2016年两者共生系数之间的差值不断缩小，表明阿里巴巴和杭州未来科技城的共生模式从偏利共生转向互利共生。