风险资产配置与货币政策规则——黏性价格均衡下的宏观资产配置模型初探

本文将一个基于动态新凯恩斯理论的连续时间黏性价格一般均衡模型与随机动态资产配置模型相结合,进而研究基于内生宏观经济动态和货币政策规则进行资产配置的问题。在最优配置策略下,投资者相对风险偏好随无风险名义利率的增大而单调减小,而随通胀率的变化呈“U”型,说明投资者在通胀偏离稳态幅度较大时配置风险资产的相对意愿较高。此外,本文也给出了使用该模型讨论投资者最大化跨期效用对经济反作用这一宏观审慎问题的方式。     

Rater Rating‐Level Bias and Accuracy in Performance Appraisals: The Impact OF Rater Personality,Performance Management Competence,and Rater Accountability

We studied the problem of rating‐level bias and rating accuracy among retail managers of a Fortune 500 retailer. Hypotheses were tested regarding the relationship among managers’ Five‐Factor Model (FFM) personality characteristics, their competence in performance management, and their levels of bias and accuracy in appraisals made in situations differing on levels of rater accountability. Associate store managers (N = 125) rated subordinates, peers and managers under conditions of high and low rater accountability. We found support for the stability of rating‐level bias across rating situations. Raters’ levels of agreeableness and assertiveness were related to mean rating levels across situations, and U‐shaped relationships were found in predicting one measure of rating accuracy such that high and low levels of these two traits were related to greater rating inaccuracy. Conscientiousness scores were significantly (and negatively) correlated with highly accountable mean ratings of subordinates. Performance management competence was related to rating‐level bias in both high‐ and low‐accountability conditions and contributed incremental validity in the prediction of rating level and rating accuracy. Our results indicate that the most lenient raters are more agreeable, less assertive, and less competent in performance management. These raters may also be less accurate. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

WEIGHTED‐AVERAGE LEAST SQUARES (WALS): A SURVEY

Model averaging has become a popular method of estimation, following increasing evidence that model selection and estimation should be treated as one joint procedure. Weighted‐average least squares (WALS) is a recent model‐average approach, which takes an intermediate position between frequentist and Bayesian methods, allows a credible treatment of ignorance, and is extremely fast to compute. We review the theory of WALS and discuss extensions and applications.     

国际原油价格对我国新能源行业股票价格的波动溢出效应研究

在大气污染日益严峻的情况下,新能源行业受政府大力支持和投资者青睐。新能源与原油一定程度上互为替代品,理论上国际原油价格必然对我国新能源行业股票价格有显著的波动溢出效应,但有些学者却持反对态度,认为我国股票市场对外还没有完全开放,新能源行业发展又很不成熟,所以该溢出效应很难显著。文章运用VAR- Asymmetric- BEKK模型进行比较研究得出：在未去除我国整体股市行情因素时,国际原油价格波动对我国新能源行业股票价格波动溢出效应不显著;而在去除我国整体股行情因素时,国际原油价格波动对我国新能源行业股票价格波动溢出效应在1%显著性水平下显著。表明存在从国际原油价格向我国新能源行业股票价格的波动溢出效应,只是该溢出效应被我国股市总体行情掩盖了。     

Economic impact of hypoglycemia among insulin-treated patients with diabetes

Objective: The objective of this study was to assess the cost of hypoglycemic events among insulin-treated patients with diabetes and the potential cost savings to a hypothetical US health plan and employer of reducing hypoglycemic events with a device intervention.

Methods: A cost-calculator model was developed to estimate the direct costs of hypoglycemic events, accounting for diabetes type, age, and event severity. Model inputs were derived from published incidence rates of hypoglycemic events and direct medical costs. Assumed intervention efficacy was based on published studies of an emerging technology which yielded 72.2% (LGS Trial; ACTRN12610000024044) and 31.8% (ASPIRE Trial; NCT01497938) reductions in severe and non-severe hypoglycemic events, respectively. Model outcomes—including the number of severe (requiring medical assistance) and non-severe events, and direct/indirect medical costs (excluding intervention costs)—were evaluated over a 1-year period for a hypothetical health plan and employer perspectives.

