人民币汇率预测及方法选择——基于ARIMA与GARCH模型

自2005年7月人民币汇率改革以来,人民币持续升值,已影响到经济生活的各个方面,正确分析与预测汇价及其波动对各经济主体金融政策与投融资决策的制定有着十分重要的意义。本文选取国内外学者较为认同的ARIMA和GARCH模型对人民币美元汇率建模,并对其预测误差进行分析,结果表明在对人民币兑美元中间价的预测中,GARCH模型预测相对ARIMA模型更优。     

中国经济增长的可能性:一种基于修正的索洛模型的估算

索洛模型这一经典的经济增长模型有它无可比拟的优点,但对于考察中国问题来说,也有一些内在缺陷.本文根据中国经济增长的特征事实,对索洛模型做出了一些修正,并据此对中国经济增长的可能性进行了重新估算.     

经济结构调整视角下区域产业集群的识别与选择

笔者以当前经济结构调整的要求为视角,确定现代产业集群的选择基准,在此基础上构建产业集群选择的指标体系,然后利用因子分析法,以西安市制造业为例分析各个产业集群的效果,最终筛选出该区域优势产业集群为:以汽车制造和航空航天器制造为主的交通运输设备制造业产业集群;以中药材和化学药品为主的医药制造业产业集群;电器机械及器材制造业产业集群。     

Impact of Donald Trump’s tariff increase against Chinese imports on global economy: Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model

Donald Trump’s presidential campaign contains several trade protectionism plans. This paper aims to analyze possible global impact of United States’ plan to impose import tariff increase against China. The GTAP model is implemented. The simulations present possible short-run effects of full-protection and manufacturing-only protection with appropriate retaliation response from China. The policy might lead to GDP, terms-of-trade, and welfare decline in United States and China; and an increase in trade balance for United States. Trade diversion pattern is observed in the simulation results, predicting shrinking bilateral trade between the two countries and increasing export toward their third trading partners.     

“德合”船基于MOSES软件的DP作业分析

结合“德合”船DP动力定位系统,以康斯博格DP吊重测试文件为基础,基于MOSES软件对DP吊重测试过程中船舶关键数值进行模拟分析。建立了基于Moses软件的船舶模型及计算模型,对吊重过程中船舶吃水变化进行分析,选择典型吃水给到水动力模型中计算DP动力响应。从计算结果可以看出,随着吊机受力增加,船舶吃水逐渐增加,DP系统输出功率明显增加且对应关系明显。此计算结果为“德合”船DP测试安全进行提供数据支持,该计算模型也可以为以后海上DP吊装作业积累数据经验并提供参考。     

Modelling distribution of aggregate expenditure on tourism

The aim of this article is to obtain a statistical distribution that describes the aggregate expenditure of tourists related to their length of stay at a given location. This distribution enables us to estimate two parameters simultaneously; one controls the length of stay and the other, the expense incurred. We propose two distribution models, for which closed-form expressions are obtained. Covariates are introduced in order to study the factors that affect the aggregate expenditure. The results obtained indicate that the models achieve a reasonably good fit, with and without covariates.     

主题公园游客流稳定性测评——以深圳华侨城为例

保持稳定的游客流是提高主题公园经营业绩和管理绩效、延长主题公园生命周期的有效途径之一。本文从主题公园自身特点出发,构建了主题公园游客流稳定性驱动模型,建立了主题公园游客流稳定性测评体系,并以深圳华侨城为例,通过因子分析和结构方程分析,对景区的游客流稳定性进行测评,分析各综合变量对游客流稳定性的驱动作用的大小以及变量之间的相互影响关系,为主题公园调控游客流稳定性提供参考依据。     

入境旅游:基于引力模型的实证研究

本文利用传统的国际贸易引力模型,考察了影响中国入境旅游的一些因素,包括经济发展水平、绝对距离、地理与文化上的差异性(共同性)、是否属于同一个贸易区,以及国家之间是否免签证等.我们发现,这些因素对解释变量具有明确的影响,但影响最大的是绝时距离和经济发展水平.在上述基础上,我们考察了入境旅游对几个主要变量的扰动所形成的响应路径.     

Evolution of indigenous tourism among the Lacandon of Chiapas: an application of Weaver’s model

ABSTRACT

In this paper, Weaver’s six-stage indigenous tourism model is applied to the Lacandon Maya (Hach Winik) of Chiapas, Mexico. Based on a comprehensive review of the anthropological and historical literature on this indigenous group, combined with longitudinal ethnographic and collaborative research performed with tourism entrepreneurs, the Lacandon tourism experience is assessed from the pre-European period until present. By analysing a case study of indigenous tourism in Mexico, a developing country in another geographical region and with a different colonial past, this work supplements Weavers’ perspective. The results show that the fourth and fifth stages of Weaver’s model coincide in this case study, while the sixth stage is still incomplete. Although the Lacandon case has its peculiarities and bearing in mind that several different factors should be considered in the Latin American context, the model proves to be an interesting tool for indigenous tourism analysis in developing countries.     

An Initial Investigation of Integrating Innovation Diffusion Models for Drawing First‐time Visitors

Prior studies in the existing tourism literature have frequently emphasized the relatively expensive costs for drawing first‐time visitors. These studies, however, have largely failed to explain how to draw first‐time visitors to a destination. In other words, little was known regarding what destinations should do to attract first‐time visitors in an effective way. To provide more insights, this research investigated the impact of three diffusion models on attracting first‐time visitors. These models included an external influence model for impact of mass media, an internal influence model for impact of interpersonal communications, and a mixed model for impacts of both mass media and interpersonal communications. Assessing the model impact in a macroapproach for first‐time visitors to Hong Kong, empirical findings indicated that the mixed influence model provided the highest explanatory quality, with word‐of‐mouth being a dominant factor.