Is cognitive bias really present in analyst forecasts? The role of investor sentiment

This paper analyses four key markets within the European context. In this context, where the level of analyst coverage is lower than in the US setting, we aim to ascertain whether the origin of optimism in analyst forecasts in these markets is mainly strategic or whether it also contains an element of cognitive bias. Despite the fact that forecast errors lack the explanatory power to account for a significant percentage of the relationship between market sentiment and future stock returns, our new tests based on selection bias (SB1 and SB2), in conjunction with an analysis of abnormal trading volume, confirm the presence of both cognitive bias and strategic behaviour in analyst forecasts. This shows that, although regulation can reduce analyst optimism bias, the benefits are constrained by the fact that optimism bias is partly associated with cognitive bias.     

Emerging Bond Market Volatility and Country Spreads

Using JPMorgan's emerging market bond index, this paper analyzes how increases in country credit spreads can persist in emerging bond markets. The results of T-GARCH regressions show that, during financial crisis periods, emerging countries' credit spreads may increase persistently as a result of interaction between changes in spreads and volatilities, making emerging bond markets more turbulent. The results suggest that emerging countries should endeavor to develop a stabilization mechanism by enhancing information efficiency in bond markets. In particular, because Asian countries have experienced persistent, overreactive volatility, this paper implies that Asian countries should work together more closely during financial crisis periods.     

农业剩余转化与动态发展牵扯:以工补农新机制解析

"以工补农"不能单纯地从同情"三农"态度出发研究"单向的以工补农",而应从深入剖析工业化过程中的工业和农业互动关系出发,积极探索"双向的以工补农"机制。从工业化过程中工农互动机制中寻找到一个"以工补农"机制的新视角,通过构建基于工业化的"农业剩余转化"模型,重点分析工业化过程中的农业剩余转化和农业深化发展动态关系的"以工补农"机制。在工业化过程中,要根据工农关系不同阶段的特征,采取不同的工农互动关系调节方法,即不同的"以工补农"策略,促进工业和农业互动协调发展。     

Stochastic Dominance Analysis of iShares

Abstract

Country indices as represented by iShares exhibit non-normal return distributions with both skewness and kurtosis. Earlier studies provide procedures for determining the statistical significance of stochastic dominance measures and the Sharpe Ratio. This present study uses these refinements to compare the performance of 18 country market indices. The iShares are indistinguishable when using the Sharpe Ratio as no significant differences are found. In contrast, stochastic dominance procedures identify dominant iShares. Although the results vary over time, stochastic dominance appears to be both more robust and discriminating than the CAPM in the ranking of the iShares.     

家电下乡财政补贴分配机制研究

家电下乡财政补贴是国家引导消费、扩大内需的一项惠民政策。财政补贴是在农民和供应者之间进行的分配,在短期内双方获得的财政补贴与供给曲线的斜率成反比,并且是通过家电的涨价得以实现;中长期内则是由财政补贴家电下乡扩大内需和创造供给两方面的作用的博弈,通过供求曲线的移动实现。通过对财政补贴去向及其影响因素的分析,揭示农民受益、扩大内需、下乡效果三者之间的关系。     

Corruption and Tourism: An Empirical Investigation in a Non‐linear Framework

This article investigates the effect of corruption on tourism demand for a panel of countries during 1999–2009 by using panel least square and fixed effects regressions. Prior research has considered only the linear effects of corruption on tourism. We examine the relationship between corruption and tourism in a non‐linear framework after controlling for economic and heritage factors. The findings suggest that corruption has a significant effect on tourism demand and that this effect is non‐linear. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

人本主义视角下的乡村居住空间改造方式探析

全国各地的新农村建设正如火如荼地展开,然而各地的乡村居住空间改造在过度理性规划下普遍暗含着对人性化的漠视与缺失,对环境和资源造成的损失是不可估量的。从芒福德的人本主义出发,剖析目前乡村居住空间改造中存在的问题,试图引起人们对协调发展和保护环境的重视和反思,并结合人本主义对乡村居住空间改造方式提出建议和途径。     

论中国企业并购发达国家企业的难点与对策

随着中国大陆经济的发展,部分实力雄厚的大陆企业(以下简称中国企业)开始并购西方发达国家企业,成功的并购有利于中国融入世界经济版图,但困难重重。因此,本文通过对中国企业在并购西方发达国家企业时遇到的难点进行深入分析,提出了若干应对对策。     

The impact of production offshoring on the skill composition of manufacturing firms: evidence from Italy

In this work we explore how the international outsourcing of production impacts the skill composition of employment within Italian manufacturing firms. In particular, our aim is to assess whether the choice to offshore production activities to cheap‐labour countries implies a bias in the employment of skilled workers relative to unskilled ones.

Using a balanced panel of firms covering the period 1995–2003, we set up a counterfactual analysis in which, by using a difference‐in‐differences propensity score matching estimator, we compare the dynamics of skill demand for treated and control firms while addressing the possible problem of selection bias.

Our results identify a ‘potential’ skill bias effect of production offshoring. In particular, we find that treated firms tend to show an upward shift in the skill ratio with respect to the counterfactual sample, but coefficients are not significantly different from zero. When we look at the elements of the skill ratio separately, we find that the skill bias is driven by a fall in the employment of production workers (blue collars), rather than by the increase in the employment of non‐production workers (white collars), thus providing further evidence on the unskilled labour‐saving nature of international outsourcing.     

Who votes for public environmental goods in California?: Evidence from a spatial analysis of voting for environmental ballot measures

Voting referenda provide direct evidence of the demand for public goods. A number of previous studies have used referenda to analyze the support for public environmental goods. These studies have used aggregate data from large jurisdictional units (usually counties) and summary income measures such as the mean or median, and have usually found that higher income areas offer greater support for environmental propositions. We examine environmental referenda voting in California using census block group data, spatial dependence controls, and detailed income distribution data. We find that household income has a negative marginal effect on environmental referenda voting for most of the income range when using census block data. In addition, controls for spatial dependence significantly reduce the magnitude of most coefficients. This suggests that OLS estimates of referenda determinants are biased. We also show that county level data may be subject to severe aggregation bias and might not be appropriate for referenda studies.