基于BP神经网络的服装出口预测

服装出口贸易受到国内国际诸多因素的影响,是一个复杂的非线性系统。BP神经网络能够以任意精度逼近任何一个具有有限间断点的非线性函数,特别适合于解决非线性系统的预测决策问题。采用三层BP神经网络对我国服装出口进行预测,结果表明该方法能有效的对服装出口进行预测。     

EVA思想与企业财务管理目标

与传统的财务管理目标相比,企业价值最大化目标具有很明显的优点,但由于企业价值的难以衡量使该目标在实际推广应用中遇到了困难。EVA指标反映的是企业价值的增值,是衡量企业价值增值的一项具有可操作性的科学指标。笔者认为:以EVA作为评价指标,企业价值最大化目标将会被更多     

Understanding the decision rules for 3D printing adoption

ABSTRACT

While 3D printing is a radically different manufacturing method based on advanced technologies, it has not been adopted to-date with as much alacrity as was originally expected. A variety of hidden rules may influence the broad adoption of this novel technology. The purpose of this study is to explore the decision rules for 3D printing adoption from an organisational perspective. Hybrid approaches are proposed to integrate the technology-organisation-environment (TOE) framework and the rough set theory (RST) in order to generate the decision rule and the determinants for 3D printing adoption. An empirical study on manufacturing enterprises in Taiwan is subsequently carried out, with the results revealing a considerable amount of meaningful information that may therefore be useful in the context of management.     

尺度重构视角下国家战略区域的空间生产策略——基于国家级新区的探讨

全球化背景下,生产组织方式的变革以及资本和技术的快速转移,使区域成为重要的国家生产空间,并引致了国家—区域的治理回应。近年来逐渐出现了沿用尺度重构的理论视角来探讨区域空间生产策略,尺度重构被视为大多数国家应对区域发展问题的重要手段,而国家级新区就是这样一种具有中国特色的尺度重构工具。文章回顾了国家级新区设立、发展的逻辑演变,认为其是国家战略性选择的结果,将政策和优势导向特定的空间尺度,引领了区域的发展。近年来,中央政府更是加大了通过设立国家级新区来重塑区域空间生产策略的行动。最后,文章讨论了国家战略区域空间生产策略体系,并从制度建构、治理重构、规划整合和财税安排等四个方面对善用这种尺度重构工具提出了建议。     

省直管县财政体制改革能否改善民生性公共服务*

本文采用全国县级数据,运用基于倾向得分匹配的双重差分方法,考察了省直管县财政体制改革对民生性公共服务的影响。实证结果表明,省直管县财政体制改革总体上不利于民生性公共服务水平的提高：在医疗服务方面,改革对人均医疗床位数的影响虽不明显,但导致医疗支出比重相比于改革前下降了1167%。在公共教育方面,改革对中小学生数占人口比重产生了负面效应,且导致教育支出比重较改革前下降了419%。另外,笔者还发现,改革对民生性公共服务的抑制作用具有明显的省份差异性和时间滞后性。     

A cost-effectiveness analysis of levodopa/carbidopa intestinal gel compared to standard care in late stage Parkinson’s disease in the UK

Abstract

Objective:

Evaluation of cost-effectiveness of levodopa/carbidopa intestinal gel (LCIG), compared to standard care (SC) in patients with advanced Parkinson’s disease (aPD) in the UK.

Design:

Markov model to quantify costs and outcomes associated with LCIG versus SC in aPD patients at Hoehn and Yahr (H&Y) stages 3, 4 or 5 experiencing >50% OFF time per day. Time horizon was lifetime, LCIG treatment was assumed to last maximal 5 years after which patients revert to SC. Model comprised 12 aPD health states according to H&Y status and daily time spent in OFF state. Cost analyses are reported from a UK NHS and Personal Social Services perspective. Uncertainties were assessed through one-way sensitivity analyses.

Comparators:

LCIG, providing patients with continuous dopaminergic stimulation to maximise functional ON time during the day and SC, defined as medically determined best available oral medication.

Main outcome measures:

Cost-effectiveness, based on quality adjusted life years gained, presented as an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio.

Results:

Lifetime analysis yields an incremental cost per QALY of £36,024 for LCIG compared to SC (incremental cost £39,644, QALY gain 1.1). Results were sensitive to time on treatment, health state on treatment initiation, and estimates of long term benefit (OWSA results from £32,127 to £66,421 per QALY). Findings must be considered in the context of the study limitations which were mainly due to data availability constraints.

Conclusions:

LCIG is an effective treatment, reducing OFF time and improving quality of life in advanced PD. It provides value for money in levodopa-responsive aPD patients with severe motor fluctuations when no other treatment options are effective or suitable. Given LCIG is an orphan drug, it is reasonable to suggest that it may be considered cost-effective in the UK setting. However, further research is needed to complete current data gaps and increase robustness of the model.     

Rewards that undermine customer loyalty? A motivational approach to loyalty programs

Guided by the framework of self‐determination theory (SDT), this study examined the effects of external rewards on undermining customers’ intrinsic motivation to engage in a retail loyalty program. Two experiments revealed that participants who received a salient, controlling reward (i.e., a promise of reward with an explicit requirement and deadline, without options of choice) reported lower intrinsic motivation to use the loyalty program than participants who received a nonsalient, autonomy‐supportive reward (i.e., a promise of reward with a less explicit requirement and no deadline, with options of choice). However, the undermined intrinsic motivation of those who received the salient, controlling reward was enhanced when they were given verbal feedback acknowledging their potential negative feelings associated with using the loyalty program. These findings provide important practical implications for designing a more effective loyalty program.     

基于软件无线电的GNSS干扰和多径监测系统设计

针对干扰和多径导致全球导航卫星系统（GNSS）不能精确、安全和可靠地提供位置、速度和时间服务等问题,分析了研制GNSS干扰和多径监测系统的意义,介绍了当前干扰和多径常用的检测方法,设计了一套针对当前四大导航系统（美国GPS、俄罗斯GLONASS、欧盟Galileo和中国BDS）各信号带内以及附近频率的干扰和多径监测系统。系统基于软件无线电（SDR）思想,采用模块化设计,具有良好的功能扩展性和配置灵活性。根据不同干扰的特点,结合实际应用改进了其检测算法：采用能量阈值法检测不同形式的压制式干扰,采用基于捕获多相关峰法判别欺骗式干扰,采取基于最大似然准则的多径估计延迟锁定环（MEDLL）技术估计多径信号的参数。实验结果表明系统能够有效检测各种干扰和多径信号的存在,使用户获取其特征参数,为干扰源的定位、查处、排除、规避以及多径信号的抑制提供决策依据。     

社会网络、信用水平和中小企业融资

在关系型社会中,网络成员间具有一荣俱荣的关系,因而人们能够通过相互调剂余缺调动网络中其他人的部分资源。众多中小企业主正是依赖于自身社会网络进行融资,其融资规模、融资成本和融资结构等都受到中小企业主的社会网络尤其是网络质量的影响。由于社会网络的规模和质量很大程度上受制于融资者的信用水平,因此,中小企业主只有恪守信用,努力拓展自身社会网络的规模,提高网络质量,优化网络结构,才能真正破解融资难问题。     

基于DSP和CPLD的雷达终端显示系统设计

介绍了一种雷达的显示控制和数据处理平台,分析了主要的硬件选择。整个系统由CPLD控制时序,用DSP对视频数字图像进行处理,并采用乒乓存储的方式实现了实时显示图像信息的目的。