有限理性下的个体决策：一种分析框架

本文试图延续Shesheinski（2003）的分析思路，通过有限理性的模型化使有限理性下的个体决策重新与经济学的福利最大化和边际决策联系起来。在此基础上，我们先后分析了有限理性结构下的纯个体决策和集体行动中的个体决策问题。同时，对集体行动中的有限理性和理性决策进行初步的比较与分析。得出了有限理性下的最优决策规模要大于理性决策规模的结论。     

Capital theory and the origins of the elasticity of substitution (1932-35)

Elasticity of substitution was introduced into economics duringthe early 1930s. It was discovered independently by Hicks inThe Theory of Wages and by Joan Robinson in The Economics ofImperfect Competition, and then was the centre of a polemicinvolving Kahn and Sraffa, among others. The debate focusedon imperfect competition and capital-theoretical issues. Someelements of the 1950s and 1960s capital theory controversy,such as the idea of capital as a Giffen good or the difficultiesof measuring capital, were already discussed at this early stage.     

Volatility trade-offs in exchange rate target zones

The volatility trade-offs (i.e. the negative relationships between exchange rate variability and the interest rate differential) exhibited in the Krugman [Krugman, P. (1991). Target zones and exchange rate dynamics. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106, 669–682.] model depend on the assumption of uncovered interest rate parity (UIP). However, the bands for several economies in Latin America and Eastern Europe are substantially different from those within the European Monetary System (EMS), in that their parity relationship deviates from UIP and volatility trade-offs do not exist. This paper develops a graphical exposition and uses it to show that the degree of capital mobility may serve as a plausible vehicle to explain the empirical evidence found in Krugman's regime of exchange rate target zones. Based on a Fleming-type stochastic macro model, we find that when capital mobility is relatively low, exchange rate variability exhibits a positive relationship with the interest rate differential. This result can be regarded as a possible way of resolving the conflicting outcomes between Krugman's prediction and existing empirical observations.     

Ex-post efficient permit markets: a detailed analysis

This paper provides a detailed analysis of ex-post efficient permit markets. After a short review of institutional designs that can achieve ex-post efficiency under uncertainty and asymmetric information, we analyze the effects of an ex-post efficient regulation on the expected costs of the regulated firms, on their investment behavior, and on the incentives for strategic behavior on imperfectly competitive permit markets. Also we inquire about the budget effects of the regulation. Our results show that ex-post efficient permit markets have considerable benefits beside the direct increase in expected social welfare.      

死刑观的认知基础

民众对待死刑的态度具有复杂性和可变性,他们的死刑观总体上都可以归于“死刑有威慑力”的功利理性和“死刑适用是否公平”的道义理性。功利理性的认知基础包括威胁感知、死刑威慑作用的估计、当前死刑数量的估计、死刑的经济成本等因素;道义理性的认知基础包括公正世界信念、归因方式、对死刑适用中不公平因素的估计等因素。公众对死刑的态度融合了功利与道义两方面考虑,不同情境下会进行相应的权衡取舍。传统文化中的集体主义和现代社会对社会秩序的强调也融贯在一起,影响着人们对死刑的态度。     

不完全信息条件下商业集群形成的问题研究

商业集群在人们生活中所起的作用日益重要,针对国外许多大型商业集群,如购物中心等通常都建立在郊区的情形,文章借助于Salop.S.C的环形市场模型,对不完全信息条件下商业集群形成的原因进行了分析,得出的结论是:在不完全信息条件下,由于运输成本的存在,消费者对欲购商品的最优搜寻是从商业集群处开始。由于商业集群的魅力所在,就导致了消费者有可能舍近求远,直接到距离较远的商店集聚区进行购物,而不是选择在距离较近的孤立商店购物。据此给出的政策性建议是:当我们在进行城市建设规划时,在交通设施比较完备的条件下,为了节约市区的稀缺资源,可以有选择的在郊区建立一些商业集群,如大型购物中心等,这样既可以有效缓解市内交通拥堵的压力,也可以有效提高资源的配置效率。     

Partitions and Coalitional Stability with Non-dominant and Dominant Members

The analysis presented in this paper applies coalitional game theory to an analysis of imperfectly competitive firms producing a homogeneous product. Coalitions consisting of equal partners and no capacity constraints tend to be stable. Grand coalitions consisting of unequal members tend to be unstable. In this case, an intra-coalitional utility transfer may cement the coalition, but the outcome tends to be the same as that in coalitions consisting of equal partners. Coalitions consisting of fewer, unequal members may be possible, however, even in the absence of intra-coalitional utility transfers. Finally, grand coalitions may be possible if subordinate members are capacity constrained.

风险社会视域下科技理性的悖论与超越

科技理性是滥觞于西欧的世界现代化进程的精神根基,对科技理性的张扬及其社会后果的反思和批判,都是学术界经久不衰的热门话题。作为一种新兴的社会批判理论,风险社会理论打开了科技理性批判的新视域。在全球化背景下,现代社会面临的前所未有的新风险使科技理性的悖论昭然若揭。要应对全球风险,必须超越科技理性的悖论,实现科技理性与社会理性的大融合。     

中国近代股市监管的兴起与演变:1873-1949年

直观可以推测近代股市监管能力和效果都比较差,但是当时的真实情形究竟是怎样的呢?本文从监管机构的出现、股市监管立法、实际执法、政府对交易所的控制,以及市场危机处理这五个方面考察了这一阶段股市监管的特征与变迁。我们发现:在这70多年间,(1)各个时期的政府都能比较及时地移植外国的法律,纸面上的法律还是非常丰富、全面的,但是实际执法效果非常差;(2)专门的、中央集权的监管机构很快诞生,行政管理的力量在多层次监管体系中处于最重要的地位;(3)政府从来没有建立起完整而严格的信息披露制度,政府的有限力量被投放到了如何控制股市上,而不是提供公平的游戏规则。这种监管结构的成因或许可从一个“以毒攻毒”的制度三角形进行解释:随时可以剥夺企业财产的强势政府促成了企业在上市时藏匿各种重要信息的后果;上市公司信息披露不足又严重制约了监管执法的有效性;有效法治的缺失反过来又强化了政府的权力和对企业的任意掠夺。     

Consumer misperceptions,uncertain fundamentals,and the business cycle

This paper estimates the importance of shocks to consumer misperceptions “noise shocks” for U.S. business cycle fluctuations. I embed imperfect information as in Lorenzoni (2009) into a Smets and Wouters (2007)-type DSGE model. Agents only observe aggregate productivity and a signal about the permanent component contaminated with noise. Based on this information agents form beliefs about the temporary and the permanent component of productivity. Shocks to the signal (noise shocks) trigger aggregate fluctuations unrelated to changes in productivity. Bayesian estimation shows that noise shocks explain up to 14 percent of output and up to 25 percent of consumption fluctuations. Nominal rigidities and the specification of the monetary policy rule are crucial for the importance of noise shocks. These features help to resolve conflicting results in the previous literature.