中国宏观经济变量平稳性分析

本文采用目前国际上普遍应用的DF和ADF检验方法，对我国主要宏观经济变量的平稳性及单整阶数进行了单位根检验，研究结果显示中国宏观经济变量在5％显著性水平上都是非平稳的。     

The influence of management perception of environmental variables on the choice of international transfer-pricing methods

In this paper, we provide an empirical study of the association between the management's perception of the importance of environmental variables and their choice of international transfer-pricing methods in the context of a developing economy. Given the sizable investment flowing to developing countries and the amount of economic exchange that occurs through foreign investment in these countries, we believe this is a significant issue. For this study, we collected the data from field interviews with the management of large foreign investment enterprises (FIEs) in China. These FIEs include mainly investors from the United States, Japan, and Europe. Our evidence indicates that the more important management perceives the interests of local partners and the maintenance of a good relationship with host government to be, the more likely that the FIE will use a market-based transfer-pricing method. On the other hand, the more important the management perceives foreign exchange controls in transfer-pricing decisions, the more likely the FIE will choose a cost-based method. Finally, there is a moderate agreement between U.S. and non-U.S. FIEs on the relative importance of the environmental variables.     

Socio‐demographic variables,recreational resource use,and attitudes toward development in Camrose,Alberta

The paper examines relationships between socio‐demographic variables, recreational behavior, and attitudes toward development of a natural recreational resource among a city‐wide sample of residents of the city of Camrose, Alberta. Three aspects of recreation behavior, namely participation in recreation in general, participation in selected activities, and use of the resource were found to be associated with four socio‐demographic variables. The relationship with age was the strongest and most consistent, but income, education, and family size were also important. None of the aspects of recreation behavior was related to sex and marital status, nor was it possible to use any of the variables as predictors of the frequency of recreational activity. Respondents additionally differed with regard to the perceived importance of future decisions about the resource, and it was found that variations in preferences for future activities and proposals were consistent with these perceptions and with current use patterns. The findings are discussed in terms of their theoretical contribution to research on socio‐demographic variables arid recreation behavior, notably with reference to opportunity theory, and with reference to their role in choosing strategies of recreational management.     

人口统计变量对汽车制造商品牌资产评价影响之研究——以台湾地区为例

品牌资产（Brand Equity，又称品牌权益）的定义十分多元，但晚近的学者对品牌资产的定义已从厂商观点转换成由消费者的角度来观察，本研究也基于此观．占、探讨不同人口统计变量下的消费者、对品牌资产的评价是否有所不同。由于整个中国的地理区域十分广大、人口变量组合十分复杂，故本研究拟先以台湾地区的消费者进行研究。本研究运用因子分析及变异数分析，发现不同的人口统计变量下会对广告知晓因子、品牌意义因子、品牌知名度因子上有不同的认知态度，但对呈现设计因子、自我认知因子方面，并没有差异。最后，讨论了本文的贡献、研究限制、未来建议，以及管理启示。     

协方差结构模型不收敛原因及解决方法

协方差结构模型实际上是一般线性模型的扩展,它主要利用一定的统计手段对复杂的理论模式加以处理,并根据各种拟合指数对模型作出检验与评价,从而达到证实或证伪事先假设的理论模型的目的。笔者在利用协方差结构模型对北京市居民住房消费行为和意愿进行量化研究时发现协方差结构模型存在不收敛问题,文章提出,导致模型不收敛的原因,一是缺失数据处理方法不当,可采用期望最大化算法(EM算法)和马尔科夫链蒙特卡罗法(MCMC算法)处理数据缺失;二是变量间存在多重共线性,可去掉设置不合理的潜变量以避免共线性问题;三是模型过于复杂,收敛条件苛刻,可调整模型使之简单化,并重新设定收敛条件,促使模型收敛。     

Changes in the risk structure of stock returns: Consumer Confidence and the dotcom bubble

Changes in the risk structure of stock returns may sometimes be very revealing. We examine economic variables that help explain principal components in UK stock returns, 01/1985 to 12/2001. The loading pattern on explanatory variables for the first component in a ‘bubble’ period is distinctive and consistent with a bubble/crash market. The second component shows a loading pattern on a Consumer Confidence variable in a pre-bubble period only. We observe apparently systematic changes in the structure of risk, and conjecture that Consumer Confidence captures a change in market sentiment that could be a signal for the evolution of stock prices.     

我国首次公开发行制度变迁外生变量的影响因素分析

本文认为,我国现在甚至以后影响首次公开发行制度变迁的主导因素已经由改革之初的政府利润预期变为不断出现的市场发展与现行制度的内在矛盾,但外生变量仍具有积极作用。第一,政府和其他制度变迁主体之间具有较强的利益相关性,这使得政府确定的外部规则与其他制度主体所创造的内部规则有激励兼容的可能,政府引进的外部规则有助于内部规则的发育;第二,政府在外部规则创新过程中会同时引进和发现许多制度知识,这些知识会通过各种途径传播开来,从而节约其他制度变迁主体的制度创新成本;第三,其他制度变迁主体之间存在的竞争迫使它们选择相互妥协的制度变迁方案,而成功的市场化经历或失败的市场化教训会吸引政府直接应用符合市场经济的一般规则,缩短其他制度变迁主体制定内部规则的时间。     

我国FCI的构建及对宏观经济变量影响的非对称性

本文首先选取我国多个金融变量,利用动态因子模型提取其共同因子,并对这些因子基于总需求方程缩减式构建了我国金融状况指数(FCI)。接着,基于互谱分析,从频域角度测度了FCI与产出和价格的关联性。最后,以FCI作为转移变量,建立了包含FCI、产出和价格的因子扩展的logistic平滑转移向量自回归(FALSTVAR)模型,基于不同金融状况视角,分析了金融状况指数代表的金融市场对产出和价格影响的非对称性。实证结果表明:第一,金融状况指数不仅与宏观经济具有相同的主周期,而且领先于产出和价格的变动;第二,在金融市场运行良好情形下,金融市场发展能有效地促进实体经济的增长,而在金融市场状况恶化情形下,金融市场会严重阻碍实体经济的增长。     

新疆生产建设兵团团场基本经营制度变迁绩效的实证研究

为了稳定边疆,促进社会经济发展,继续兵团屯垦戍边的事业,农牧团场从1978年开始不断的改革团场基本经营制度,其改革经历了6个阶段。为了分析兵团团场基本经营制度变迁对经济增长的绩效,文章运用实证研究的方法,建立模型,引入虚拟变量,分析团场的基本经营制度变迁与经济发展的关系,计算出每个阶段兵团基本经营制度变迁对经济增长的绩效;并得出结论,兵团基本经营制度的变迁是解放和发展生产力的重要途径,制度变迁的绩效十分明显,体现了效率和公平;最后基于实证分析的结果,提出进一步深化兵团团场基本经营制度的政策建议。     

The productivity of public capital: Evidence from Japan’s 1994 electoral reform

This paper estimates the causal effect of public capital stock on Production, using Japanese prefectural data. We first articulate the difficulty of consistently estimating the regional-level production function with public capital that results from the endogeneity of the public capital stock amount. The public capital amount could be endogenous because of the central government’s political decision-making process of public capital allocation or the local government’s budgetary constraints.Japan’s electoral reform in 1994 offers an exogenous variation in the public capital investment across regions, and we exploit this event to estimate the causal effect of public capital on production. The reform drastically changed the distribution of political representation in the Lower House across regions, and it accordingly changed the allocation of public capital across regions as well. We cannot reject the null hypothesis that public capital is not productive based on the estimates from this natural experimental identification strategy.