The influence of immigration and international tourism on the demand for imported food products

The role of immigration and international tourism in food product imports, as two factors which potentially influence the (trans-) formation of tastes in a country, is theoretically and empirically analysed. In using an econometric error-correction specification of an import demand function, the scale of the impact of these two factors is estimated for the case of Germany (annual data from 1967 to 1990). The results show that, while aggregate food import demand from India, Thailand, China and Turkey is inelastic with regard to migration to Germany and international travel activities of Germans to these destinations, the estimated average elasticities for imports of wine, cheese and processed/preserved vegetables from France and Italy are all well above unity, thus suggesting that immigration and international tourism may indeed affect the import demand for certain food products.     

面向社会发展目标的中德城市详细规划调控比较研究

本文聚焦于面向社会发展目标的城市详细规划调控问题.在中德城市规划社会发展目标分析的基础之上,从公平利用土地资源的制度保证、住房面积调控、公共服务设施配套、物质形态和景现、文化遗产保存5个方面,运用规划调控力比较模型进行了中国控制性详细规划和德国建造规划之间的面向社会发展目标的规划调控能力比较研究,进而界定出控规相对于德...     

专家对19世纪上半期德国交通政策的影响分析

19世纪上半期,德国的一批专家对政府的交通政策产生了较大的影响。他们给当时奋发向上的市民提供了社会舆论支持,同时他们自己又在更高的舞台上表演。他们在“是否采纳铁路作为交通工具”、“大技术体系”等方面进行了充分的讨论,给政府提供了富有建设性的意见,并由此创造了学者政治的模式。专家们并不谋求直接在政治上发展,而是把自己看成超党派的公众的良心;而政府听取他们的意见,则体现了政府尊重科学的明智之举。     

“Panelizing” Repeated Cross Sections

This paper considers the implementation of a non-stationary, heterogeneous Markov model for the analysis of binary dependent variables in a time series of repeated cross-sectional (RCS) surveys. The model offers the opportunity to estimate entry and exit transition probabilities and to examine the effects of time-constant and time-varying covariates on the hazards. We show how maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters can be obtained by Fishers method-of-scoring and how to estimate both fixed and time-varying covariate effects. The model is exemplified with an analysis of the labor force participation decision of Dutch and West German women using ISSP (and other) data from 10 annual Dutch surveys conducted between 1987 and 1996 and 7 annual West German surveys conducted between 1988 and 1994. Some open problems concerning the application of the model are discussed.     

Rural Economies and Transitions to Capitalism: Germany and England Compared (c.1200–c.1800)

Based on a synthesis of the empirical scholarship on England and Germany, this paper demonstrates that in both regions, rural socio‐economic developments from c.1200 to c.1800 are similar: this period witnesses the rise to numerical predominance and growing economic significance of the ‘sub‐peasant classes’, which had a growing impact on the market as a result of their increasing market dependence, and from which – towards the end of the period – a rural proletariat emerged. Against the influential theory of Robert Brenner, it is argued that the period c.1200–c.1400 cannot really be categorized as ‘feudal’ according to Brenner's definition; and ‘agrarian capitalism’ does not adequately describe the socio‐economic system that obtained by the end of the sixteenth century. A genuine transition to capitalism is only evident from after c.1750, and can be found in Germany as well as in England; it is predicated both on ideological shifts and on the evolution of the rural proletariat, which is only found in large numbers by or after c.1800.     

The contribution of holiday trips to life satisfaction: the case of people with disabilities

This study analyses the contribution of holiday trips to the life satisfaction (LS) of people with disabilities as compared to people without disabilities. Particular attention is paid to the effects of the intensity of taking part in holiday trips on LS. We are interested in testing two different hypotheses: (a) holiday trips increase individuals' LS and (b) the effects of holiday trips on LS are different for people without and with disabilities, being greater for this latter group. Using longitudinal data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, we estimate LS equations (running generalised least square random-effects models) for people without and with disabilities which include a set of variables measuring participation or not in holiday trips and its intensity. Although people with disabilities are less likely to participate in holiday trips than people without disabilities, the results indicate that people with disabilities obtain higher levels of LS than people without disabilities from their participation in holiday trips, especially when this participation is more intense. Policy-makers and the tourism industry must promote and facilitate full access and participation of people with disabilities in holiday trips by eliminating all barriers, understanding their differential needs and providing an inclusive leisure environment.     

Taxable treatment of the subsistence level of income in German Natural Law

Natural Law has influenced German tax theories up to the present day. It has also influenced the request for the subsistence level exemption and the granting of a basic allowance, which only developed their full persuasiveness when derived from Natural Law. This paper shows that Natural Law tax theory (mid 1600s to early 1800s), based the subsistence level tax exemption on the right to live, the individualistic state contract theory and the ability-to-pay principle. It also reveals that Adam Smith's view regarding ability-to-pay as a basis for taxation was already contained in British Natural Law and in older German traditions.     

“中美国”的终结

在过去十年中,世界经济表现较好的原因是,形成了由中国出口导向型发展和美国过度消费相结合的经济模式。2007～2009年的金融危机可能标志着"中美国"时代的终结。本文将从经济史学者的视角研究这一时期的种种事态发展及其产生的深远影响。中国经济模式在1998～2007将近10年间,某些方面类似于西德和日本第二次世界大战之后的经济模式,即对美的贸易顺差在推动经济增长中发挥了主要作用。然而值得注意的是,中国与这两个国家的经济模式存在着两个关键性差异。首先,中国干预货币的规模是前所未有的,而这对世界经济造成的扭曲也是如此;其次,中国迄今为止仍抵制类似西德和日本升值货币的做法。从中可以推断出,当前的"中美国"形式不可能长久。在20世纪70年代,世界经济的重新平衡有赖于汇率的大幅度调整。但是,中国政府目前采取的汇率调整却无法平衡当前世界经济。     

Germany and Italy: conflicting policy paradigms towards European monetary integration?

In the literature on European monetary integration Germany and Italy are mostly strongly contrasted. However, this paper argues that there were important similarities between the policy paradigms in these two countries, in particular if a broader historical perspective is adopted. This work analyses the policy paradigms towards European monetary integration in Italy and Germany. Moreover, it contextualises these paradigms into the national institutional setting: while Germany was characterised by power sharing institutions, Italy featured power fragmentation (something which also affected the economic performance of both countries). There were significant differences between the policy paradigms of foreign policy-makers and economic policy-makers. Foreign policy makers, in both countries, under the influence of a European federalist vision, were strongly in favour of European monetary integration. These beliefs of foreign policy decision makers were crucial in charting EMU policy at history-making moments. The pro EMU policy paradigms of foreign policymakers contrasted, during most of the period covered, with the more sceptical beliefs of economic policy makers. In both countries, economic policy-makers, at different moments, had doubts whether enough “convergence” had been reached to make a more stable exchange rate system sustainable.

The German labor market during the Great Recession: Shocks and institutions

This paper analyzes Germany's unusual labor market experience during the Great Recession. We estimate a general equilibrium model with a detailed labor market block for post-unification Germany. This allows us to disentangle the role of institutions (short-time work, government spending rules) and shocks (aggregate, labor market, and policy shocks) and to perform counterfactual exercises. We identify positive labor market performance shocks (likely caused by labor market reforms) as the key driver for the “German labor market miracle” during the Great Recession.