A multinomial logit approach to exchange rate policy classification with an application to growth

We model a country's de jure exchange rate policy as the choice from a multinomial logit response conditioned on the volatility of its bilateral exchange rate, the volatility of its international reserves, and the volatility of its effective exchange rate. The category with the highest predictive probability implied by the logit regressions serves as our de facto exchange rate policy. An empirical investigation into the relationship between the de facto classifications and GDP growth finds that growth is higher under stable currency-value policies. For non-industrialized countries, a more nuanced characterization of exchange rate policy finds that those who exhibit ‘fear of floating’ experience significantly higher growth.     

POVERTY TRAPS WITH LOCAL ALLOCATION TAX GRANTS IN JAPAN

This essay investigates poverty traps related to Local Allocation Tax (LAT) grants in Japan. LAT grants, which are transfers of funds from the central government to local governments, make efforts for enhancing regional economic growth, due to the calculation of the LAT grants. Using a simple dynamic model, we show that LAT grants lower regional income and are a disincentive to localities to increase their estimated tax revenue. Using panel Granger (non‐)causality tests, we find empirical support for asserting that there are poverty traps due to the LAT grants in Japan.     

Terrorism and the Invisible Hook

This article investigates and compares the root causes of transnational terrorism and piracy. In order to accomplish this, we construct a novel data set that catalogues terrorist activity and piracy over the years 1992–2008, paying particular attention to the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean since 1991. These data are then merged with other information detailing the economic, political, and security posture of each organization during the same period so that we can examine the relationship between economic prosperity, security, terrorism, and piracy. The main conclusion is that terrorism is mostly unrelated to economic conditions, while piracy responds to both economic payoffs and military deterrents.     

浅谈智能住宅小区建设

随着科学技术的飞速发展,近年现代高科技和信息技术正在由智能大厦走向智能住宅小区,进而走进家庭.智能住宅小区,是指通过综合配置住宅区内的各功能子系统,以综合布线为基础,以计算机网络为区内各种设备管理自动化的新型住宅小区.现代社会的家庭成员正在以追求家庭智能化带来的多元化信息和安全、舒适与便利的生活环境作为一个理想的目标.     

Assessing the World Bank's Influence on the Good Governance Paradigm

What does “good governance” mean for the World Bank and to what extent has the organisation been successful in diffusing the paradigm worldwide? The Bank focused primarily on economic aspects of governance in the 1980s and progressively moved to emphasise its political dimensions towards the end of the 1990s. In this paper, the soft power of the Bank is analysed in relation to this specific issue through bibliometric methods and by examining the role of governance indicators, especially within the donor community.     

The Eurozone needs exit rules

This study argues that the key issue for defining and solving the Eurozone’s (EZ) difficulties lies in readjusting the relationship between the centre and the periphery of the EZ. Our argument proceeds in two steps. Firstly, the basic finance problem of a centre-periphery system is captured by a threat game with complete but imperfect information. To get close to the essence of the current EZ sovereign debt crisis we analyse to what extent a ‘troubled’ periphery member can negotiate a bailout from the centre due to the existence of a negative externality arising from its potential default. Secondly, we analyse how establishing ‘exit rules’ would shift the centre-periphery relationship in a way that safeguards the stability of the EZ. We demonstrate that such rules may help limit the scope for brinkmanship whereby fiscal problems in one member state create a negative externality for the rest of the EZ. We then discuss key policy implications concerning financial aspects of the centre-periphery relationship within the EZ.     

Face Value: Information and Signaling in an Illegal Market

Economists argue that rich information environments and formal enforcement of contracts are necessary to prevent market failures when information asymmetries exist. We test for the necessity of formal enforcement to overcome the problems of asymmetric information by estimating the value of information in an illegal market with a particularly rich information structure: the online market for male sex work. We assemble a rich data set from the largest and most comprehensive online male sex worker Web site to estimate the effect of information on pricing. We show how clients of male sex workers informally police the market in a way that makes signaling credible. Using institutional knowledge, we identify the specific signal male sex workers use to communicate quality to clients: face pictures. We find that there is a substantial return to the signal in this market. The findings provide novel evidence on the ability of rich information environments to overcome problems of asymmetric information without formal enforcement mechanisms.     

Schooling and Citizenship in a Young Democracy: Evidence from Postwar Germany

This paper examines whether schooling has a causal impact on individuals' political behavior. Between 1949 and 1969, the number of compulsory years of schooling in the Federal Republic of Germany was gradually increased across all federal states. These legislative changes provide an opportunity to investigate the causal impact of schooling on political behavior. Years of schooling are found to be positively correlated with several political outcomes. However, there is little evidence of a causal effect. This study conjectures that there is ample historical evidence to support the hypothesis that the fundamentals of democracy were already learned earlier in school, potentially outweighing the political returns of schooling in Germany.     

Private Benefits of Managerial Control,Government Ownership,and Acquirer Returns: Evidence from the Chinese State‐Controlled Listed Companies

This article examines how government ownership affects the relationship between private benefits of managerial control, measured as excessive overhead expenses, and profitability of acquirers. A total of 246 merger and acquisition (M&A) events from Chinese state‐controlled listed companies (CSCLCs) between 2001 and 2006 constitutes the analytical sample. Under a low level of government shareholding, private benefits of managerial control positively correlated with acquirer announcement returns. However, there was no relationship between private benefits of managerial control and acquirer announcement returns under a high level of government shareholding. The implications of these findings for scholarship and practice are discussed. Copyright © 2011 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

配合物[Co(amb)_2(phen)(H_2O)]_2·CH_3OH的合成与表征

本文主要讨论配合物[Co(mb)(2phen)(H2O)]·2CH3OH(phen是指菲罗啉)的合成和结构表征。对丙烯酰胺基苯甲酸(Hamb)为第一配体,邻菲罗啉(phen)为第二配体,通过固相法与过渡金属醋酸钴反应,合成得到一个结构新颖的配合物,[Co(amb)(2phen)(H2O)]2·CH3OH。并将合成得到的配合物与苯乙烯单体共聚,得到含配合物结构单元的聚合物,为开发配合物-聚合物杂化新材料打下一定的理论基础。