Diversity in foresight: Insights from the fostering of innovation ideas

Foresight activities have often provided support for objectives such as priority-setting, networking and consensual vision-building. In this paper, we draw upon complementary evolutionary perspectives and discuss these objectives from the viewpoint of diversity which may be vital in contexts characterized by technological discontinuities and high uncertainties. We also argue that although the scanning of weak signals has been widely advocated in such contexts, the solicitation of ideas for prospective innovations may provide more focused, action-oriented, and comparable reflections of future developments. For the analysis of such ideas, we develop a collaborative foresight method RPM Screening which consists of phases for the generation, revision, multi-criteria evaluation, and portfolio analysis of innovation ideas. We also report experiences from a pilot project where this method was employed to enhance the work of the Foresight Forum of the Ministry of Trade and Industry in Finland. Encouraging results from this project and other recent applications suggest that RPM Screening can be helpful in foresight processes and the development of shared research agendas.     

网络口碑信息对消费者购买决策的影响：一个实验研究

本文通过实验法考察了网络口碑信息对消费者购买决策的影响，就网络口碑的影响力在口碑信息类型、传播方向和产品涉入度不同的情况下会表现出哪些差异等问题作了分析。实验结果支持了所提出的6项假设，网络口碑信息对于消费者购买决策的影响力可能会随着口碑传播方向、信息类型以及产品卷入度的不同而呈现出显著差异的预测得到了证实；信息类型、传播方向和产品卷入度之间所存在的交互效应也会明显地作用到网络口碑对消费者购买决策的影响效果。     

集体行动的逻辑与可持续发展的困境

个体理性的效率追求是经济活动的动力,但个体理性往往导致集体非理性。本文从个体理性与集体理性概念的相对性出发,探讨个体、地方政府、国家在经济活动中本位利益的追求与可持续发展目标的背离。纯粹的市场效率追求会导致“市场失灵,”政府在解决“市场失灵”时如果无法有效约束个体理性的本位利益追求与政绩偏好,在可持续发展问题上就会出现一定程度的“政府失灵”。在“双重失灵”的情况下,集体行动的逻辑必然导致可持续发展陷入困境。要在个体理性的效率追求与集体理性的“共同信念”中实现可持续发展战略,必须明确政府责任并进行追加性制度投资。     

基于判别分析的R＆D项目中止决策

R＆D项目中止决策是R＆D管理过程中一项非常重要的工作，有效、及时的中止决策对于优化科技资源配置、提高创新效率有着非常重要的意义。本文在对已有的R＆D项目中止决策方法简要回顾基础上，根据R＆D项目中止决策实质，给出了一种基于已有数据判别分析的R＆D项目中止决策方法和步骤，并进行了示例计算。结果表明，该方法较为简便有效，易于操作。     

冲动性购买行为的实证分析及其营销策略

消费者的冲动性购买行为是多种因素共同作用的结果。其中，外在刺激起主要影响作用，个人内在因素也有不可忽略的影响。这一研究结果对企业的意义在于：消费者的冲动性购买行为是可诱导、可激发的；企业可以针对冲动性购买行为的影响因素采取相应的营销措施和手段，有效地引导或诱导消费者冲动性购买欲望，从而推动和促进冲动性购买行为的最终实现。     

增强高校人文社会科学研究竞争力初探

本文分析和研究了高校人文社会科学研究竞争力评价指标体系,并以部分财经类高校为研究案例,提出了增强高校人文社会科学研究竞争力,实施“三优”战略的决策建议。     

民主决策：新世纪条件下的战略选择

民主决策是新世纪条件下领导方式的一个战略选择。要实现决策民主，不仅领导者必须具有较高的民主素养，而且要完善和发展民主集中制，加强法律控制，改革决策机制，健全群众监督制度。在实行民主决策过程中，还应处理好集体决策与个人拍板、民主与集中先后顺序、连续性与创造性、抓大与放小的关系。     

Managerial judgment and forecast combination: An experimental study

This paper examines the role of managerial judgment in forming a final forecast, or judging the achievability of a critical level of sales, when multiple forecasts or opinions are available to the decision maker. Several factors that can help improve the quality of human intervention are identified and incorporated in a decision aid. Experimental results show that aided combination can help the decision maker exploit her relevant private information and mitigate the generally observed negative effects of human intervention. Further, the results suggest that emphasizing expected sales, even when the organization is primarily interested in go/no-go decisions, helps improve performance. Several suggestions for future research are presented.

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Exploring the boundaries of the framing effect: The moderating roles of disparate expected values and perceived costs of judgmental errors

Framing effects on retail store choice decisions were investigated in four experiments. Subjects preferred the store that guaranteed (a sure option) good prices (experiment 1), product availability (experiment 2), or a rebate (experiment 3) when consequences were framed in terms of gains; subjects preferred the risky option when consequences were framed in terms of losses. Consistent with fuzzy-trace theory, framing effects were reduced when the expected values of options were disparate in a direction that disfavored sure gain or probabilistic loss options (experiment 2) and when the perceived costs of committing a judgmental error were high (experiment 3). Experiment 4 shows that the moderating effects of disparate expected values and costs of judgment errors generalize to within-subject designs.     

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