Modelling the implied volatility surface based on Shanghai 50ETF options

We develop a dynamic factor model to forecast the implied volatility surface (IVS) of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50ETF options. Based on the assumption that dynamic change in IVS is mean-reverting and Markovian, we use a state space model to capture the dynamics of IVS, and set the latent factors to be the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes. We obtain the optimal estimations of parameters using the Kalman filter algorithm. Empirical results show that our model performs better than the traditional IVS model in terms of fitting ability and prediction performance.     

我国商业银行体系脆弱性形成因素及应对策略

美国次贷危机引发的全球金融危机迅速蔓延,并对世界经济体系和金融体系造成严重损害。我国商业银行体系脆弱性现况明显,本文从我国国有银行的现况进行分析,然后对其原因进行分析。介绍了因子分析的思想及方法,然后运用因子分析模型进行了数据分析。最后提出防范国有商业银行脆弱性的对策和建议。     

Efficiency evaluation of the regional high-tech industry in China: A new framework based on meta-frontier dynamic DEA analysis

This paper proposes a new framework based on the combination of the dynamic DEA, meta-frontier analysis theory, and truncated regression model, and then focuses on the efficiency evaluation of regional high-tech industries in China. For all of the overall technical efficiency, technical efficiency, and scale efficiency scores, the east area is always in the lead, with the central and west areas obviously lagging behind. The eastern area has the highest technology level, whereas the west and central areas fall behind in turn. However, the meta-technology ratio of the west area has rapidly increased and presents a trend of catching up with the east. The variables of GRP per capital, total exports and imports, highway mileage per capita, and ratio of tertiary industry to GRP have positive relationships with technical efficiency, and the time trend exhibits a negative coefficient.     

基于IPA方法的非中心城市酒店一线员工满意度研究

酒店业普遍存在一线员工工作满意度过低的问题,导致一线员工频繁地跳槽,人才流失严重,影响了整个酒店业的发展。在如今一线中心城市尚且存在高度"用工荒"的情况下,非中心城市的星级酒店如何留住一线员工?本文通过对市级不同星级酒店的实地调查研究以及对个别酒店领导的访谈,通过IPA方法分析了影响一线员工工作满意度的具体因素。     

Modelo de gestión logística para pequeñas y medianas empresas en México

The market opening and the globalization of supply chains, demand a structural changes in which logistics has a strategic role. Nowadays, clients evaluate product quality, its value added and its availability in time and form, which implies a need to make the process efficient. Several experts have proposed some logistics management models to increase competitiveness in the market, but some of these models are too ambitious for small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) due to their informal structure and their lack of technical knowledge; other models make indirect reference to the internal information flows, which include whole system disintegration because of the weak interrelation among the different areas. In Mexico, SMEs represent 4.2%, they generate 31.5% of employment and provide 37% of the gross domestic product; that is why it is important to reinforce their competitive position in the market. This research presents the design of a conceptual model of logistic management for SMEs which could provide comprehensive solution through control of the variables involved in the logistics process; to verify that the variables considered in each identified dimension are correct factor analysis was used.     

基于结构方程模型的物流企业品牌培育影响因素实证研究

通过专家咨询和行业访谈，设计了物流企业品牌培育影响因素的调查问卷，并开展了深度访谈和实地调研，基于结构方程原理构建了物流企业品牌培育影响因素模型，利用AMOS17.0软件和SPSS17.0软件对获得的数据进行了测量和分析。研究认为产业支撑和资源基础是物流企业品牌创建和成长的天然土壤，同时，政府扶持政策及行业协会对品牌的经营管理，对提高物流企业品牌的知名度和价值有着至关重要的作用。     

因子分析中公因子提取方法的比较与选择

近代和现代统计分析方法中，因子分析是最重要的方法之一。因子分析中有7种提取公因子的方法，其中主成分法、极大似然法和主轴因子法是常用的方法。在着重解析这三种方法基本数学过程的基础上，对其适用条件和应用注意事项进行了比较，最后结合实例比较了不同公因子提取方法的结果，并对提取公因子过程中出现的问题给出了可能的解决办法。     

基于因子与聚类分析的江苏省邮政业务协同运作实效研究

中国邮政业务出现了发展缓慢、停滞甚至倒退的现象,邮政业务创新成为不可回避的现实问题。通过2013年江苏邮政通信企业统计数据,对江苏13个邮政局的邮政各类业务协同发展水平状况以及资产配置水平进行因子分析和聚类分析。得出江苏省邮政业务地区发展的层次分布情况,分析了业务发展差距的原因,并总结了邮政在协同发展邮政业务的经验。     

Do housing prices promote total factor productivity? Evidence from spatial panel data models in explaining the mediating role of population density

The issue of what to promote in total factor productivity (TFP) in urban areas has been widely discussed in academia and housing prices and population density are confirmed to be two of the most essential driving factors. However, research into the interaction of housing prices and population density with TFP has been neglected, with no previous studies taking spatial factors into consideration, which may bias the results. From this perspective, using spatial panel data models and employing instrumental variables to solve the endogenous problem, this study examines the impact of housing prices on TFP through the mediating effect of population density for 283 Chinese cities during the period 2000–2013, and confirms that the mediating effect accounts for 18.70 % of the total effect. The results show the positive and significant association of housing prices with TFP and the inverted U-shape of population density. The underlying logic is that housing prices change population density by attracting people with high purchasing power and discouraging those unable to afford housing, whereas increased density helps to promote productivity since the settled inhabitants always have highly developed work skills and are well educated. The influencing mechanism of housing prices on TFP through population density is analyzed, namely the spillover effect. We find that the spillover effect exists in the eastern and central regions, as well as first, second, and third tier cities, while for western regions and fifth tier cities, population mobility and increased in housing prices slows their economic development. There is no evidence of any spillover effect in fourth tier cities. A discussion and suggested policy implications are also provided.     

Drivers of research impact: evidence from the top three finance journals

We study the characteristics of all published papers in the top three finance journals (JF, JFE and RFS), and how these paper characteristics affect the number of citations in Google Scholar and the Web of Science database. First, we find the characteristics in the universalist perspective remain constant while the characteristics in the constructivist and presentation perspectives increase over time. Second, some characteristics are significantly different between the high-impact and the low-impact papers. Third, paper quality, research method, journal placement and paper age are the most important drivers. Last, different drivers play different roles in different journals.