The Post-entry Performance of Cohorts of Export Starters in German Manufacturing Industries☆

This paper investigates four cohorts of firms from German manufacturing industries that started to export between 1998 and 2002, and follows them for five years after the start. Export starters are a rare species and small in Germany. Around 30–40% of those starters studied became continuous exporters. The share of total exports contributed by export starters of a cohort is tiny in the start year, and it remains so over the years that follow. Contrary to the market selection hypothesis, there is no evidence that productivity in the start year is systematically related to survival in the export market. There is no evidence of a negative impact of a smaller firm size in the start year on the chance of surviving in the export market. Starting with a higher share of exports in total sales, however, tends to increase the probability of continuing to export.     

Putting ‘merchants of debt’ in their place: the political economy of retail banking and credit-based financialisation in Germany

Why did household debt in Germany not increase after the year 2000? This article offers a supply-side explanation for this deviant debt trajectory by tracing the historical evolution of retail banking in the German political economy. It argues that at the end of the 1990s and in the light of European Monetary Union, profitability issues and banking fragmentation became severe enough to interrupt the path towards credit-based financialisation as prevalent among other capitalist economies. These factors interacted with a traditional lack of tools and incentives for rapid credit expansion, even though they were renegotiated in the processes of financial liberalisation, internationalisation and innovation. By employing historical-qualitative as well as statistical evidence for the argument, the paper’s contribution becomes twofold. First, it introduces and conceptualises retail banking as a focal point in the analysis of national financial systems and their transformation. Second, it complicates the standard accounts of German non-financialisation and reveals the ‘contested’ character of financial reform.     

A Link Between Workers' Remittances and Business Cycles in Germany and Turkey

This paper examines the cyclical interactions between the remittances of Turkish workers in Germany and output in both Turkey and Germany. Our analysis introduces a new data set covering 1962 to 2004, never used before in the research literature and considered to be a more reliable source than the data sets used in other studies. By dividing the original sample into recruitment, family reunification, and naturalization periods, we show that the duration of migrants' stay in the host country affects the direction and strength of the relation between remittances and the host and home countries' business cycles.     

Determinants of transport mode choice: a comparison of Germany and the USA

Germany and the USA have among the highest motorization rates in the world. Yet Germans make a four times higher share of trips by foot, bike, and public transport and drive for a 25% lower share of trips as Americans. Using two comparable national travel surveys this paper empirically investigates determinants of transport mode choice in Germany and the USA.In both countries higher population density, a greater mix of land-uses, household proximity to public transport, and fewer cars per household are associated with a lower share of trips by automobile. However, considerable differences remain: all groups of society in America are more car-dependent than Germans. Even controlling for dissimilarities in socio-economic factors and land-use, Germans are more likely to walk, cycle, and use public transport. Moreover, Americans living in dense, mixed-use areas, and close to public transport are more likely to drive than Germans living in lower density areas, with more limited mix of land-uses, and farther from public transport. Differences in transport policy that make car travel slower, more expensive, less convenient, and alternatives to the automobile more attractive in Germany may help account for the remaining differences.     

Financial statement effects of adopting international accounting standards: the case of Germany

Using a sample of German firms, we investigate the financial statement effects of adopting International Accounting Standards (IAS) during 1998 through 2002. We find that total assets and book value of equity, as well as variability of book value and income, are significantly higher under IAS than under German GAAP (HGB). In addition, book value and income are no more value relevant under IAS than under HGB, and HGB (IAS) income is highly persistent (transitory). Finally, we find weak evidence that IAS income exhibits greater conditional conservatism than HGB income. Our results are consistent with the fair-value (income smoothing) orientation of IAS (HGB).

德国公共养老金调整指数改革研究

1957年德国首先建立了基于总工资指数的养老金调整指数,该指数运行34年后,面对人口老龄化的加剧,进行了多次改革。其改革的根本原因在于:基于养老金指数化调整的公共养老金计划缴税率不断攀升及由此对市场效率产生了严重负面影响。一个国家选择何种养老金调整指数取决于本国国情、经济发展状况等因素,但不能忽视调整指数对市场效率的影响,应坚持"效率优先,兼顾公平"的原则。作为发展中国家,中国在设计养老金调整指数时,坚持这一原则更为重要。     

德国生物技术产业发展现状及其研发创新

生物技术是当前最具潜力和最富活力的科技领域之一。德国联邦政府认为,从传统化石能源时代向生物经济时代过渡是人类社会发展的必然趋势．未来生命科学和生物技术将更广泛地应用于农业、林业、渔业、畜牧业、食品、化工、制药、能源、环保和商贸服务等众多产业领域。知识生物经济将提高国家竞争力。2010年11月,德国联邦政府发布了《生物经济2030：国家研究战略》。包括德国在内的世界各国政府都高度重视推动本国生物技术研发创新和产业化发展。本文对德国生物技术产业发展最新情况进行了调研,并对其研发创新及其产业化发展的政策机制进行了总结分析。     

德国依靠科技创新率先走出危机

2010年,德国经济实现了快速复苏,并率先走出危机,成为带动欧洲经济增长的火车头。“加大创新力度、调整产业结构、保持国际竞争优势”的政策取向是其关键内因。德国研究与创新专家委员会在报告中表示：2010年德国国家创新体系在危机中表现出色。本文对2010年德国科学技术发展总体情况进行了介绍。     

中德两国木质家具出口贸易的比较研究——基于1997--2009年数据的实证分析

通过1997--2009年的贸易数据对中德两国的木质家具出口贸易进行了比较研究。利用CMS模型测算了拉动两国木质家具出口增长的原因,进而通过显性比较优势指数和贸易结合度指数的测算,实证分析了中德两国各自具有比较优势的产品类型以及双边木质家具贸易的结合程度。结果发现,竞争力效应和一般增长效应分别是拉动中国和德国木质家具出口增长的主要因素,两国分别在不同种类的产品上具有比较优势且两国问的木质家具贸易结合程度不高,具有巨大的合作发展潜力。     

“Panelizing” Repeated Cross Sections

This paper considers the implementation of a non-stationary, heterogeneous Markov model for the analysis of binary dependent variables in a time series of repeated cross-sectional (RCS) surveys. The model offers the opportunity to estimate entry and exit transition probabilities and to examine the effects of time-constant and time-varying covariates on the hazards. We show how maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters can be obtained by Fishers method-of-scoring and how to estimate both fixed and time-varying covariate effects. The model is exemplified with an analysis of the labor force participation decision of Dutch and West German women using ISSP (and other) data from 10 annual Dutch surveys conducted between 1987 and 1996 and 7 annual West German surveys conducted between 1988 and 1994. Some open problems concerning the application of the model are discussed.