Survey of Recent Developments

Amid global economic uncertainty and tumbling world oil prices, Indonesia's economy faces pressure on its external balance and a continued growth slowdown. The government of President Joko Widodo (widely known as Jokowi) has set an agenda of reform, including simpler, faster investment licensing, historic cuts to fuel subsidies to generate fiscal savings, and increased spending on infrastructure. On the political side, Jokowi has had to deal with several political issues coming not only from parties in opposition but also from parties supporting his government, including during the formation of the new cabinet. We examine the consequences so far of the government's policy initiatives and of the policymaking process. While some initiatives have been implemented with success, some seem to have been launched without enough preparation, consultation, or empirical evidence, and many have been poorly communicated. Although inflation accelerated after the November fuel-price rise, efforts have been made to contain inflationary expectations and to mitigate the effects on poverty through social-assistance programs. The government took steps to cushion the impending impacts of higher fuel prices on vulnerable households by giving cash handouts of Rp 200,000 per month to 15.5 million disadvantaged families who receive the lowest level of welfare, and by promoting publicly funded education and health care. The partial removal of gasoline subsidies and the introduction of a fixed-subsidy policy for diesel in the revised 2015 budget reduce uncertainty about the fiscal position, although increases in government spending in infrastructure development were announced at the same time. The revised budget for 2015 increases spending on infrastructure development by 63% from the 2014 budget, mostly on projects to improve connectivity on land and at sea—such as the development of toll roads, railways, and ports—and to increase the performance of the agricultural sector. However, the recent drop in international oil prices forced the government to increase its target for tax revenue by 30% on last year's target, raising concerns about the effect of falling oil prices on the economy. Trade and investment policy reform is important in unlocking Indonesia's growth potential and improving the country's current external balance. Jokowi's administration, however, has been sending mixed signals about its position towards more open policies. The country has yet to recommence several trade negotiations that were postponed in 2014 and is still struggling to meet its commitments under the ASEAN Economic Community. Although improvement in investment procedures and licensing is currently underway, Indonesia needs to adopt a more positive attitude if it is to attract more investment.     

燃料乙醇政策研究及定价机制探讨

针对目前燃料乙醇行业发展的困境,结合现行法规政策体系、补贴政策和定价机制,分析存在的问题,借鉴美国法规体系、目标标准、补贴措施和RFS实施与管理,提出政策建议、燃料乙醇新定价机制与燃料乙醇推广环节的补偿机制。     

Prohibiting State Aid in an Integrated Market: Cournot and Bertrand Oligopolies with Differentiated Products

The prohibition of state aid in an integrated market such as the European Community is analyzed in a model where firms produce differentiated products and market structure is either Cournot or Bertrand oligopoly. State aid is financed by distortionary taxation so the opportunity cost of government revenue exceeds unity. Under both Cournot and Bertrand oligopoly, if products are sufficiently close substitutes then there exists a range of values for opportunity cost where governments give state aid and where the prohibition of state aid will increase aggregate welfare. With sufficiently differentiated products, the prohibition of state aid will reduce aggregate welfare.     

美欧TTIP谈判最新进展及中国的应对策略

《跨大西洋贸易和投资伙伴关系协议》谈判被认为是历史上最大双边贸易协议谈判,如果协议达成,将会给美欧带来颇丰的经济和地缘政治利益,因此双方对该协议都抱有很大期望并为谈判设定了较高标准.但是,双方在诸多敏感问题如农产品补贴、转基因、地理标志等方面都存在分歧,这给谈判增加了不小的难度.无论该自由贸易和投资协议最终能否达成,中国都应积极关注,因为一旦达成最终的协议,将有可能动摇中国在世界贸易体系中的地位.     

How effective is a fat subsidy? Evidence from edible oil consumption in India

Taxes on fats and sugar-sweetened beverages are deployed in the developed world to encourage healthier diets. How effective might such fiscal instruments be in emerging economies? We evaluate the impacts of a subsidy for palm oil, introduced as part of the public distribution system in three Indian states. Using variants of the difference-in-differences approach, we find that palm oil consumption increased, particularly in rural areas, as a result of the subsidy, and traditional oils were displaced by cheaper palm oil. However, the intervention did not significantly alter overall edible oil consumption. These results are robust to different specifications, alternative estimation samples, and the exclusion of households who may have been potential beneficiaries of other interventions. Impacts were higher in Tamil Nadu than in other states, and were higher for vegetarian households in rural areas. There was only weak evidence of spillover income effects on other food groups. Given India's dual burden of malnutrition, our analysis suggests that fiscal policy interventions have the potential to effectively nudge consumer choices towards healthier edible oil consumption.     

政府补贴、技术来源与创新绩效——基于重庆大中型工业企业的实证研究

文章以重庆大中型工业企业2000-2011年数据为样本,实证研究了细分技术源和政府补贴的创新绩效影响。结果表明:内部RD、技术改造和国内技术购买均可提升创新绩效,其中技术改造的创新绩效正影响最大;国外技术引进对创新绩效的直接影响显著为负,但国外技术引进与技术改造和国内技术购买存在显著的正向互动关系,说明国外技术引进需与技术改造和国内技术购买结合才能提升创新绩效;政府补贴可刺激企业扩大内部RD和技术改造而提升创新绩效,但难以影响企业国内外技术引进的决策。因此,技术改造对提升创新绩效最有效。     

开化县生态公益林建设现状与发展对策分析

基于浙江省集体林区开化县林业局访谈资料,在分析和评价其生态公益林建设现状的基础上,得出其存在森林资源利用不足,林下经济单一,管护体系不健全、公益林调整困难等问题。从主导措施和配套措施角度提出加快生态性城镇建设,利用RS和GIS技术区划边界、健全保障制度、探索发展林下经济等保护和经营管理对策。     

The Welfare Economics of a Biofuel Tax Credit and the Interaction Effects with Price Contingent Farm Subsidies

A framework is developed to analyze the effects of a biofuel consumer tax exemption and the interaction effects with a price contingent farm subsidy. Ethanol prices rise above the gasoline price by the amount of the tax credit. Corn farmers gain directly while gasoline consumers only gain from any reduction in world oil prices due to the extra ethanol production. Domestic oil producers lose. Historically, the intercept of the ethanol supply curve is above the gasoline price. Hence, part of the tax credit is redundant and represents "rectangular" deadweight costs that dwarf triangular deadweight cost measures of traditional farm subsidies.     

Can Production Subsidies Explain China's Export Performance? Evidence from Firm‐level Data*

This paper analyses the relationship between production subsidies and firms’ export performance using a very comprehensive and recent firm‐level database and controlling for the endogeneity of subsidies. It documents robust evidence that production subsidies stimulate export activity at the intensive margin, although this effect is conditional on firm characteristics. In particular, the positive relationship between subsidies and the intensive margin of exports is strongest among profit‐making firms, firms in capital‐intensive industries, and those located in non‐coastal regions. Compared to firm characteristics, the extent of heterogeneity across ownership structure (SOEs, collectives, and privately owned firms) proves to be relatively less important.     

The effectiveness of R&D subsidies

In this paper, the effectiveness of R&D subsidies is analyzed in an oligopolistic model that we apply to the cases of international R&D competition and cooperation. We find that the existence of asymmetric information among firms on whether a rival (or partner) is being subsidized or not may play a key role in explaining whether subsidies are effective or not in increasing R&D investments. In particular, it is shown that if the existence of the subsidy is made public (e.g. because strict information release regulation about R&D subsidies is enforced) and depending on the strategic relationship between the firms’ R&D efforts, an R&D subsidy could even hurt the subsidized firm.