Trading volume and stock returns: A meta-analysis

I examine 468 estimates on the relationship between trading volume and stock returns reported in 44 studies. I study publication bias together with Bayesian and frequentist model averaging to explain the heterogeneity in the estimates. The results yield three key conclusions. First, publication bias distorts the findings of the primary studies. Second, the predictability of stock returns varies with different markets and stock types. Third, different data characteristics, structural variations and methodologies used drive the heterogeneity in the results of the primary articles. In particular, one should be cautious when using monthly data or VAR models.     

Why did the equity home bias fall during the financial panic of 2008?

Investors tend to put most of their wealth in local stocks; theories of portfolio choice and uncertainty aversion jointly predict that this home bias should increase during a financial crisis. Yet, using a sample of 45 countries, I document that the equity home bias fell during the financial panic of 2008. Exploiting bilateral stock holdings, I find that investors actively increased their home bias, but large valuation changes subsumed these trades. Across countries, the change in home bias is consistent with partial portfolio rebalancing and increased information asymmetries during the crisis.     

Environmental Multi‐dimensionality and Staff Localization in Multinational Enterprises: The Case of Korean Firms

The person–environment fit theory posits that the term “environment” can be defined at different levels. This study delineates two environmental dimensions (strategic and organizational) and empirically examines the potential moderating effects of two strategic factors (intra‐ and inter‐regional diversification) on the relationship between two organizational factors (subsidiary ownership and host‐country experience) and MNE subsidiary staffing composition. The results indicate that strategic and organizational dimensions have impacts on subsidiary staffing composition. This study also finds that the interaction effects between strategic and organizational factors are significant only when there is congruence between demands from different environmental dimensions.     

Risks from self-referential peer review echo chambers developing in research fields: 2018 Keynote Address presented at The British Accounting Review 50th Anniversary Celebrations,British Accounting and Finance Association Annual Conference,London

Denigration of academic experts and expertise, amid a resurgence of political populism, poses a challenge to the legitimacy of academic research. Addressing this challenge requires us to continually demonstrate the importance of basing policy interventions on reliable evidence, rather than unevidenced assertions that gain traction through communication echo chambers. However, unconscious confirmation biases in collection and analysis of evidence can impair the reliability of our research insights. A key source of such confirmation biases are unchallenged ideologies and other taken-for-granted assumptions underlying any research (sub)field. This essay argues that informal and formal peer review processes at many stages of research need to highlight and challenge both conscious selectivity bias and unconscious confirmation bias. However, they are unlikely to do so where researchers only take on board feedback from peers in the same (sub)field who share ideological commitments and taken-for-granted assumptions. In such circumstances, self-referential peer review echo chambers can develop that entrench rather than challenge weaknesses in a research (sub)field. This can be a major risk to the effectiveness and reputation of any academic research (sub)field; a risk we need to confront.     

Home purchase restriction,real estate investment,and corporate innovation

It is ubiquitous for non-real estate firms to conduct real estate business in China. Home purchase restriction (HPR) affects corporate innovation by dampening the real estate investment of non-real estate firms. The extant literature has examined the impact of HPR on corporate innovation, but it has not focused on the expectation of HPR and the endogeneity problem. Employing a dataset of 1830 listed non-real estate firms over the period 2009–2016, this research explores the expectation of HPR on corporate innovation based on the motivations for real estate investment in non-real estate firms. We demonstrate that HPR facilitates the enhancement of research and development (R&D) investment in non-real estate listed firms by hindering real estate investment, particularly for non-high-tech firms. The effects of HPR arrive at the crest in the third implementation year and remain steady thereafter. The real estate investment of non-real estate firms rebounds and the R&D investment declines along with the cancellation of HPR. Tackling the selection bias and endogeneity problems, the baseline results are also robust. Hence, HPR should serve as a long-term vehicle to improving corporate innovation, in addition to preventing housing speculation.     

Assessing self-selection and endogeneity issues in the relation between activity-based costing and performance

Studies investigating the relation between ABC adoption and performance are inconclusive and plagued with econometric problems. This study extends prior research to investigate the association between ABC adoption and four manufacturing plant performance measures (cycle-time improvement, quality improvement, cost improvement, and profitability) and to assess selection bias and the endogenous nature of their relationship. I use the Heckman (1979) model to assess sample selection bias and the Wooldridge (2002) 2SLS-IV approach, to investigate endogeneity. After controlling for sample selection bias and endogeneity, the coefficient of ABC under the Heckman method and ABC_fit under the 2SLS-IV method becomes significantly higher compared to the coefficient of ABC under the OLS method. In addition, both the inverse Mills ratio, under the Heckman model, and Hausman F-test, under the Wooldridge 2SLS approach, are positive and significant, confirming the presence of both sample selection bias and endogeneity. Overall, I find that controlling for sample selection bias and endogeneity is essential in properly assessing the significance of ABC-performance association.     

Evaluating domestic bias on airline passengers’ ratings: The moderating effect of cultural value orientation

We explore differences in airline passengers’ online ratings toward domestic and foreign carriers. Using a dataset of more than 380,000 airline passenger reviews obtained from TripAdvisor, we show that on average passengers express higher satisfaction (as proxied by their overall rating) for airline service encounters with domestic carriers, exhibiting a form of domestic bias. Using Hofstede’s framework, we examine how cultural dimensions influence the strength of this bias and find support for the moderating impact (positive and negative) of passengers’ cultural dimensions on their provided ratings toward domestic airlines. The study has theoretical and practical implications for international marketing researchers and airline operational planners.     

NOMINAL GDP TARGETING AND CENTRAL BANK CONSERVATIVENESS

In the literature on monetary economics, there is the ‘inflationary bias’ result which predicts that the rate of inflation will be biased towards a higher level under discretionary monetary policy than under a rule‐based policy regime. It is established that a credible nominal target can eliminate this ‘inflationary bias’. In this paper, we examine the case of nominal GDP targeting, which is a rule‐based monetary regime. Depending on the degree of conservativeness by the central bank, we show in a stylized model the choice of different combination of inflation and real GDP targets can still result in an ‘inflationary bias’, and there also exists the possibility of a ‘dis‐inflationary bias’.     

Trade Liberalization and Environmental Taxation in Federal Systems

The literature on trade liberalization and environment has not yet considered federal structures. In this paper, we show how the design of environmental policy in a federal system has implications for the effects of trade reform. Trade liberalization leads to a decline in pollution taxes, regardless of whether pollution taxes are set at the federal (centralized) or local (decentralized) level, and it increases social welfare. The effect under a decentralized system is smaller than if these taxes are set by the federal government, and pollution emissions therefore decline in this case. Moreover, majority bias interacts with trade liberalization if federal taxes are used.     

Liquidity shocks: A new solution to the forward premium puzzle

The frequent empirical failure of uncovered interest rate parity raises a question that has not been definitively answered: why do predictable excess returns on currencies persist in competitive currency markets? Supported by data from nine major currencies for 1978:08–2019:09, I provide a novel resolution to this enduring forward premium puzzle by building on the financial economics literature that explores the economic implications of limited access to capital markets. A liquidity shock, or the urgent demand for liquidity by credit-constrained arbitragers liquidating bond holdings, causes losses from sudden drops in bond prices. Arbitragers require a liquidity premium to compensate for potential losses that vary directly with the interest rate. It is this liquidity premium that explains persistent excess returns on currencies. I argue for policies favoring a low interest rate environment and macroprudential controls that ease liquidity constraints to increase the efficiency of international capital markets by reducing the liquidity premium.