Correction to: Optimal and robust combination of forecasts via constrained optimization and shrinkage

We provide a correction to Proposition 1 in Optimal and robust combination of forecasts via constrained optimization and shrinkage, published in the International Journal of Forecasting 38(1):97-116 (2021). This correction has no impact on any other result (neither theoretical nor empirical) provided in the above paper.     

Information Contents in Japanese OTC Drug Advertising from Elaboration Likelihood Model Perspective: Content Analysis of TV Commercials and OTC Drug Websites

Based on the Elaboration Likelihood Model, the current study investigates information types that are cross-promoted in Japanese pharmaceutical advertising. The results from a quantitative content analysis of OTC drug brands' TV commercials broadcasted in Japan between 2014 and 2015 and their corresponding product websites (n = 150) show that Japanese OTC drug promotions feature more informational cues in the latter; cues such as price, safety, quality, components, and guarantees/warranties are particularly prominent. Furthermore, product websites tend to focus more on rational appeals, whereas TV commercials emphasize emotional appeals. No difference is found between these media types regarding celebrity and noncelebrity endorser usage.     

城镇就业市场上劳动力工资扭曲程度测度

本文利用CHIPS2007数据库，基于随机前沿模型对我国城镇就业市场上劳动力的工资扭曲程度进行测度。研究结果表明：（1）在城镇就业市场上，由于工资扭曲现象的存在，劳动力实际获得的工资要比他们的边际生产率低45％～60％；（2）已婚、子女个数较少、本地、拥有失业保险、男性、大中型企业的劳动力工资扭曲程度要低于未婚、子女个数较多、外来、没有失业保险、女性、小型企业的劳动力；（3）中低工资水平的劳动力工资扭曲程度要比高工资水平的劳动力严重，且中低工资水平劳动力工资扭曲程度的方差更大。由此，本文提出推进就业市场的市场化改革，完善就业市场信息网络，从而减轻劳动力工资扭曲程度。     

Assessment of land use compatibility and noise pollution at Imam Khomeini International Airport

This study aimed to investigate land use planning around airports, by employing Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic Information Systems (GIS), in conjunction with an optimization algorithm using an Integrated Noise Model (INM) software, to establish the potential effects of aircraft noise at Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKIA) in Tehran. We also checked for land use compatibility with the noise levels around IKIA and the residents' reaction to the noise. The research was carried out in three stages: a) the establishment of Strategic Noise Map (SNM) scenarios of the airport operation in the years 2011, 2020 and 2030 using the INM software; b) the assessment of the results with emphasis on the study area land uses and application of RS and GIS and the exposure of residents at different levels of environmental noise; and c) the assessment of the intensity of aircraft noise annoyance at various times of day and night. The results indicated that developing IKIA together with the residential development will increase airport noise. Hence proper management and control of noise at IKIA is essential.     

Decision-making in incomplete markets with ambiguity—a case study of a gas field acquisition

We apply utility indifference pricing to solve a contingent claim problem, valuing a connected pair of gas fields where the underlying process is not standard Geometric Brownian Motion and the assumption of complete markets is not fulfilled. First, empirical data are often characterized by time-varying volatility and fat tails; therefore, we use Gaussian generalized autoregressive score (GAS) and GARCH models, extending them to Student’s t-GARCH and t-GAS. Second, an important risk (reservoir size) is not hedgeable. As a result, markets are incomplete which makes preference free pricing impossible and thus standard option pricing methodology inapplicable. Therefore, we parametrize the investor’s risk preference and use utility indifference pricing techniques. We use Least Squares Monte Carlo simulations as a dimension reduction technique in solving the resulting stochastic dynamic programming problems. Moreover, an investor often only has an approximate idea of the true probabilistic model underlying variables, making model ambiguity a relevant problem. We show empirically how model ambiguity affects project values, and importantly, how option values change as model ambiguity gets resolved in later phases of the projects. We show that traditional valuation approaches will consistently underestimate the value of project flexibility and in general lead to overly conservative investment decisions in the presence of time-dependent stochastic structures.     

