Asset allocation in markets with contagion: The interplay between volatilities,jump intensities,and correlations

We study the impact of financial contagion on the dynamic asset allocation problem of a CRRA investor facing an incomplete market with two risky assets. We apply a Markov chain regime-switching framework with state-dependent jump intensities, diffusion volatilities and diffusion correlations. The key model feature that a switch to the bad contagion regime is triggered by a loss in one of the risky assets allows for the implementation of a hedging demand against contagion risk. Moreover, a state-dependent diffusion correlation combined with heterogeneity in jump intensities and volatilities can, e.g., generate a flight to quality effect upon a systemic jump.     

泡沫时期中国权证产品收益率的可预测性研究

本文运用Black-Scholes公式计算权证的理论价格并和权证实际价格比较,发现权证的实际价格严重偏离理论价格,权证产品处于泡沫时期。通过Campbell和Yogo(2005)提出的Bonferroni检验方法,我们发现两个新的预测变量———权证与标的股票的交易金额比值和换手率比值,对于权证产品的收益率具有预测能力。     

浅析国有商业银行不良贷款资产证券化

本文在分析了我国国有商业银行不良资产以及证券化的现状的基础上,通过对国有银行不良贷款资产证券化的可行性分析,为我国国有商业银行不良资产证券化提供了相应的政策建议。     

Gross national accumulation

Low birth rates, longevity, family disintegration, and other factors have reduced the size of the average household. At the same time household size is shrinking, new housing offers twice the floor space per occupant of old housing. Small households are inefficient users of space, utilities, furniture, and equipment. As these factors converge, the result is over consumption of durables and vast stockpiles of possessions just awaiting disposal when the baby boom generation passes on. The rightful heirs to these possessions are themselves accumulators, and will most likely have little use for what is left to them. What does the future hold for consumption, savings, and demand for housing? Booming flea markets, bigger homes as warehouses, a decline in consumption, or an epidemic of display and collection? Public policies have limited leverage on private behavior.     

"按族裔划分家庭年均收入"标准的实质

通过对各族裔家庭年均收入差距形成的原因进行分析,探讨了当今美国社会中流行的“模范少数民族”理论和“文化缺损理论”,并指出了以家庭年均收入水平为标准来衡量各族裔在美国社会中对经济资源的占有是不科学的,这个标准的提出是多数族裔掩盖各族裔在社会经济资源占有上实质上的不平等的体现。它的使用是多数族裔的政治性行为,其目的是为了巩固多数族裔已取得的政治、经济和社会地位。     

居民金融资产结构变化与国债认购空间分析

国债是居民持有的重要金融资产,居民对其金融资产结构的调整会影响国债的发行规模,本文通过国际比较分析总结了居民金融资产结构变化的规律。并考察了我国居民金融资产流量结构的变化趋势和国债在居民金融资产结构中的地位,为此为基础,对“十五”期间政府面向居民可以发生国债的规模进行了预测。     

Maximum likelihood estimation of the double exponential jump-diffusion process

The double exponential jump-diffusion (DEJD) model, recently proposed by Kou (Manage Sci 48(8), 1086–1101, 2002) and Ramezani and Zeng (http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=606361, 1998), generates a highly skewed and leptokurtic distribution and is capable of matching key features of stock and index returns. Moreover, DEJD leads to tractable pricing formulas for exotic and path dependent options (Kou and Wang Manage Sci 50(9), 1178–1192, 2004). Accordingly, the double exponential representation has gained wide acceptance. However, estimation and empirical assessment of this model has received little attention to date. The primary objective of this paper is to fill this gap. We use daily returns for the S&;P-500 and the NASDAQ indexes and individual stocks, in conjunction with maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) to fit the DEJD model. We utilize the BIC criterion to assess the performance of DEJD relative to log-normally distributed jump-diffusion (LJD) and the geometric brownian motion (GBM). We find that DEJD performs better than these alternatives for both indexes and individual stocks.     

GDP growth and currency valuation: The case of the dollar

One popular view on the strength of the US dollar around the turn of the century is that the higher growth in the US compared to Europe had stimulated foreigners to buy American assets, thereby driving up the exchange rate. In this paper a modified portfolio balance model is presented, in which it is shown that the impact of output growth on the exchange rate depends crucially on the origin of this growth. An improvement of the output gap is shown to actually depress the exchange rate whereas an increase in potential output growth leads to an appreciation, especially if this improvement is likely to be persistent. In an empirical example, it is shown that the equilibrium real dollar rate is indeed positively affected by high trend growth in the US, whereas it is negatively affected by a positive output gap. The model outperforms the random walk in forecasting future real dollar rates one to eight quarters ahead.     

Rare events and annuity market participation

We investigate whether a rare event (like the default of the annuity provider) can explain the annuity market participation puzzle. High risk aversion is needed to change behavior in the presence of such a disastrous shock but higher risk aversion also makes annuities more valuable. Therefore, these rare events are unlikely candidates to explain the low take-up of voluntary annuities: the conclusion is robust to disentangling risk aversion from intertemporal substitution and to allowing portfolio investment in a stock market index.