Illusory Price Increases after the Euro Changeover in Germany: An Expectancy-Consistent Bias

The aim of the present report is to review research demonstrating the role played by expectations for observed illusory price increases after the euro introduction in Germany. In laboratory experiments when participants are asked to estimate price changes in a restaurant following the euro introduction, the price estimates are found to be biased in the direction of the expectation of rising prices. The research also examines the extent to which a similar judgment bias is evident in other areas and how interventions counteract the bias. A further focus of the research is on the underlying process. In this respect the results show that the bias is based on a selective outcome correction process not previously described. Theoretical implications and practical implications for consumer policy issues are highlighted.

外商直接投资对经济增长的影响——基于母国的分析

文章分析了对外直接投资影响经济增长的途径;利用计量经济模型,揭示了对外直接投资与母国经济增长的关系;最后研究了我国发展对外直接投资的必要性与巨大潜力,提出了促进我国对外直接投资发展的对策。     

反倾销法中的非市场经济问题

我国许多出口商品已成为反倾销措施的主要目标，其根本原因是由于中国被视为“非市场经济国家”，在产品出口时遭受到不公平的歧视待遇。美国和欧盟对“非市场经济国家” 认定的标准以及对非市场经济国家出口产品正常价值的确定方法其中存在诸多问题和不合理之处，根据中国在非市场经济问题上所处的地位必须采取相应对策。     

Incorporating heterogeneity with store-level aggregate data

This paper introduces a methodology to incorporate heterogeneity in the analysis of store level aggregate data. The proposed model is validated using two sets of scanner panel data, for tuna and ketchup, and their corresponding weekly aggregate data. The model recovers the true parameters with acceptable accuracy.The model has several advantages over the previous aggregate models, such as the linear model, the semilog model, and the log-log model. First, the cross-price elasticities estimated from the model show the asymmetric responses to the price promotions very close to those from the logit model applied to the panel data. Second, the model shows better prediction performance.     

Country terms of trade: trends,unit roots,over-differencing,endogeneity, time dummies,and heterogeneity

The debate about the Prebisch-Singer thesis has focused on primary commodities with some extensions to manufactures. We analyse trends in country terms-of-trade for goods and services rather than those for commodities according to the World Bank income classification. We find that the natural logarithm of the terms of trade for all groups except for the poorest has common unit roots, but none has individual unit roots. As low-income countries have no unit roots over-differencing is inefficient and biases significance levels in first differences against the fall in the terms of trade. For the low-income countries the terms of trade of goods and services are falling at a rate that is significantly negative without and with endogeneity treatment by system GMM. A comprehensive analysis of the effects of time dummies supports the result of falling terms of trade for low-income countries. When all coefficients are country-specific 50% of all low-income countries have falling terms of trade in a simultaneous equation estimation using the SUR method. Food and financial crisis have no effect on the number of countries with falling terms of trade, but (dis-)improve the terms of trade or the significance of the results for a very small number of countries.     

How price complexity takes its toll: The neglected role of a simplicity bias and fairness in price evaluations

Marketing managers commonly employ complex price plans. Surprisingly, limited and conflicting evidence reports how customers perceive and react to complex prices. This study examines perceptions about price complexity and shows that customers tend to prefer simple prices. Two experimental studies show that perceived price complexity negatively affects customer perceptions of price fairness and influences product choice because customers negatively evaluate the transparency of the firm's pricing practices and infer higher total prices. Customers comparing alternate offerings may therefore prefer simple over complex prices, even when the latter are less expensive. Study results suggest limiting price plan variations positively affects customer inferences about transparency and fairness, and thus customer choice.     

隧道穿越顺层偏压高瓦斯地段施工控制技术研究

本文就成贵铁路镇雄至毕节区间隧道施工为工程实例,以高坡隧道(D3K338+600.78~D3K343+168.78)在施工过程中穿越顺层偏压高瓦斯地段施工方法及施工控制技术为施工实例,详细阐述了隧道穿越顺层偏压高瓦斯地段时采用“横洞、平导、通风竖井+全封复合式衬砌”方法作为通风及支护的施工控制技术。     

Analysts' Forecasts Following Forced CEO Changes

This paper examines analysts' earnings forecasts during the period of uncertainty following a change of chief executive officer (CEO). It distinguishes between forced and non‐forced CEO changes, and examines whether analysts utilize their information advantage to reduce the heightened uncertainty of a forced change of CEO. Examining a sample of Australian companies followed by analysts between 1999 and 2009, we find that forecasting accuracy is lower and earnings forecasts are more optimistic for firms experiencing forced CEO turnover compared to firms not undergoing such a change. However, dispersion is not statistically different. The results suggest that forced CEO turnover events provide a challenge to the forecasting environment for analysts. During CEO changes, investors should be aware that forecasts are less accurate and have an optimistic bias.     

“省直管县”弱化了资源的城市偏向性配置吗?———财政转移支付视角简

中国长期存在的“城乡二元分治”制度导致资源配置呈现明显的城市偏向特征,加剧了城乡不平等,也不利于社会和谐。基于财政转移支付的视角,文章研究发现,“省直管县”改革通过以下两个机制扭转了资源的城市偏向性配置：第一,“省直管县”改革提高了县乡经济发展激励,增加了县乡公共服务支出责任并提高了县级地区资金匹配能力,有利于县乡在既有分配规则下获取更多的财政转移支付。第二,“省直管县”改善了基层政府的财政地位,减少了上级政府的资金截留;同时使县辖区公共需求向上的传递渠道更加顺畅,从外部环境上为其获得更多的财政转移支付创造了条件。此外,多维度的检验也为深入了解财政转移支付分配规则的缺陷以及如何增进财政转移支付分配的公平性提供了经验证据。