Results: In a health plan with 10 million enrollees, patients without the intervention would have experienced 0.09 and 14.60 severe and non-severe hypoglycemic events per patient per year (PPPY), respectively (vs 0.02 severe and 9.96 non-severe events with the intervention). This translated into total direct medical cost savings of $45 million ($177 PPPY) for the health plan. For an employer with 100,000 employees, the intervention would have yielded additional savings of $492 PPPY in indirect costs.

Conclusion: Insulin-treated patients experience hypoglycemic events, which are associated with substantial direct and indirect medical costs. The cost savings of reducing hypoglycemic events need to be weighed against the costs of using diabetes device interventions.     

基于GIS和RS的上海市近海岸生态系统服务价值评估

以2010年上海市遥感影像数据为主要数据源,利用GIS和RS技术,获取上海市近海岸土地利用类型空间分布信息。基于供给、 调节、 支持和文化服务四种生态系统服务类型,确立上海市近海岸生态系统服务体系;采用气候生产力修订单位生态服务价值当量因子的经济价值,从而评估上海市近海岸生态系统服务价值。研究表明：2010年上海市近海岸生态系统服务价值总量为373.32亿元,其中湿地的生态系统服务价值最高。从服务功能角度出发,调节服务功能的生态系统服务价值最高,占总量83.22%。     

基于SWMM的沿海城市排水管网计算研究

排水管网是重要的市政基础设施,对城市防洪排涝起着重要作用。针对某城市沿海地区,采用公式法进行管段水力参数计算。为了分析管网实际排水能力,采用暴雨管理模型(SWMM)建立数学模型,完成了概化管网,划分汇水区,确定参数;利用芝加哥降雨合成线,进行了不同雨情条件下降雨模拟。研究结果对排水管网优化设计等方面具有指导意义。     

Behavioral intention of visitors to an Oriental medicine festival: An extended model of goal directed behavior

Despite the importance of Oriental medicine festivals to Oriental medical tourism, little research has been conducted to understand the behavioral intention of visitors to these festivals. Therefore, this study examines the behavioral intention of visitors to a Korean Oriental medicine festival. This study employs the extended model of goal-directed behavior (EMGB) that incorporates two constructs related to Oriental medicine festivals: the Oriental medicine image of festival site (image) and the perception of Oriental medicine (perception). An on-site survey was conducted with 423 visitors attending the Sancheong Herbal Festival in South Korea. Results reveal that attitude, subjective norm, and positive anticipated emotion influenced visitors' desire to attend the festival, which, in turn, influenced their behavioral intentions. Two constructs of image and perception formed positive and significant relationships with attitude toward attending the festival. Practical implications of the study results are discussed.     

Urban parks: Visitors’ perceptions versus spatial indicators

Urban green spaces and their role in the quality of life of residents have been studied across multiple disciplines, based on empirical measurements or qualitative studies – however, the relation, and its strength, between spatial indicators of urban green spaces and visitors’ perceptions of green spaces are less known. Addressing this knowledge deficit, the present research uses a Geographical Information System (GIS) to link subjective evaluations of the physical environment and objective spatial indicators, to examine the correlation between the perceived and objective characteristics of five urban parks in the city of Szeged, Hungary. A questionnaire survey was used to collect residents’ subjective perceptions of the parks, while objective – which is to say measurable and mappable – spatially explicit indicators of the respective green spaces were calculated using GIS. The subjective evaluations of the parks were matched to the objective indicators using a multiple regression analysis. The statistical analysis yielded two moderate and two minor correlations between the human perceptions of the investigated green spaces and the nine objective environmental indicators examined. These results showed that subjective evaluations and objective data reveal different aspects of the same reality. Therefore, the recommendations from this study are to collectively use human perceptions and objective environmental indicators, both of which are fundamental for adequately capturing the role of urban green spaces in quality of life.     

基于Web GIS和VR技术的数字旅游系统研究

进入21世纪,旅游的信息化建设是旅游产业发展的内在需求和发展方向。数字旅游系统是把各种有关旅游的信息整合并发布到网上,给旅游的供需双方提供及时的、全面的旅游信息的一个系统。文章通过对Web GIS和VR技术进行研究,建立了数字旅游系统的理论和模型,探讨了将两者结合协助游客制定旅游路线,同时利用其技术的易结合性为游客提供全方位的个性旅游信息,设计出一套既能为游客服务,又能为旅游管理部门提供信息技术支持的数字旅游系统。