What about people in cycle network planning? applying participative multicriteria GIS analysis in the case of the Athens metropolitan cycle network

The bicycle is gaining ground as an inexpensive, fast, healthy, and enjoyable mode of transport, but the development of cycle infrastructures appears to be a necessary prerequisite for supporting further growth in cycling rates. Thus far, few studies have developed comprehensive methodologies for the prioritisation of cycling infrastructure investments, and the role of end users has been underestimated in this process. The unique relationship that cyclists develop with the bicycle itself, their co-cyclists, bicycle facilities, and the urban environment as a result of sensory, kinaesthetic, symbolic, or even political reasons can assist in designing cycle facilities that are more efficient and closer to fulfilling the needs and desires of users. We propose a comprehensive four-step methodology for cycle network planning, which both accounts for the city structure and the zones in which higher cycling demand is possible and uses participative multicriteria GIS processes to incorporate cyclists’ views with regard to choosing the cycle network segments. Our case study is Athens, Greece, where cycling facilities are few and heavily fragmented, although cycling demand has recently grown. This methodology may be useful for cities attempting to introduce and prioritise cycling infrastructures because it focuses on determining where cyclists would prefer to cycle to make such investments more successful in attracting users.     

Incorporating activity space and trip chaining into facility siting for accessibility maximization

Location models have been widely used to support locational decisions for various service provision. One common objective of location models has been to ensure maximal accessibility of sited facilities to demand populations. Accessibility evaluation in location models often assumes that trips originate from fixed locations (usually home) and are single purpose. These assumptions contradict the empirical evidence that suggests trips also commonly originate from non-home locations and may involve multiple stops. In this study, a new multi-objective location model is developed that extents the classic p-median problem (PMP) to account for a more realistic assessment of accessibility. Based on the individual accessibility assessment, notions of trip chaining and activity space are incorporated into the model development. In addition to fixed home locations, stops along chained trips are allowed for potential service site visits, and activity space is introduced as an additional dimension to evaluate accessibility of alternative opportunities. The effectiveness of the new model is demonstrated using an application in Tucson, AZ.     

基于GIS的工商管理信息系统的设计与实现

由于我国的工商管理涉及的地域较为广泛,而且业务流程极其复杂繁琐,尤其是基层工商管理部门,面对的营业户口不仅数量巨大,而且区域也十分广泛。所以,这就对我国的工商管理信息系统提出了较高的要求,需要为工商管理部门提供完善而科学的管理。因此,可以通过GIS来进行电子信息管理。文中就如何设计出基于GIS的工商管理信息系统进行了讨论。     

Understanding tourists' itineraries in emerging rural tourism regions: the application of paper-based itinerary mapping methodology to a wine tourism region in Michigan

In recent years, many rural areas have turned to tourism as a way of reviving their communities. One challenge to such efforts is that community leaders in these areas often have limited experience with tourism and consequently lack the knowledge and resources to best facilitate sustainable tourism initiatives. Moreover, an influx of tourists to an area puts new demands on infrastructure. Information about tourists' itineraries can help communities to address new challenges that result from tourism, however using emerging technologies such as GPS and Internet-based map surveys can be expensive and require expertise many rural tourism planners do not have. Paper-based itinerary mapping methodology can be a cost effective way of providing local officials, tourism planners, and businesses with important information to inform decisions about how to invest limited resources. This study applies paper-based itinerary mapping to an emerging wine tourism area in a rural county in the US state of Michigan. Because it involves tourists travelling from place to place within a region, wine tourism is particularly well-suited for itinerary mapping. Results provide specific recommendations to local officials, tourism planners, and businesses. Moreover, the study offers an example to researchers interested in conducting studies that use paper-based itinerary mapping methodology.