What do scientists know about inflation hedging?

In this article, we give an overview of the state of scientific knowledge on inflation hedging. Specifically, we distill the results of several decades of research analysing the relationship between major asset classes (common stocks, gold, fixed income securities, real estate) and inflation. Even though previous studies have brought forth important facts characterising the interplay of asset returns and inflation rates (e.g., time-dependency, asymmetry, outlier-sensitivity and a tendency towards long-term but limited short-term inflation protection), there is still no consensus on the subject because sample, data and methodology issues preclude strict comparison of most studies. Thus, from a synthesis of the insights gained from our review, we also outline possible directions for future research that may help to establish consensus among researchers.     

The design and communication of systematic monetary policy strategies

The efficacy of central bank communications is inextricably linked to the characteristics of the monetary policy framework. Therefore, this paper presents a set of fundamental principles regarding the joint design of monetary policy strategy and communications. The practical implications of these principles are illustrated by considering a number of significant policy challenges faced by central banks in the advanced economies.     

Central bank’s forecasts and lack of transparency: An assessment of the effect on private expectations in a large emerging economy

We analyze whether the Central Bank of Brazil’s Inflation Reports projections influences the private’s inflation expectations. Specifically, we investigate how the central bank’s inflation forecasts affect the private sector’s inflation expectations through a qualitative and quantitative examination of the disagreement measure between them. Furthermore, we appraise if the lack of transparency resulting from the difference between the central bank’s inflation forecasts and the realized inflation affects the private’s inflation expectations. Although the findings confirm the previous studies that point out that the central bank transparency can affect the readjustment of market expectations, the results do not rule out the possibility of the central bank’s forecast and private’s inflation expectations being affected reciprocally.     

中国贸易开放度、贸易结构与通货膨胀不确定性关系

完全预期到的通货膨胀在理论上并不会对真实经济活动产生实质性的影响,通货膨胀的真正危害在于它的不确定性。随着贸易开放的不断扩大和深化,影响中国通货膨胀的不确定性的因素变得更加复杂。本文利用EGARCH模型估计了中国的通货膨胀不确定性,并在此基础上利用协整分析方法检验了贸易开放度、贸易结构与通货膨胀不确定性的关系。研究表明:贸易开放度的提高对通货膨胀不确定性具有负向的影响;贸易结构的变化对通货膨胀不确定性具有正向的影响。     

On the real effects of inflation and inflation uncertainty in Mexico

We estimate an augmented multivariate GARCH-M model of inflation and output growth for Mexico at business cycle frequencies. The main findings are: (1) inflation uncertainty has a negative and significant effect on growth; (2) once the effect of inflation uncertainty is accounted for, lagged inflation does not have a direct negative effect on output growth; (3) However as predicted by Friedman and Ball, higher average inflation raises inflation uncertainty, and the overall net effect of average inflation on output growth in Mexico is negative. That is, average inflation is harmful to Mexican growth due to its impact on inflation uncertainty. (4) The Mexican Presidential election cycle significantly raises inflation uncertainty both during the year of the election and the year following the election which has correspondingly negative effects on output growth.     

Limits to forecasting in personalized medicine: An overview

Biomedical research is generating massive amounts of information about potential prognostic factors for health and disease. However, few prognostic factors or systems are robustly validated, and still fewer have made a convincing difference in health outcomes or in prolonging life expectancy. For most diseases and outcomes, a considerable component of the prognostic variance remains unknown, and may remain so for the foreseeable future. I discuss here some of the main problems in medical forecasting that pose obstacles to personalized medicine. Their recognition may help identify solutions to improve personalized prognosis, or at least understand and cope with the component of the future that we cannot predict. Much prognostic research is stuck at generating “publishable units”, without any interest in conclusively proving their worth, let alone moving them into real life applications. Information is reported selectively and reporting is deficient. The replication record of prognostic claims is poor. Even among replicated prognostic effects, few are convincingly shown to add much information besides what is already known through more simple, traditional measurements. There are few efforts to systematize prognostic knowledge. Most prognostic effects are subtle when traced to the molecular level, where most current research operates. Many researchers, clinicians, and the public are not appropriately educated to interpret prognostic information. We still have not even agreed on what the important health outcomes are that we want to predict and intervene for, and some subjectivity may be unavoidable. Finally, without concomitant effective, affordable, and non-harmful interventions, prognosis alone is of questionable value, and wrong prognosis or a wrong interpretation thereof can be harmful. The identification of these problems also suggests a roadmap on what could be done to amend them. Solutions include a systematic approach to the design, conduct, reporting, replication, and clinical translation of prognostic research; as well as the education of researchers, clinicians, and the general public. Finally, we need to recognize that perfect individualized health forecasting is not a realistic target in the foreseeable future, and we have to live with considerable residual uncertainty.     

Tax structures in developing countries: Many puzzles and a possible explanation

Tax policies seen in developing countries are puzzling on many dimensions, given the sharp contrast between these policies and both those seen in developed countries and those forecast in the optimal tax literature. In this paper, we explore how forecasted policies change if firms can successfully evade taxes by conducting all business in cash, thereby avoiding any use of the financial sector. The forecasted policies are now much closer to those observed.